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It may have only been Aug. 27, but it really felt like the Toronto Blue Jays desperately needed that comeback win on Wednesday night. The Yankees and Red Sox had already won and the Jays were trailing the lowly Twins, 8-6, heading to the bottom of the eighth inning. Ty France hit a solo homer and later Addison Barger's two-RBI double put the Jays up for good. 

With the victory, the Blue Jays maintained a four-game division lead over the Red Sox with the Yankees 4 ½ games back. It would feel a lot more dramatic at three and 3 ½, respectively, but this AL East race still feels far from over. 

The Blue Jays aren't playing poorly or anything, but they are 5-5 in their last 10 games, 15-14 since July 26 and 14-10 in August. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are surging again and have won six of seven. The Yankees have won nine of 12 with their only three losses coming against the Red Sox -- a major Achilles heel for them this season. 

We have just about one month left in the season and it looks like there might be a three-team race here. Let's take a quick look. 

Here are the odds to win the AL East, via FanDuel:

  • Blue Jays -250
  • Yankees +360
  • Red Sox +550

Now a quick glance at each team. 

Blue Jays

Record: 78-56
SportsLine odds to win AL East: 73.4%

It's been well established by now that the Blue Jays have a great offense, top to bottom, and that's been the case since late May. There's little reason to believe that goes away. I love how good Shane Bieber looked in his return from surgery and it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the rotation -- several former aces past their prime -- performs down the stretch. The bullpen, though, has been awful in the second half. 

In terms of the schedule, the Blue Jays enter Thursday with the fifth-most difficult remaining schedule by remaining opponents' winning percentage. The only sub-.500 teams left are the Rays (seven games and hardly an easy opponent) and Orioles (three games).

Red Sox

Record: 74-60
SportsLine odds to win AL East: 12.4%

Since the Red Sox promoted Roman Anthony and got Alex Bregman back from injury, they've had a pretty solid offense, though it's still inconsistent. They are 12th in runs in the majors in August. Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito form a stout top three in the rotation. The bullpen has been one of the best in baseball in the second half. Basically, there's every reason to believe the Red Sox will keep playing well. 

They have a pretty even schedule the rest of the way in terms of good and bad teams left to play, though the six games against the A's are interesting because they might be better than their record right now. Then again, the Guardians are probably worse than their .500 record says so maybe it evens out. It's a middle-of-the-road schedule with some opportunities in there (we'll get to that). 

Yankees

Record: 73-60
SportsLine odds to win AL East: 14.2%

The offense is so powerful right now with Giancarlo Stanton in his "crusher of worlds" groove, having hit 13 homers in the second half. Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Volpe and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all also have more home runs since the All-Star break than Aaron Judge's six. In all, the Yankees have an MLB-leading 74 second-half home runs with the Blue Jays second in the majors at 61. The rotation is actually in good shape thanks to Cam Schlitter stepping up while we have confidence in the pedigree of Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Luis Gil. The bullpen remains, however, a major concern even after the trade deadline reinforcements. 

The Yankee have the easiest schedule here of these three. In fact, it's one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball (.477 opponent winning percentage, 25th hardest in MLB). Starting Thursday, the Yankees have seven games left against the White Sox. They also have seven against the Orioles and three against what's left of the Twins.

After they finish their last series against the Red Sox on Sept. 14, the Yankees don't play another team with a winning record the rest of the way.  

Remaining head-to-head series

  • The Blue Jays visit the Yankees for three games Sept. 5-7.
  • The Yankees face the Red Sox at Fenway Park for three games, Sept. 12-14.
  • The Blue Jays host the Red Sox for three games in the final week of the season, Sept. 23-25.

I mentioned the Red Sox having an opportunity above. Zero in on that final week. They'll get a shot at the Blue Jays before closing at home against a Tigers team that will surely be playing for nothing and setting up for either the ALDS or Wild Card Series. 

Possible tiebreakers

Unfortunately, there aren't tiebreaker games anymore. Here are where the head-to-head series stand right now: 

  • Blue Jays over Red Sox, seven games to three
  • Blue Jays over Yankees, seven games to three
  • Red Sox over Yankees, eight games to two

Though the Yankees have the easy schedule, they are in bad shape with the tiebreakers. 

The verdict

As the odds state, the overwhelmingly most likely scenario here is the Blue Jays win the division, so they remain the pick. 

I do think it gets closer than it is now, though. SportsLine projections agree, as we have the Blue Jays finishing with 93 wins, the Yankees with 90 and Red Sox with 89. That said, given the way the two trailing teams are playing right now in addition to how the schedules shake out, it's going to be a lot of fun.