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Dave Richard's sleepers 1.0: Patrick Mahomes could be the steal of your draft

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My first turn at finding late-round sleepers comes with a revelation: There aren't many enticing running backs or wide receivers out there in the double-digit rounds.

That's a problem. When you get into Round 10-plus, you want to have a short list of rushers and wideouts to turn to. You'll find a slew of backup running backs and unproven or over-the-hill receivers, but none offer a ton of the glistening potential we desperately want.

But there are tight ends and quarterbacks. That's normal -- we've seen both of those positions get pushed down draft boards once the elite-tier guys get taken. It does feel like this season, though, we're getting some exciting values at those positions specifically.

It might be enough for you to pass on them earlier in drafts unless you get yourself a steal. Such a move would enable you to rack up RBs and WRs, then grab good values at the other positions.

Everyone on my sleeper list is going 120th or later on at least one of FantasyPros or CBS Sports Offseason Average Draft Position. Everyone on my sleeper list I have ranked higher than those spots.

Isaiah Likely
NYG • TE • #9
TAR36
REC27
REC YDs307
REC TD1
FL1
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CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 92.1
FantasyPros ADP: 122.0
He's a sleeper because ... He might be the healthiest, most explosive pass-catcher for the Giants this season. Admittedly, that sounds weird and depressing given what we've previously seen from stud Malik Nabers, but with Nabers slow to recover from his ACL and meniscus injury, the door is open for Likely to have a meaningful role. New Giants playcaller Matt Nagy has a steady track record of utilizing tight ends in his offenses. Second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart threw to his tight ends last year at a 22.8% rate, which is above average. And while Likely has seen six-plus targets in only nine career games, he's had at least 12.5 full-PPR points in eight of them. Six targets per game should be a lay-up for him in New York. We've waited for-ev-er for Likely to get an opportunity like this; the cost to take advantage isn't prohibitive whatsoever.
I'd draft him: Round 8

CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 118.9
FantasyPros ADP: 130.0
He's a sleeper because ... He has a real chance to be Cleveland's top target-getter as a rookie. Concepcion's versatility makes him capable of winning on all three levels (and on handoffs), but it's his quickness and elusiveness that can turn him loose as a YAC weapon for the Browns. And boy, they could use that in their offense given the lack of unique talents after second-year tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Drops will probably be a small issue -- that's something he's been working on all offseason -- but as long as he doesn't have them every week, his playing time shouldn't be affected. This figures to be a Browns offense that won't have many favorable run-heavy game scripts this season, plus they won't face a lot of shutdown secondaries over the balance of the season. I think there's a pathway for Concepcion to lead all rookie receivers in targets and catches.
I'd draft him: Round 9, around 100th overall

Patrick Mahomes
KC • QB • #15
CMP%62.7
YDs3587
TD22
INT11
YD/Att7.15
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CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 123.1
FantasyPros ADP: 102.0
Somehow, he's a sleeper because ... His ADP is heavily weighted by his injury, not his ability. Before getting hurt, Mahomes averaged 23.6 Fantasy points per game over 14 games in 2025 in six-point leagues, including a ridiculous 28.1 per game in his first six without Rashee Rice. Adding Kenneth Walker III to the offense should take pressure off of Mahomes to do it all, but Walker will also make the Chiefs' play-action passing game more lethal, plus Walker has earned praise this offseason for receiving skills that weren't often seen in Seattle. It's especially notable that Kansas City's O-line looks better this year than last, and the receiving corps will enter the year healthy and available -- and Mahomes appears to be the same even after suffering a torn left ACL and LCL in December. There isn't an easier high-floor, high-ceiling pick in Round 9-plus in Fantasy this year than Mahomes.
I'd draft him: Round 9/10 turn, around 110th overall

Mark Andrews
BAL • TE • #89
TAR70
REC48
REC YDs422
REC TD5
FL0
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CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 122.5
FantasyPros ADP: 124.0
He's a sleeper because ... He's healthy, he won't lose targets to Likely anymore, and new Ravens playcaller Declan Doyle was brought up as a tight ends coach, but the real reason to like Andrews is because he's always been Mr. Reliable for Lamar Jackson, and we're expecting a big year from Jackson. Baltimore seems to be moving away from RB-heavy formations in favor of TE-heavy ones, and Andrews is the only Ravens tight end with even one year of experience with the team. Everyone else in the group is new, and none of Durham Smythe, Matt Hibner or Josh Cuevas have the receiving chops of Andrews. His schedule is also favorable to begin the year.
I'd draft him: Round 10

