MLB odds, picks: Best bets for Mariners vs. Blue Jays and Dodgers vs. Brewers with big nights for two stars

After a rough patch, we're pretty hot here on best bets in the last several days. In the past two, specifically, we went 4-1. The lone loss was needing 3+ hits plus runs plus RBI from Shohei Ohtani. He led off the game with a triple and then scored and then did nothing the rest of the game. That's a tough loss or, as the parlance goes, a bad beat. Still, four of five in the past two day is good vibes and we're gonna keep those going. 

Friday night brings us ALCS Game 5 with the Mariners and Blue Jays tied 2-2, and then NLCS Game 4 as the Dodgers go for a sweep of the Brewers. Lines courtesy of FanDuel. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ total bases (-105)

Time to ride the wave. Vlad is 15 for 33 with two doubles and five home runs in eight playoff games so far this postseason. That's 32 total bases or an average of exactly four per game. We could get home with two singles here, but a double or home run does it in one plate appearance. 

One of the games where Guerrero did nothing was Game 1 of the ALCS with Bryce Miller on the mound. He was 0 for 4, but look deeper. He hit the ball hard. In fact, he scorched it. His lineout in the first was over 107 miles per hour and his groundout on his second at-bat was 109. He hit two of the five hardest balls in the game. I love him getting another look at Miller with a quick turnaround, especially given how locked in Vlad Jr. feels right now. 

Dodgers -1.5 (+104) and Shohei Ohtani o6.5 K (-104)

The Brewers have shown a few instances of fight, but overall they're just flailing. The Dodgers are on another level. After taking back-to-back walk-off losses in Baltimore in early September, the Dodgers won 15 of 20 to close the season and now have gone 8-1 in the playoffs. The starting pitching is completely overwhelming the Brewers Punch-and-Judy offense.

I'm expecting more of the same here. Shohei Ohtani has 71 strikeouts against 10 walks in 53 innings between the regular season and playoffs this year. He's done a slow build to get to this point after recovering from elbow surgery, but he's now a frontline starter. The Brewers have never faced him with the overwhelming majority of the offense having never seen him in MLB action. The unfamiliarity will pay off. He'll deal. I've got him going six innings, maybe even seven, with at least a strikeout per inning. The number here is in a good enough place to play it. 

As for the run line, I'm expecting the Brewers to score very few runs, so we only need the Dodgers' offense to have a rally or two. This play hit in Game 3 despite Jacob Misiorowski throwing extremely well for the Brewers and he's out for Game 4. They won't have quite the same level of run prevention in this one.