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USATSI

It's been a long time since we've seen ace upside from Shane Baz. Since opening the season with double-digit strikeouts in two of his first three starts, Baz had gone 12 straight starts with six or fewer strikeouts, posting a 5.80 ERA and 1.48 WHIP that surely had many Fantasy players considering whether it was even worth the trouble of rostering him.

So, how much should Thursday's start change that?

Baz dominated the Royals for eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits and, notably, one walk, while striking out nine. The nine strikeouts are his most since an 11-strikeout effort on April 14, while the one walk comes after he walked four in each of his previous two starts.

That's notable because Baz introduced his new cutter three starts ago, and it was his most-used pitch in this one. Introducing a new pitch is always an interesting move for a struggling pitcher because it has the potential to reset the board for them. But, in Baz's case, that hadn't happened; it was looking like a pretty good pitch by whiff rate and quality of contact allowed, but when he was walking eight over two starts, it's hard to get too excited about it.

But Thursday was exciting. The cutter led the way for Baz, generating six swinging strikes on 18 swings, and his command was terrific; nearly every cutter he threw landed either up and in to lefties or away to righties. And he even generated a very strong 41% chase rate for the day, including a 52% mark with the cutter – something that has been an issue for him even when things were going well. 

The cutter has replaced the slider for Baz, and he seems to have a much better feel for the harder pitch already. He's aiming middle and letting the pitch's natural glove-side movement carry it to either the high or low corner, depending on whether he's looking for a chase or a called strike. It worked masterfully in this one, and it could be a game-changer for him.

The command of that pitch was terrific Thursday, and the results were incredible, but again, he had eight walks in his previous two starts combined since starting to throw the pitch, and he allowed five runs in one of them. This was an impressive start – an emphatic one, even – but it's too soon to say it fundamentally changes how we should view Baz. There's a chance we look back at the introduction of this cutter as a turning point in his season, but at the very least, I think we can say this: If you were on the verge of dropping Baz, you can't do it now. 

Whether I'm ready to raise him back up in my rankings is a question I'll need at least another start to have a good answer for. But I do have five players I did raise in my rankings in my update Thursday, so before we get to the rest of the standout performances and news from Thursday's action around MLB, let's take a look at five names who moved up in my latest update:

Five rankings risers

Ronald Acuna, Braves – OF2

If Corbin Carroll hadn't gotten hurt this week, I might have had a tough argument with myself about who to rank higher, but I think Acuna would have ended up here anyway. I think you can already make a case that he should be the No. 2 player in Fantasy the rest of the way, too. That would require jumping him ahead of Bobby Witt and Shohei Ohtani, of course, which is asking a lot. On the other hand, Acuna is hitting .369/.485/.658 through his first 31 games with nine homers, and the underlying numbers largely back it up – his .436 xwOBA is the second-best mark of his career and would rank just ahead of Ohtani for the season. And, while Ohtani hasn't even attempted a steal since May 23, Acuna has three in his past seven games after stealing just one in his first 24. Acuna is probably never going to get back to being a 70-steal guy like he was in 2023, but if he's back to being a 30-40 steal guy already, I don't really see a good argument against him being the No. 2 player in Fantasy at this point. We couldn't have asked for a better return from his second torn ACL. 

Logan Gilbert, Mariners – SP12

This isn't quite where Gilbert was before his elbow injury, and I'm not sure I could ever get there in-season for someone who dealt with an elbow sprain. There's just too much inherent risk there. But despite a slightly inflated ERA thanks to three homers allowed in his most recent start, Gilbert has more or less looked like himself since coming back, and there aren't many pitchers who look better than Gilbert at this point. His slider has been better than so far this season, but it's really the splitter that has become the main attraction for Gilbert, generating a truly absurd 51.1% whiff rate and .088 xwOBA allowed. It has become one of the best weapons in baseball, and my only concerns for Gilbert are health related. 

(For more on the development of Gilbert's splitter, check out this excellent piece from Mikey Ajeto at BaseballProspectus.com this week.)

Ranger Suarez, Phillies – SP26

This might be too low. You probably think it's too low. He has a 2.08 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the season while averaging 6.5 innings per start for a good Phillies team, and even his xERA of 2.54 mostly backs it up. Suarez is pitching at an unbelievable level right now, and it's not like it's totally out of nowhere: He had an even better stretch last summer, where he posted a 1.64 ERA over 15 starts. The only thing holding me back is the fact that Suarez more or less immediately fell apart from that point on, posting a 6.54 ERA over his next 11 starts while missing some time with a back injury. When he's on and executing like this, Suarez has proven he can perform at a high level for stretches. He's just never proven he can sustain it for more than a month or two. SP26 gives him plenty of credit, while still baking in some room for the regression that has caught up with him every prior time. 

Chase Burns, Reds – SP31

Yeah, this one's aggressive. But I really believe in the talent – Burns isn't quite on Paul Skenes' level as a prospect, but he's just about the next best thing. And he acquitted himself very well in his first MLB start, striking out eight Yankees in five innings, with the three runs allowed inflated by some iffy defense behind him. Burns' fastball and slider combo have strong Hunter Greene vibes, and his secondary pitches are probably already further along than Greene's have ever been. That's not to say he's already as good or better than Greene, but I do think Burns has that kind of upside. Dropping him at SP31 is a way to hedge my bets, because there's always risk with an unproven player, but I do think Burns has ace upside. As much as I like Jacob Misiorowski, Burns is only one spot behind him. 

Yandy Diaz, Rays – 1B15

We haven't talked much about Diaz, but at a moment when many of the early breakouts at 1B are flagging, he's starting to surge. And his underlying numbers suggest this may be the best version of him we've ever seen. His expected batting average of .308 and expected slugging percentage of .513 are the best of his career, and the fact that he's playing half his games in a much better home park than he used to be in should only help. He got off to a shaky start to the season, but is up to a .286/.339/.464 line for the season, and while his career-low walk rate makes him a worse real-life hitter, it actually helps his Fantasy appeal in Roto leagues – walks help you score runs, but they take away opportunities for the hits, homers, and RBI we really want. Diaz is on pace for 90 RBI and nearly 25 homers, which would be the best marks of his career. If that batting average does push closer to .300, which might just be the best version of Diaz yet.