Chigoziem Okonkwo
WAS • TE • #85
TAR79
REC56
REC YDs560
REC TD2
FL0
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CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 144.3
FantasyPros ADP: 144.3
He's a sleeper because ... The Commanders doled out $17 million in guaranteed money for Okonkwo without giving a contract to any other pass-catchers. He's expected to replace Zach Ertz in Washington's offense, which is a big deal since Ertz was the safety blanket for Jayden Daniels for much of the past two seasons. The 17.2% target per route run rate Ertz had with Daniels on the field was just okay, but Okonkwo should command a higher number given his athleticism and the lack of alternatives Daniels will have outside of Terry McLaurin. It's also worth remembering Okonkwo's yards after the catch and avoided tackle rate over his past three seasons dwarfs what Ertz did in his past two in D.C. The door is open for Okonkwo to make a decent splash in Washington's thin offense not only because of the modest targets he'll command but because of what he can do with the ball in his hands after the catch.
I'd draft him: Round 11, around 125th overall

Malik Willis
MIA • QB • #2
CMP%85.7
YDs422
TD3
INT0
YD/Att12.06
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CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 154.0
FantasyPros ADP: 137.0
He's a sleeper because ... His small sample size as a starter for the Packers shouldn't be ignored, especially with a late-round dart throw. Willis scored at least 27 Fantasy points in two starts where he threw at least 15 passes (15 in one start with 14 pass attempts). His completion rate in each of three starts never fell below 68.5%, his yards per attempt never below 8.7, his TD rate never lower than 4.8%, he never threw even one interception, his catchable throw rate was never below 92.9% and his QB rating was never below 120.9. Best of all, he had at least six rushes and at least 41 rush yards in each game. I'm not saying Willis will keep up these types of numbers as Miami's starter, but even if he's within striking distance of these metrics, then he'll put up very nice Fantasy numbers.
I'd draft him: Round 12, around 140th overall

CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 150.0
FantasyPros ADP: 152.3
He's a sleeper because ... He should carve out a small role right away and potentially grow into a larger one if J.K. Dobbins misses some games. A year ago, Broncos rookie running back R.J. Harvey was commanding attention, but he wound up being a factor only because he scored 12 touchdowns and caught 47 passes. That was a delightful combination, but Coleman was a short-yardage monster at Washington (converted 21 of 25 downs of 1 yard to go, including 5 of 6 at the one-yard line) as well as a very good pass protector. There's a lot of camp left to figure out if Coleman can handle both of those roles, but if he can, then he'll take Harvey (and Dobbins) off the field in spots where Fantasy points can be had. It's rare when three running backs from the same team get picked in a Fantasy draft, and it's even more rare when the one taken last winds up as the best, but there's potential here for touchdowns on top of contingency upside for 12-plus touches a game when (if?) Dobbins misses time.
I'd draft him: Round 12/13

Greg Dulcich
MIA • TE • #85
TAR33
REC26
REC YDs335
REC TD1
FL1
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CBS Sports Offseason ADP: 156.2
FantasyPros ADP: 177.5
He's a sleeper because ... He's in position to be one of Miami's top target-getters. The Dolphins' house-cleaning at wide receiver left their cupboard pretty bare. Jalen Tolbert has experience and Malik Washington has some quickness, but it's Dulcich that can be a mismatch against linebackers and safeties. It doesn't hurt that Willis had a 18.2% target rate to his tight ends in Green Bay and 33.3% in Tennessee. I wish there was more to say, but there really isn't. Dulcich represents one of the best TE values you could snare late in drafts, and if he stinks against the Raiders in Week 1, then you can move on from him without a second thought.
I'd draft him: Round 13, around 150th overall

Rapid fire sleepers

Jalen Nailor: May have great target opportunity in Las Vegas. Good hands, good balance, capable of winning in tight spaces, but may need to be schemed up a lot. Round 10.

Jordan James, Kaelon Black: Christian McCaffrey is coming off a career-high 450 total touches, 33 more than his previous high. McCaffrey has missed extensive playing time after each of his prior two years with 400 or more touches (2019, 2023). And he's 30 years old. James and Black figure to split reps if McCaffrey becomes sidelined -- both are physical backs without great receiving profiles. Round 11+.

Ray Davis: James Cook is coming off a career-high 385 total touches, 60 more than his previous high. Davis would see a lot of playing time if Cook misses action. Davis has scored at least 13.7 PPR points in 4 of 5 career games with at least 10 touches. Round 13+.

Jaylin Noel: Expected to be Texans' new slot receiver. Shifty receiver with underrated quickness. Might benefit from any limitations their running backs have in the pass game. Might see a target share as high as 20 percent even with Nico Collins healthy. Round 13+. 

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