Mason Miller of the Padres won the 2026 National League Reliever of the Year award on Wednesday evening. That wasn't all too surprising, but I still wanted to explain the thought process behind my ballot. This was an honor, as it was the first-ever Baseball Writers' Association of America award for a relief pitcher. Yes, there have been plenty of reliever awards over the years, but this was the first year the BBWAA handed out such hardware.
My ballot for this one:
1. Mason Miller, Padres
2. Jhoan Duran, Phillies
3. Adrián Morejón, Padres
4. Trevor Megill, Brewers
5. Mason Montgomery, Pirates
And now here's how it unfolded on my end.
First off, I didn't even bother to look at win-loss record. It's a flawed enough stat these days with any individual player, but we really shouldn't be judging relievers by it. I'm also not worried about team performance here, as this is an individual award and we don't even need to wrestle with the word "valuable" being in the title like some MVP voters might. This is simply, "Who was the best relief pitcher in the league?"
What makes the best relievers? Run prevention (ERA, FIP, xFIP, etc.) matters, as does keeping runners off base (WHIP). It's helpful not only to the defense to strike hitters out, but it can also help a reliever bail out his team, so that's going to matter. Workload matters as well, as a reliever eating up as many outs as possible is very valuable to a team. I didn't factor saves as much as keeping leads (blown saves can hurt). Something I find helpful in judging relievers is win probability added. A reliever blowing games is going to be dinged in a big way, while closing down tougher games (one-run leads as opposed to three) is going to score extra via this measure. It's trickier with relievers, but WAR can help tell a story here, too.
Finally, I have no doubt there was some eye test involved. That is, when I'm watching a game, which reliever coming out of the bullpen feels the most imposing to the opposition. Miller, Duran and Megill especially got bonus points here.
A quick rundown of the major stats I examined follows.
Run prevention and keeping guys off base
Among NL relievers, Miller was the best in ERA (1.67), xERA, FIP, xFIP and several other categories. Duran was second in ERA (and xERA, FIP and xFIP) with Yuki Matsui third, Brandyn Garcia fourth and Abner Uribe fifth. Megill was third in FIP, while Montgomery was third in xFIP and Morejón was fourth.
In terms of keeping runners off base, Garcia led NL relievers in WHIP; Megill was second, Miller third, Duran ninth and Montgomery 10th.
Kudos to Garcia for the excellent season, but his workload (51 ⅓ innings) dinged him a bit. Speaking of, Morejón worked 86 innings compared to 70 from Miller, 63 ⅔ from Montgomery, 61 ⅔ from Megill and 59 ⅓ from Duran.
That said, Garcia, Matsui and Uribe are firmly in the mix through these categories.
Missing bats
Miller crushes here. He struck out 129 hitters, giving him 16.6 K/9 and a 47.4 K%. Montgomery was second in strikeout rate at 37.7%. Yes, it was that much of a blowout for Miller. Duran was third at 35.6%. Garcia was sixth, Morejón ninth, Megill 14th, Uribe 25th and Matsui 28th.
Holding leads
Miller tied for the league lead in saves with Riley O'Brien. I never considered O'Brien, as his ERA was north of 4.00.
Miller was also 38 of 41 in save chances. Duran was 33 of 35. Megill had 30 saves and seven holds with only three blown saves. Montgomery had 18 saves and nine holds with three blown saves. Morejón blew five saves, but he had three saves and 28 holds with an awful lot of multi-inning appearances. Uribe had six saves and 23 holds with two blown saves. Garcia? Stellar. He closed down five saves and 18 holds without ever blowing a lead. Matsui never blew a lead either, but he only had one save and 10 holds, meaning he wasn't tasked with much in the way of high-leverage innings. Being teammates with Miller and Morejón (and Jasaon Adam and Bradgley Rodríguez) will do that. As such, along with his relatively low strikeout rate, we can safely eliminate Matsui.
By the time I've gotten here, I have seven players for five spots: Miller, Morejón, Duran, Megill, Montgomery, Uribe and Garcia.
WPA/WAR
Let's start with WAR.
Using the FanGraphs calculation, Miller leads the way by a country mile at 3.7. Duran is second at 2.9, with Morejón at 2.8 and Megill at 2.5. Montgomery is eighth, Uribe ninth and Garcia, due in part to the workload concern, down at 17th.
Over on Baseball Reference's version, Duran actually leads the way at 3.4. Miller is next at 3.1, followed by Montgomery (2.4) and Uribe (2.3). Megill sits at 1.7 while both Morejón and Garcia are at 1.9.
In WPA, yes, Miller leads the way again at 4.56. Uribe is second at 3.49, with Morejón third at 3.23, Montgomery fourth at 2.86, Megill seventh, Garcia eighth and Duran 11th.
Miller in first place wasn't all too difficult. He was the best relief pitcher in baseball in 2026 and checked every single box.
I had trouble with Duran over Morejón, while Megill and Montgomery were also very close in that group, as were Uribe and Garcia. I ended up leaning on Duran's high strikeout rate and excellent run prevention, which helped clear the way for his lead in WAR. Morejón's workload meant I couldn't go any lower than third with him, given how many important outs he soaked up for the Padres. Megill's regular-season numbers were better than Uribe's, notably the under-the-hood numbers, even if they were very close. And Montgomery was an absolute beast for the Pirates.
It was incredibly tough to leave Uribe off, and Garcia was my hard-luck seventh-place finisher here when I had only five spots on my ballot.
