We could sift through a list of the most disappointing teams in baseball this season, and there are certainly strong arguments elsewhere (Mets, Blue Jays, etc.), but the Seattle Mariners are toward the top of that list.
And yet, there's still an opening for them to end up with at least the three seed on the American League playoff bracket and maybe even get a bye with the two seed. For real.
The Mariners sit just 2 ½ games back on the woeful AL West behind the uninspiring Astros, with the equally uninspiring Rangers only a half game behind the 'Stros.
Obviously, the Mariners have overall been uninspiring on the season, but they are finishing up a gauntlet of a schedule for the month of August in which they've faced the Rays, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Cubs and Phillies, and they haven't fared terribly. They've now won eight of their last 12 and have taken a series in Houston in addition to winning series over the Cubs and Phillies at home.
Even better news for the Mariners: Big Dumper might be back.
Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has easily had the most disappointing season among individual players this season. Through Aug. 15, he was hitting .156/.266/.291 with just 12 home runs in 90 games. Remember, he hit 60 bombs last season and barely missed out on MVP, losing by just a few votes to Aaron Judge.
In his last nine games, however, Raleigh is hitting .348 with a .531 on-base percentage and six home runs, including three on Monday night against the Phillies. If we pare that down to five games, he's even hotter: a five-game hitting streak with a .438 average, more walks than strikeouts, five home runs and eight RBI. Obviously, a three-HR game skews things a bit in there, but that still counts, and part of his game last year was home runs coming in bunches.
How about this one? The Mariners haven't lost a game in which Raleigh homered since April 27. Since then, they are 9-0 when he hits a home run.
Obviously, it's going to take more than just Raleigh waking up for the Mariners to make a run, but they have the pieces, and he's such a key piece that his possible resurgence is a game-changer in and of itself.
Now, about that remaining schedule. The Mariners play the subpar-but-sometimes-competent Blue Jays in Toronto this weekend before getting three games in Fenway Park against the likely playoff-bound Red Sox. That's a somewhat tough road trip, but not entirely unworkable.
Then things really open up with just the right number of head-to-head chances against the teams above them.
- Four games at home vs. Athletics
- Three games at home vs. Rangers
- Three games in Sacramento against A's
- Three games in Anaheim against Angels
- Three games in Coors Field against Rockies
- Two games at home vs. Astros
- Four games at home vs. Angels
Add it all up and, even with the trip to Boston, the remaining winning percentage of Mariners' opponents is .440. That's the easiest remaining schedule in baseball.
The Astros and Rangers are both in the top half with a remaining opponents' winning percentage of above .500. And, again, the Mariners have shots at both the Rangers and Astros at home to take care of any business they need to.
Sure enough, the odds reflect the tight three-team race and the Mariners' decent shot. Via Caesars, here are the odds to win the NL West:
- Astros +145
- Mariners +160
- Rangers +240
I'm jumping on the Mariners at that price.
Now, obviously, the Mariners still have plenty of work to do, and just glancing at a schedule doesn't necessarily mean they'll necessarily handle their business against the bottom-feeding A's, Angels and Rockies. There's a reason they've been as bad as nine games under .500 this season and haven't been over .500 since June 9. They are tied for 19th in winning percentage in baseball right now, and if they are on someone else's schedule, it helps that team's remaining strength of schedule. Plus, they are only 34-34 against sub-.500 teams.
I'm just pointing out that things are shaping up nicely for the Mariners to salvage this disappointing season. The American League playoff bracket looks like it could be wide open. Could they make a run to the World Series after coming so close last year? It's possible.
First things first, though, Raleigh needs to stay hot and the Mariners need to beat up on bad teams in September.
