Dodgers vs. Padres in NL West showdown: Four things to know, prediction for weekend series at Dodger Stadium

One of the best rivalries in baseball resumes this weekend in Southern California when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres for three games at Dodger Stadium. The NL West remains very much up for grabs with six weeks and one weekend to play in the 2025 regular season. The Padres jumped the Dodgers in the standings earlier this week.

"We're where we're at. We put ourselves in this spot," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday when asked whether he's surprised his team is in second place (via MLB.com). "But no, I wouldn't have expected us to be in second place right now."

Here are the details for this weekend's series in Chavez Ravine. Select games can be streamed regionally on fubo (try for free).

The Padres were dealt a blow Thursday when righty Michael King was placed on the injured list with knee inflammation. He had just returned from a shoulder issue that sidelined him for close to three months. King made one two-inning start last Saturday and then went right back on the injured list. Righty Randy Vásquez was called up to fill the roster spot.

As of Thursday, Kershaw was the only starting pitcher to have been officially announced for the series. Vásquez was lined up to pitch in King's spot Friday, if the Padres want to go that way. If the two teams keep their rotations on turn, Saturday lines up to be Dylan Cease vs. Blake Snell, and Sunday lines up to be Yu Darvish vs. Tyler Glasnow. For now, this is all subject to change.

The Padres (-126) are favored in Friday's series opener at the Dodgers (+105), according to FanDuel. The over-under is set at 9.5.

Here now are four things to know about this weekend's Dodger vs. Padres series, plus a prediction, because why not?

1. The roles have been reversed

As recently as July 3, the Dodgers had what seemed like a comfortable nine-game lead in the NL West. They go into this weekend's showdown as a second-place team. Los Angeles has gone 12-21 since July 3, while the Padres have gone 23-12 to storm into first place. That nine-game lead evaporated in six weeks.

Here's the NL West standings before and after:

The Dodgers are not alone in blowing a big division lead this year. The New York Yankees had a seven-game lead vanish. The Chicago Cubs went from 6 ½ games up to eight games back in two months. The Houston Astros had a seven-game lead disappear in only five weeks (though they have since gone back up 1 ½ games). Blown division leads is the theme of 2025, I suppose.

I doubt that makes the Dodgers feel better about things, though. Instead of cruising to their 12th division title in 13 years, they have to sweat things out these last few weeks. The Dodgers left the door open for the Padres and San Diego has barged right in.

2. The Dodgers lead the season series

Division rivals play 13 games across four series each year and this is the third series between the Dodgers and Padres in 2025. Los Angeles leads the season series 5-2 with six games remaining. Here are the head-to-head results:

Petco Park

• June 9: Dodgers 8, Padres 7 in 10 innings (box score)
• June 10: Padres 11, Dodgers 1 (box score)
• June 11: Dodgers 5, Padres 2 (box score)

Dodger Stadium

• June 16: Dodgers 6, Padres 3 (box score)
• June 17: Dodgers 8, Padres 6 (box score)
• June 18: Dodgers 4, Padres 3 (box score)
• June 19: Padres 5, Dodgers 3 (box score)

Two more head-to-head wins will clinch the season series and thus the tiebreaker for the Dodgers. That's a big deal. This figures to be a tight race the rest of the year, and if the Dodgers and Padres finish with identical records, the winner of the season series will get the NL West title. Two wins in their six remaining head-to-head games clinch the tiebreaker for Los Angeles.

The tiebreaker is not some long shot either. The 2022 NL East, 2023 AL West, and both the second and third NL wild card spots in 2024 were decided via tiebreaker. You'd rather have the tiebreaker and not need it than need it and not have it.

3. They'll see each other again soon

We won't have to wait long to see these two teams go at it again after this weekend. They'll wrap up their season series with three games at Petco Park next weekend, Aug. 22-24. It's too bad the Dodgers and Padres won't play in September (blame the new, more balanced schedule), but at least we get them on back-to-back weekends in August. 

4. Who's hot, who's not

Baseball is a game of hot and cold streaks. Consistency is a myth. A .300 hitter doesn't get three hits every 10 at-bats, or even hit .300 every single month. He hits .300 one month, .250 the next, .350 the month after that, etc. Naturally, some Dodgers and Padres players go into this weekend swinging the bat better than others.

Here are three Padres' hitters who have been at their best over the last 15 days:

Prior to the trade deadline, San Diego's left fielders were hitting an anemic .229/.283/.330 with seven home runs in 109 games. Going from that to what Laureano has given them since coming over from the Baltimore Orioles has been a massive upgrade. One of the biggest upgrades any team made at the deadline, really. Laureano has been an instant difference-maker.

Fellow trade deadline addition Freddy Fermin has had quite the introduction to San Diego as well. He's hitting .355/.394/.484 since coming over from the Royals. Padres' catchers were hitting .211/.267/.329 with shaky defense before the trade deadline. Fermin has been a big upgrade on both sides of the ball. Two weeks after the fact, we can say the Padres were a big deadline winner.

On the other side of the coin, both Luis Arraez (.245/.281/.302) and Manny Machado (.239/.327/.304) have been going through it the last 15 days. Needless to say, the Padres will need both to pick things up to hold off the Dodgers and stay atop the NL West. Here now are three Dodgers' hitters who have swung a hot bat the last 15 days:

The Dodgers' top hitters have been their best over the last 15 days. The bad news is Muncy was a late scratch from Wednesday's game after feeling soreness in his right side during batting practice. Thursday was an off-day, so we're still waiting for an update. Losing Muncy again (he recently missed a month with a knee injury) would be a big blow.

Not too many Dodgers are swinging the bat well, other than those three above. Mookie Betts has been better of late (.280/.321/.380 last 15 days), though he hasn't hit for much power. Andy Pages has been solid enough (.250/.313/.318 last 15 days) but not overly impactful. The underrated Will Smith has cooled down a bit too (.179/.343/.321 last 15 days).

Prediction

Let's close with a prediction. I'll say the Padres win two of three this weekend, which would stretch their NL West lead to two games. Their vibes are immaculate right now and the Dodgers have major bullpen questions, the kind the Padres do not have given their deep and overpowering relief crew. I think the Padres win on Friday, lose on Saturday, then snag the rubber game on Sunday. It has been foretold.