MLB trends: Yoshinobu Yamamoto flies under the radar, Yankees fly like the wind, Royals launch fly balls
Here's what's happening around the league as August wraps up
By
Mike Axisa
•
6 min read
The trade deadline has come and gone and the dog days of summer have arrived. Fewer than five weeks remain in the 2025 MLB regular season. The various postseason and awards races have begun to really heat up, and very meaningful games will be played every night. Here are three trends worth keeping an eye on as baseball heads into the stretch drive.
The underrated Yamamoto
It is somewhat remarkable that, just one year after signing a pitcher record $325 million contract and being the postseason ace of a World Series winner, Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto is seemingly flying under the radar. Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are battling it out for the title of Best Pitcher in Baseball, Garrett Crochet and Cristopher Sánchez have been phenomenal, and others like Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Logan Webb, and the now injured Zack Wheeler have been terrific.
Then there's Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who struck out six in six innings of two-run ball against the rival Padres on Sunday, raising his ERA ever so slightly to 2.90. It was the 15th time in 25 starts he allowed two runs or fewer. Entering play Tuesday, 57 pitchers had thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Among those 57, Yamamoto ranks:
- 12th in ERA (2.90)
- 10th in FIP (3.17)
- 4th in expected ERA (2.78)
- 10th in strikeout rate (27.9%)
- 8th in ground ball rate (52.8%)
- 2nd in barrel rate (5.6%) (what's this?)
Yamamoto is also 16th in called strike rate (17.5%) even though Dodgers' catchers (primarily Will Smith) are among the worst pitch-framers in the league. He's excellent at missing bats. He's excellent at getting strikes when hitters don't swing. He's excellent at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact. Basically, if it's something a pitcher can control, Yamamoto is excellent at it.
You can nitpick Yamamoto's 8.5% walk rate, which is almost exactly the 8.4% league average, if you want. League average isn't bad though. It's just ... average. Yamamoto does not pitch deep into games (38th in innings per start among the 57 qualified pitchers) and he always starts on extra rest, but that's a Dodgers thing, not a Yamamoto thing. They handle all their starters that way.
On a rate basis, Yamamoto has been a top-10 starter in baseball this season, and he's been one of the five or six best starters in the National League. He almost certainly won't win the Cy Young -- that is Skenes' to lose with Wheeler hurt -- but Yamamoto was a deserving All-Star and should at least get some down-ballot Cy Young votes. Maybe even some down-ballot MVP votes.
Dodgers fatigue is a real thing. Every non-Dodgers fan is sick of hearing about that team, plus Yamamoto won't ever be the most famous Japanese-born player on his own team. Make no mistake though, he is an ace-caliber starter. Yamamoto was given the richest pitcher contract ever, he delivered a World Series title in Year 1, and he's been at the top of his game in Year 2.
The Yankees are suddenly running
For years now, the Yankees have been criticized for being too reliant on home runs. Entering Tuesday's action, they had scored 49.1% of their runs on homers this season, second most in baseball (Mariners lead at 49.3%) and well above the 41.0% league average. The Yankees also led baseball with 218 homers, 19 more than any other team, hence their AL-best 5.16 runs per game.
It is true the Yankees lean on home runs to generate offense. Lately though, they've picked up the pace on the bases and are running much more often. The Yankees went 35 for 39 stealing bases in their previous 25 games going into Tuesday. It was the first time they stole even 30 bases in a 25-game span since 2011. Here are their stolen base attempts by month:
- April: 32 (15th in MLB)
- May: 19 (24th in MLB)
- June: 28 (9th in MLB)
- July: 20 (19th in MLB)
- August: 31 (2nd in MLB)
After ranking mostly middle of the pack from April through July, only the Rays (35) have attempted more stolen bases than the Yankees in August. They are stealing efficiently too. That 35 for 39 in the last 25 games works out to a 90% success rate, well above the 78% league average. The Bronx Bombers have been the Bronx Burners lately. They're stealing often and efficiently.
No one will confuse the Yankees for a track team, but they do have some speed. Jasson Domínguez (21 for 25) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (22 for 26) are above 20 steals. Anthony Volpe has 15. Cody Bellinger has 11. José Caballero leads baseball with 40 stolen bases, including six in limited action with the Yankees since coming over at the deadline. Even big Aaron Judge has swiped eight bags.
Their speed has played in other ways too. FanGraphs has the Yankees 16th in total baserunning value. That includes going first-to-third on a single, advancing on a wild pitch, etc. Not just stolen bases. Middle of the pack is nothing special, but the Yankees were dead last in baseball (by a good margin) last year. Going from dead last to middle of the pack qualifies as a big improvement.
Stolen bases do not guarantee runs the way home runs do, but they are a way to manufacture offense, and they are something the Yankees lacked earlier this season and over the last few years. This month, though, they've really picked it up on the bases. There has been a concerted effort to use their speed to generate offense, and take those extra 90 feet when it's available.
Pasquantino finds his power stroke
Thanks to a recent five-game winning streak and the American League's third-best record since July 1, the Royals have surged back into the wild card race, and their offense deserves the credit. Kansas City ranks a modest 11th in runs scored since July 1 but also sixth -- sixth! -- in home runs. That is a stark contrast to the team that ranked 30th in runs and homers from April through June.
Sneaky MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. is of course at the forefront of Kansas City's offensive surge, as is first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Going into Tuesday's game, Pasquantino had hit nine home runs in his previous 15 games, including going deep in five straight games at one point. That earned him AL Player of the Week honors last week.
Pasquantino, 27, went into Tuesday with 28 home runs in 553 plate appearances. He hit 19 homers in 554 plate appearances last year and 19 homers in 558 plate appearances around injuries from 2022-23. There has always been some juice in his bat -- that is a bit of a prerequisite for a first baseman -- though Pasquantino has leveled up his power output this season.
Most impressively, Pasquantino's power is showing up against different pitch types and in different locations of the strike zone. Here are the pitches those nine homers came on in his last 15 games going into Tuesday:
Nine home runs on six different pitch types. Pasquantino turned on fastballs in, golfed breaking balls down, reached out to hook a slider away, and punished a hanging changeup too. Every hitter has a nitro zone, the part of the zone where their swing and their power plays best. Pasquantino is not simply running into pitches in his nitro zone though. He's covering just about everything now.
The Royals have only had two primary first basemen hit 30 homers in a season: John Mayberry Sr. (34 in 1975) and Steve Balboni (36 in 1985). Pasquantino will join them in short order, and it is no coincidence that Kansas City's climb up the standings started once they began hitting the ball out of the park more often. Their offense simply wasn't good enough the first three months of the season. With Witt, Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia, the offense is much more competitive now.
