Free MLB home run picks, odds for September 8: Juan Soto among best bets for Monday HR player props

After paying $765 million for his services over 15 years, there were some early-season concerns about Mets outfielder Juan Soto after he only hit three home runs and posted a .752 OPS through March and April. However, Soto silenced the critics with a massive June, and after a bit of a lull in July, he's looked like arguably the best hitter in baseball over the last month and change. Since the start of August, he has a 1.102 OPS with 13 home runs, yet you can still find him listed for as high as +340 in the MLB home run odds.

He's one of our top MLB HR picks on Monday with the Mets taking on the Phillies in a crucial NL East matchup that begins at 6:45 p.m. ET. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $300 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 60.25 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Daulton Varsho (+340) and Manny Machado (+350) to homer on Wednesday, Kyle Manzardo (+420) on Thursday and Colson Montgomery (+575) on Friday. It has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Monday, September 8:

• Juan Soto, Mets (+340)
• Manny Machado, Padres (+340) 
  
• Michael Busch, Cubs (+430)
• Parlay these picks for +9426 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/8

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Juan Soto, Mets (+340, BetMGM)

Soto has seen Aaron Nola plenty over their careers and has handled him well, posting a .983 OPS and 3 HRs. He's also walked 15 times against Nola, so betting Soto to walk could be another strong angle. Soto has 6 multi-hit games and 6 HRs over his last 9 games, and Nola is in the midst of the worst season of his career. We set Soto's line at +280 to homer, and you can get this price as well as up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first wager loses when using the latest BetMGM bonus code:

Manny Machado, Padres (+340, DraftKings)

Machado continues to offer value against left-handed pitching. He has a .954 OPS in games where the opposing starter is a lefty. He's just 2-8 in his career against Nick Lodolo, but one of those hits was a HR. While Lodolo's overall numbers are better against right-handed hitters, 15 of the 17 HRs he's allowed this season have come from righties. We set Machado's line at +285 to homer. Use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 in bonus bets instantly as well as over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket here:

Michael Busch, Cubs (+430, FanDuel)

Busch has been cold lately with 0 hits in his last 5 games, but we're taking a "he's due" approach. He has a .986 OPS in Cubs wins compared to just .549 in losses, and our model has the Cubs winning this game in 60% of simulations. Busch has hit 18 of his 26 HRs on the road and 24 of 26 against RHPs. We set his line at +420 to homer. Bet this prop with the latest FanDuel promo code and get $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5+ wins:

Where to bet MLB props on Monday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Monday: 

More MLB picks for Monday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on a 67-47 roll (+1407.5) on MLB picks.