Fantasy Football RB draft strategy: Is Jahmyr Gibbs the top back over Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley?

Running backs dominate the first two rounds of Fantasy drafts, and according to our projection model, if you isolate Weeks 1 to 17, the No. 1 one pick isn't Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley. The 49ers are back on top of the NFC West (based on the odds) because Christian McCaffrey looks physically great again. The Saints are expected to be the worst team in the league, but that isn't a bad thing for Alvin Kamara's Fantasy value. Derrick Henry is over 30, Ashton Jeanty is the hot-shot rookie, but we'd still take Henry.

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Would you rather draft Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs with the first pick?

Last season, Jahmyr Gibbs averaged +0.8 more yards per carry and +2.8 more yards per reception than Robinson and had five more TDs on 63 fewer touches. We project Robinson to close the gap slightly with Michael Penix Jr. in Year 2 improving the overall offense, but we still have Gibbs averaging +0.2 more Fantasy points per game (last season it was +1.8). Last season, Gibbs did benefit statistically from David Montgomery's late-season injury. But even if Montgomery does not sustain a serious injury, he is a bruising RB who has 1300+ career carries and saw a significant decline in yards per carry (4.6 in '23 down to 4.2 in '24). 

Do not be surprised if Gibbs' percentage of team carries increases from 46% in his career so far closer to Robinson's 58% and Gibbs' percentage of team receptions from below 14% to Robinson's 17%. While Robinson is the clear primary RB, the Falcons still have the very solid Tyler Allgeier who had some of his heavier workload games late last season (9, 11, 12, 9, 8 carries in five of the Falcons final six games). Unlike Montgomery, Allgeier is still a young player. In terms of usage rate, we would say Gibbs has the better shot at seeing a meaningful increase from last season.

Jahmyr Gibbs best futures bet: Over 1050.5 rushing yards -115 (bet365)
We are projecting Gibbs for 11 rushing touchdowns, so there is minimal value versus his 10.5 line. But with 1,276 rushing yards projected, we have solid value and the ability to hit the over potentially even if he were to miss a couple games. Montgomery averaged roughly two fewer carries per game in 2024 vs the 2023 season, and Gibbs was the beneficiary. This trend is likely to continue, especially in light of the fact that Gibbs' yards per carry increased significantly from 5.2 to 5.6 despite the increased number of touches. The fact that Gibbs averaged +1.4 more yards per carry last season than Montgomery makes us think we could see a 60-40 split in RB carries, and instead of a 13.3 rush per game projection with 1,276 rushing yards, we could end up with a 15.5 rush per game and 1,400+ yards and an easy Over 1050.5. You can bet on Gibbs to exceed 1,050.5 rushing yards at bet365, where new users get $150 in bonus bets:

Bijan Robinson best futures bet: Under 10.5 rushing touchdowns -125 (DraftKings)
Before he went four straight games without a passing TD, Kirk Cousins was actually putting up decent numbers with 17 passing TDs in his first nine starts. In these games with quality QB play, Robinson only had four rushing touchdowns. When Cousins crashed with five bad games, it not only led the team to start the rookie Penix, but also rely on Bijan to be 100% of the offense. Because we think Penix is good and will pass for plenty of TDs, we do not see a situation where Robinson will rack up eight rushing TDs in six games like he did to end last season. We are projecting 11 rushing TDs, so we technically lean Over, but our projection assumes 17 games played, and that's never a safe assumption in the NFL. We would not take the Under on Robinson's total TDs because his receiving TDs will likely go up with Penix. Bet on Robinson to go Under 10.5 rushing touchdowns at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

Would you rather have 31-year-old Derrick Henry or 21-year-old Ashton Jeanty?

