It took two months, but the Baltimore Orioles are finally beginning to resemble the team they expected to be this season. The O's won for the fifth time in six games and the tenth time in 14 games Friday night, blowing out the Blue Jays in Toronto (BAL 13, TOR 3). The Orioles are still in the red at 31-33, but, in the watered-down AL, they're now only a half-game out of a wild card spot.
"Today was a great win. Just continuing to give good ABs in the box and continuing to tack on runs," Adley Rutschman said after going 4 for 4 with a double and a homer (via MLB.com). "I think that was huge, just giving our pitchers the freedom to go out there and attack. I was really happy with this overall performance today and I thought we did a really good job all around."
Rutschman's resurgence has fueled Baltimore's recent success, ditto a pair of Colton Cowser walk-off homers and the emergence of young Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo as foundational pieces on offense. The bullpen has been strong as well, with 2025 waiver claim Rico Garcia emerging as a high-leverage force. He has a 0.68 ERA and has struck out a third of the batters he's faced.
More than anything, though, the O's are thriving now because of their starting pitching, which was the source of so much angst earlier this season and last season. Righty Brandon Young held the Blue Jays to three runs in 6 ⅓ innings Friday. One day earlier, Trevor Rogers threw 5 ⅔ innings of one-run ball. The day before that, Shane Baz allowed two runs in seven innings.
"The biggest thing is the throwing strikes," O's manager Craig Albernaz said after Baz's start (via MLB.com). "When you throw strikes, it gives you the ability to get deeper into the game, because they all have elite stuff. You're not a starting pitcher in this league without elite weapons and fastballs, honestly. These guys are doing a great job of attacking the strike zone."
What's changed for the Orioles' rotation?
Here are the numbers on Baltimore's rotation during this 10-4 stretch that has pushed them back into the wild card mix:
| IP per GS | ERA | FIP | xERA | Strike rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 50 games | 5.0 | 5.11 | 4.72 | 4.61 | 62.3% |
Last 14 games | 5.6 | 2.75 | 4.09 | 4.17 | 66.6% |
The ERA is much improved and the under-the-hood numbers are better as well. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, tells us the O's have done a better job with strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xERA, or expected ERA, tells us they've managed contact better. Basically, their strikeouts are up and their walks are down, and they're allowing less hard contact. All positives, those are.
As Albernaz noted, Baltimore's starters have also upped their strike rate during these last 14 games. The difference between 62.3% and 66.6% may not seem like much, but the league average is 63.5%. That 62.3% was the third-lowest in baseball at the time. No team is over 66.2% for the season, and the O's are at 66.6% in the last 14 games. Going from 62.3% to 66.6% is a big improvement.
"I know it sounds so elementary, but it's a real thing," Albernaez said recently (via the Baltimore Banner). "When you're attacking the strike zone, first-pitch strikes, winning the 1-1 counts, not letting the first batter of an inning walk, or make him earn his way on, all those little things that you've preached since Little League still play here at the big leagues. Our guys really take onus of that, and that's what we're seeing now from our starters."
There are tangible reasons to buy into the improved performance as well. Baz scaled back on his cutter and has begun spamming his curveball. He's gone seven, six, seven, and seven innings in his last four starts, while allowing more than two runs only once. Young has been a revelation, pitching to a 3.47 ERA in his nine starts thanks to an improved splitter.
"Last year the splitter was a new pitch for him, so obviously it was kind of new to the league and guys really hadn't seen it before," assistant pitching coach Mitch Plassmeyer said recently (via MASN). "So now it's on the report to start the year and guys kind of adjusted to it. He made the adjustment back of trying to kill some velo on it, kill some spin, add some depth, just to be able to get to those locations in a little bit different way. Play a little bit more front to back game. I think it was a great identification by him that he needed to make an adjustment and went to work on it, and it's paid off for him."
How can the O's make a real playoff push?
Baltimore's rotation is on a heater and they won't continue to pitch to a 2.75 ERA the rest of the way. I don't want to call it good luck, but that 4.09 FIP and 4.17 xERA tell us their starters have been out over their skis a bit in the last 14 games. There is legitimate improvement in those under-the-hood numbers, though. They've gone from among the worst in baseball to league average or so.
Now, there's nothing sexy about league average, but it represents a big step forward for the O's rotation. Baz is beginning to emerge as a frontline starter, Young and Kyle Bradish have been very good, and perhaps that last start is a sign Rogers is getting on track. Two things can be true: The O's rotation isn't really 2.75 ERA good, but it is much better than it was earlier this season.
As good as the rotation has been, I would like to see the Orioles add a starter at the deadline because Chris Bassitt hasn't been all that reliable and is now dealing with a back issue. Dean Kremer (quad) and Cade Povich (elbow) are expected back at some point, though they're not difference-makers. Don't let good stand in the way of great. An upgrade over Bassitt should be on the trade deadline shopping list.
For now, the AL is very weak and the Orioles still have 98 games to play. They are in the race with lots of time to continue moving up the standings. No reason to panic right now. The O's weren't going to start moving in the right direction until their rotation improved, though, and that has happened. Just about every night now, the starter gives them a chance to win, and is often better than that.
"Seeing your fellow rotation mate succeed, it gives you that confidence, especially if you're pitching in the same series, of like, 'Oh, yeah, Shane just went out and dominated these guys. I can do the same thing,'" Bradish said recently (via the Baltimore Banner). "Does it happen all the time? No. But I think, when you have the majority of your guys throwing well, I think it just lifts up the whole team."
