MLB wild card picks: Reds at Dodgers Game 1 prediction, props, best bets for Tuesday, Sept. 30
Check out the best bets for Tuesday's series opener between Los Angeles and Cincinnati on ESPN
A 1-0 lead in the National League Wild Card Series will be on the line when the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of the best-of-three series on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers (93-69) enter the postseason as the No. 3 seed in the NL after winning the NL West for the 12th time in the last 13 years. Meanwhile, the Reds (83-79) earned the third and final wild card spot on the final day of the regular season after the Mets lost to the Marlins. First pitch is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown on ESPN.
If you're looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Dodgers vs. Reds odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Inside the Lines team model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.
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The Game 1 pitching matchup features two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA) taking the mound for Los Angeles against hard-throwing Cincinnati ace Hunter Greene (7-4, 2.76). Snell, who signed a five-year, $182 million contract in the offseason to join the Dodgers, finished the regular season on a roll, going 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. In 12 career postseason appearances, which include 10 starts, he is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA.
The lefty will face a Cincinnati ballclub that has struggled getting runners across the plate recently. In the month of September, the Reds scored just 105 runs (in 25 games), which ranked 20th in all of baseball.
Meanwhile, the 26-year-old Greene, who went 2-0 with a 2.64 ERA in September, will be making his first career postseason start. The game will be a homecoming for Greene, who attended Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, 22 miles away from Dodger Stadium. In five career starts against his hometown team, Greene is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA.
The Los Angeles lineup poses quite the challenge. Led by Shohei Ohtani, who hit a franchise-best 55 home runs this season, the Dodgers banged out 244 homers, the second most in the majors and behind only the Yankees (274).
Top sportsbooks have set Greene's total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5 and Snell's at 6.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Greene Over 5.5 strikeouts as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Snell Over 6.5 as a 3-star play.
Ohtani is the +186 favorite to hit a home run at DraftKings. He's followed by Max Muncy (+372), Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez (both +392), Mookie Betts (+442) and Andy Pages (+468).
Check out the model's plays for Dodgers vs. Reds on Tuesday:
CINCINNATI REDS at LOS ANGELES DODGERS | 9/30 | 9:08 p.m. ET
Money line
Pick: Reds +168
Cincinnati wins in 41% of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Run line
Pick: Reds +1.5 (-132)
Cincinnati covers in 65% of simulations
Over/Under
Pick: Over 7 (-116)
The Over hits in 60.1% of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Projected score: Dodgers 4.8, Reds 4.2