Derrick Henry is not a medical marvel because of his ability to defy aging. He's a medical marvel because he'd probably be 6'4" and 250 pounds even if he were a lawyer. His natural build combined with hyper focus on the right type of training to prevent injuries helps him avoid injuries that happen to people who put on 40 pounds of muscle to become great RBs. Their ligaments, tendons and bones aren't built and don't strengthen at the same rate as their muscles do. Henry's vision is not declining, he's not getting smaller and his maximum speed is tied to his long stride more than his leg rotation speed. As long as Lamar Jackson is at QB, Henry will continue to get his 1.5 yards before contact and get his 5.5+ yards per carry. 

Jeanty only had 104 yards on 30 carries versus Penn State because PSU is a great defense (like he'll face in the NFL) and Jeanty won't be able to break tackles when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage at even half the rate he did for most of last season at Boise. The Raiders also won't be playing from ahead like Baltimore will as often, so Henry will have more eight- to 10-carry drives in the fourth quarter. Also, in his first preseason game, Jeanty had -1 yards on three carries, for what it's worth.

Derrick Henry best futures bet: Over 1300.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
You will want to act now on this line as it's 75 yards higher on DraftKings and bet365. Last year, we cashed this early with a line of just 950.5 yards. Derrick Henry not only dishes out more force and punishment than he absorbs on every hit due to physics (he's moving faster than anyone bigger and he's much bigger than anyone faster), but he also has not had as many carries as you might think. At Alabama he had 395 carries his Heisman season but barely 200 as a freshman and sophomore. He was in an RB committee for his first two NFL seasons and didn't have 300+ until Year 4. Henry has only had seven full heavy workload seasons over the past 13 years. He is projected for 1,670 yards in 17 games so we have around three games of "wiggle room" to hit the Over.

Ashton Jeanty best futures bet: Over 7.5 rushing touchdowns -118 (FanDuel)
Geno Smith was very accurate and passed for a ton of yards but for his last two seasons he has not been a good Red Zone QB which is why he only had 21 and 20 TDs his past two seasons. We are projecting Jeanty for 10 rushing TDs, which is what the entire Raiders team ran for combined last season. The passing game upgrade between the 20s should result in many more red zone opportunities than last season. Backup running back Raheem Mostert is getting up there in age, and Jeanty should be in position to get upwards of 80% of team rushing TDs. Even if the Raiders have 10 total rushing TDs for a second straight season, Jeanty could have eight of them.

You can take the Over on either of these running back props at FanDuel, where new users get $150 in bonus bets if their first bet wins:

Would you believe we'd rather have Aaron Jones over Jonathan Taylor?

We have Jonathan Taylor projected for way more rushing yards and touchdowns, so this is definitely a PPR-based selection. We wouldn't recommend drafting Aaron Jones at the RB9 range that Taylor is being drafted at, either. We do think that Jones is a far better value in PPR than Taylor because Jones is projected for 27 more receptions and 200 more receiving yards. Anthony Richardson is probably the least accurate QB, especially on short "easy layup" passes, the league has seen in years. Daniel Jones (QB2) is still Daniel Jones. 

Our point is not that these QBs can't pass to RBs, they just can't operate efficiently enough to have a lot of extended drives the way Minnesota's offense can. Even if Jones is in a committee with Jordan Mason, his 50% of RB carries and 80% of RB screen passes makes him our pick. Jones is older, but Taylor has missed 16 games his past three seasons versus just six missed for Jones. It's more likely that Taylor misses time due to injury given he is a workhorse RB with 1,200+ carries.

Aaron Jones best futures bet: Over 750.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
Jones has gone Over this number in five of his past six seasons, and the Under was when he had 656 yards in just 11 games. One reason why the Vikings did not have interest in Aaron Rodgers and were very comfortable letting Sam Darnold go was they knew that the continuity at RB/WR/TE was more than enough to play at a high level for J.J. McCarthy. The addition of Mason improves the RB room, but we don't see it as a threat for Jones to see his rushing yards drop by 400. Mason thrived in the Shanahan running game but then got hurt after playing a workhorse role. These two will likely be in a near 50-50 split in terms of carries. Even if Jones' rushing percentage drops from over 55% to 45%, he should still hit 200 carries (255 last season) or 180 if he misses two games, and at the same 4.5 yards per carry he hit last season (career 4.9), we still go Over.

