If the recent string of medium to large sized slates seemed too good to be true, well it was. Tuesday brings us a reality check in the form of a brutal five game slate. It also helps you determine if you're an optimist or a pessimist.
The optimist sees Rockets, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Suns and figures their opponents are about to score a ton of points. The pessimist sees the Heat, Raptors, Knicks, and Celtics and wonders how anyone is going to score.
Of course, the truth is somewhere in the middle, but the story of the night might be pricing. Carmelo Anthony and Karl-Anthony Towns are among a slew of players who rode a hot January to a price that feels uncomfortable.
Unfortunately, if you exclude those players based on (a lack of) value, you're left with a small pool that exposes you to the most likely blowout in Phoenix. These circumstances lead me to a lot of intriguing tournament plays and completely scares me away from cash.
Injury Report
C Hassan Whiteside $7,900 MIA @ HOU (Oblique) - Out
PF Amar'e Stoudemire $4,200 will play more minutes
C Dwight Howard $7,800 HOU vs. MIA (Suspended) - Out
PF Clint Capela $4,400 will see more minutes
PG Brandon Knight $6,500 PHO vs. TOR (Groin) - Out
PG Archie Goodwin $4,800 will see more minutes
SF Jae Crowder $6,100 BOS @ NYK (Shin) - Questionable
SF Evan Turner $5,200 would see more minutes
SG Kobe Bryant $5,800 LAL vs. MIN (Shoulder) - Questionable
SG Lou Williams $5,700 would see more minutes
PG Jose Calderon $4,400 NYK vs. BOS (Groin) - Questionable
PG Jerian Grant $3,700 would see more minutes
PG Tyler Johnson $4,000 MIA @ HOU (Shoulder) - Out
PG Beno Udrih $3,500 will see more minutes
SF TJ Warren $3,900 PHO vs. TOR (Ankle) - Questionable
SF PJ Tucker $4,800 would see more minutes
Tuesday's Slate
Minnesota @ Los Angeles Lakers
Fantasy Points Allowed: 412.1
Karl-Anthony Towns may be lapping the field in the Rookie of the Year race, but I'm still not sure he's an $8,600 player. He'll be extremely popular though in a great matchup against the Lakers. In cash games I can understand the reluctance to fade him, but there are other centers I like more in tournaments. These teams are so bad that virtually everyone is in play, but the Lakers will gain even more value if Kobe Bryant is ruled out.
Milwaukee @ Portland
Fantasy Points Allowed: 402.3
Greg Monroe is the center I was referencing above. At $700 less than Towns against a matchup nearly as good, Monroe should be lower owned, giving him more tournament upside. Damian Lillard is my top play of the night and I don't hate the idea of pairing him with the opposing point guard, Michael Carter-Williams.
Miami @ Houston
Fantasy Points Allowed: 397
This is the game that is causing me the most angst this morning. Houston is terrible defensively, but I've been priced out of Dwyane Wade. The absence of Dwight Howard (suspension) likely means both teams play more small ball. Trevor Ariza and Chris Bosh feel like the best values, with James Harden as a very risky tournament play.
Toronto @ Phoenix
Fantasy Points Allowed: 395.5
This is such a terrible matchup for the Suns guards that I can't imagine many people will play Archie Goodwin after his past three games. That makes him a pretty great tournament option considering all he has to do is shoot better and he'll start hitting value again. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both possess huge upside with the only risk being the near-certain blowout.
Boston @ New York
Fantasy Points Allowed: 392.4
Jae Crowder's status could elevate Evan Turner to one of my favorite mid-range plays of the day. I'm not particularly excited about anyone on the Knicks.
Top Five
PG
1. Damian Lillard $8,800 POR vs. MIL
2. Ricky Rubio $6,700 MIN @ LAL
3. Michael Carter-Williams $6,200 MIL @ POR
4. Goran Dragic $5,400 MIA @ HOU
5. Kyle Lowry $9,000 TOR @ PHO
SG
1. DeMar DeRozan $8,200 TOR @ PHO
2. James Harden $10,900 HOU vs. MIA
3. Khris Middleton $7,300 MIL @ POR
4. CJ McCollum $7,300 POR vs. MIL
5. Zach LaVine $4,700 MIN @ LAL
SF
1. Trevor Ariza $6,000 HOU vs. MIA
2. Evan Turner $5,200 BOS @ NYK
3. Carmelo Anthony $9,000 NYK vs. BOS
4. Luol Deng $4,800 MIA @ HOU
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo $7,500 MIL @ POR
PF
1. Clint Capela $4,400 HOU vs. MIA
2. Kristaps Porzingis $6,700 NYK vs. BOS
3. Chris Bosh $7,600 MIA @ HOU
4. Julius Randle $6,100 LAL vs. MIN
5. Jabari Parker $5,200 MIL @ POR
C
1. Gorgui Dieng $5,500 MIN @ LAL
2. Karl-Anthony Towns $8,600 MIN @ LAL
3. Greg Monroe $7,900 MIL @ POR
4. Mason Plumlee $5,700 POR vs. MIL
5. Alex Len $4,600 PHO vs. TOR
Five Under $5,000
PG Archie Goodwin $4,800 PHO vs. TOR
SG Allen Crabbe $4,200 POR vs. MIL
SF Shabazz Muhammad $3,700 MIN @ LAL
PF Ed Davis $4,100 POR vs. MIL
C Tyson Chandler $4,800 PHO vs. TOR
