Free MLB home run picks, odds for Sept. 30: Manny Machado is the best bet for Tuesday HR player props

Padres third baseman Manny Machado homered on the final day of the regular season to finish with 27 home runs in 2025, and now he'll head into the 2025 MLB Playoffs with plenty of confidence. The Padres will visit the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday for Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series, and first pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET. Machado will square off with Chicago lefty Matthew Boyd, who posted a 3.21 ERA on the season but had a 4.63 ERA in the second half of the season and a 5.31 ERA in September.

Despite Boyd's struggles, you can still find Machado listed for as high as +485 in the latest MLB home runs odds, and that price is why he's our top MLB HR pick. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 36.44 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after calling Vinnie Pasquantino (+455) and Francisco Lindor (+420) to homer on Thursday and Colson Montgomery (+500) on Friday and (+392) Saturday, and then Hunter Goodman (+492) as well on Saturday. It also nailed two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

MLB Best Home Run Bets and Prop Picks 9/30

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Manny Machado, Padres (+485, DraftKings)

Machado is a solid 5-13 in his career against Matt Boyd, and while he doesn't have a home run against Boyd, Machado does have two doubles against him. Boyd has allowed 19 Home Runs this season, and 17 of those were hit by right-handed hitters. Despite having a 2.51 home ERA compared to a 3.90 road ERA, Boyd actually has a higher HR/9 allowed at home this season than on the road. Machado has 13 HRs in 47 games this season when the opposing starter is left-handed compared to 14 HRs in 112 starts when the opposing starter is a righty. We set Machado's line at +345 to homer today, and you can bet this prop at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets instantly + over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket on a $5 bet:

Where to bet MLB props on Tuesday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Tuesday: 

More MLB picks for Tuesday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 84-62-1 roll (+1629) on MLB picks.