Jonathan Taylor best futures bet: Under 9.5 rushing touchdowns -102 (FanDuel)
When Taylor was young (first two seasons) or when he ran 300+ times, he has gone Over, but given he is a normal sized RB with more than 1,200 carries, the chances of him staying healthy (15 games) and hitting double digits is only around 35%. The model projects him for eight TDs even if he plays all 17 games. Given Richardson is already dealing with another injury, many might expect Jones to play QB at least half the season. Even Saquon Barkley was only 2-4 over this number as a Giant playing with Jones. Other than Taylor, only Robinson and Chuba Hubbard managed to have 10+ rushing TDs playing without a quality QB, and because of age and wear and tear, it's hard to see Taylor repeating the feat when it is so rare, all things considered.

Bet on either of these running backs at FanDuel, where new users get $150 in bonus bets if their first bet wins:

Would you rather have Christian McCaffrey in Year 9 or Alvin Kamara in Year 9?

Both players have been No. 1 Fantasy draft picks, especially in PPR leagues, due to their heavy usage as receivers, and both players are heading into Year 9. Kamara is coming off a top-10 Fantasy season despite missing three games and having lousy QB play, while McCaffrey is coming off an lost season due to injury. Despite how 2024 went from an individual statistical perspective, ADP (RB5) and FFT (RB5) have much more faith in McCaffrey than they do in Kamara (RB16 in ADP and RB 18 FFT). Our model disagrees, projecting Kamara as RB7 and McCaffrey as RB10. 

Despite missing 2-4 games pretty much every season, Kamara has always produced Fantasy starter numbers. And despite his age, 2024 was his best statistical season since 2020. His 4.2 yards per carry, 950 rushing yards, 543 receiving yards and eight TDs are all highs since 2020. The Saints have gone all-in the last few seasons and don't have the money at this point to add much depth behind Kamara. He will be the same RB he's always been. McCaffrey has had plenty of seasons sunk by injury like last season. He is a far greater injury risk than Kamara. The Niners have potentially dynamic RBs on the bench like second-year player Isaac Guerendo and rookie Jordan James. If McCaffrey is dealing with injuries, the Niners would likely rest him or use him less if they are still in playoff position because they have depth at the position and need McCaffrey for postseason success. Kamara will also be heavily used as a safe receiving option for whatever inexperienced limited QB is playing for the Saints.

Alvin Kamara best futures bet: Over 750.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings and bet365)
Backup RB Kendre Miller has done very little in his two seasons (269 rushing yards in 14 games on 3.8 yards per carry). Third-stringer Devin Neal is a sixth-rounder who is not a burner (4.58 40-yard dash time) but is not built like a power RB (5'11", 213 pounds). The QB room is probably the worst in the league. New head coach Kellen Moore has had good running offenses, and while their yards per carry may dip, the Saints (21st in rushing attempts) may be forced to be top 15 this season. Expect Kamara to continue accounting for over 50% of team rushing yards, which is why we have him projected for a 1,000+ yards in 17 games. It can really help an individual's Over to play on a very untalented team. Bet on Kamara at bet365 and get $150 in bonus bets:  

Christian McCaffrey Under 7.5 rushing touchdowns -122 (FanDuel)
We are projecting McCaffrey for six rushing touchdowns in a full 17-game season. McCaffrey's rushing TD production has been hit (eight or more three times, twice with 14 or more) or miss (six times with seven or less, three with two or less). The Under is 6-3, and we will bet against an aging RB reversing this trend as he approaches 30 years old. McCaffrey is NOT Derrick Henry. He deserves all the credit in the world for building up his body to be a Hall of Fame-caliber running back, but adding 20 to 30+ pounds of muscle takes its toll on ligaments, tendons and other connective tissues that can't grow the same way your muscles can. This results in a lot of injuries when making sharp cuts.

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