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There's going to be very little debate about the very top end of the pitching rankings for 2026. You might prefer one of Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, or Garrett Crochet, but there's no question that those three are going to come off the board in some order, and will likely all be first-round picks. They're all basically perfect pitchers and are clearly well ahead of the pack for 2026. 

After those three are off the board, though? It's the Wild West. There's a big, wide-open tier after those first three are off the board, and I think you can make a real case for up to 10 different pitchers being worth ranking with the No. 4 spot. Whether you want to target upside with your first pitcher or safety, you've got options in that group, for sure. 

In a newsletter later this week, I'll give some higher-level thoughts on the state of starting pitching entering 2026, as we've done for every other position so far, but today, I want to zoom in on that No. 4 SP discussion, because I think it's going to dominate a lot of Fantasy Baseball analysis around the position this offseason. So, before we do a more overarching look at the SP position, let's dive into the case for and against the top contenders for that No. 4 spot – and you can more or less think of this as a breakdown of the second tier of starting pitchers as well: 

The case for (and against) the No. 4 SP contenders

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers

The case for: I mean, just look at the season he's having – and especially look at the postseason he's having, with consecutive complete games in the NLCS and World Series. That's going to be what pushes Yamamoto into position as the consensus No. 4 SP, I think, but it's not like it's a total overreaction to a small sample or anything – he had the fourth-best ERA, sixth-best WHIP, and fifth-best strikeout rate of any qualifying pitcher in 2025. He's backed up by the most talented roster in the majors and has a relatively limited injury history. 

The case against: The biggest thing here is just that, in a best-case scenario, he's almost always going to end up at a volume deficit to his peers. Nobody makes 35-plus starts anymore, but you'll still see at least a handful of guys get up to 32-34 per year; Yamamoto is likely capped at 30 starts as the Dodgers have never let him pitch on four days of rest and likely never will. It'll likely come out to just a couple of starts over the course of six or so months, but when you're comparing everyone's best-case scenario, I think Yamamoto clearly comes out behind at least a few of the other guys in his range of drafts. Is the No. 4 pitcher spot really where you should be chasing floor, rather than ceiling? 

Logan Gilbert, Mariners

The case for: Gilbert threw at least 185 innings in each season from 2022 through 2024, peaking at an MLB-high 208.2 in 2024. That best-case scenario is absolutely there for his workload, and while we haven't seen a season with an ERA below 3.00 from him yet, I think the skills are absolutely there – he has a 3.13 and 3.03 xERA over his past two seasons. And the strikeout rate took a big step forward in 2025 to 32.3%, as his splitter continued to develop into one of the absolute best putaway pitches in the majors. Gilbert is the kind of pitcher who could absolutely crash that top three if everything goes right. 

The case against: Everything certainly didn't go right in 2025. The primary issue was a strained elbow flexor that cost him nearly two months early in the summer and led to some inconsistencies as he worked his way back. That's the only injury red flag on Gilbert's track record, but it's recent enough and to a concerning enough body part that we can't just dismiss it. He also seems to struggle with consistency in general, especially away from home, and wasn't especially impressive in the postseason, striking out just 20% of hitters in 15 innings of work. I won't hold that against him, but that recency bias could hurt him in some folks' eyes. 

Chris Sale, Braves

The case for: The only pitchers with a lower ERA over the past two seasons than Sale? Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. The only pitcher with a higher strikeout rate than Sale? Garrett Crochet. The case for Sale kinda speaks for itself, doesn't it? He's on a solid team that I expect to be better in 2026, and when he's on the mound, there isn't really a strong argument to be made against him being the No. 4 SP. And the injury concerns are, in my opinion, kind of overblown – he hasn't missed time with an arm injury just once in the past four seasons, when he missed two months in 2022 with a shoulder injury that has not recurred since. It's mostly been fluke-y broken bone injuries otherwise, and I just don't think it's fair to hold that against him. 

The case against: Okay, fair or not, Sale has made just 80 starts over the past five seasons, and has topped 130 innings just once since 2019. And he'll turn 37 shortly after Opening Day next season. It hasn't really impacted his skills yet, and I'm personally willing to bet on the injuries being fluke-y. But I'll bet I'm in the minority on that one, and most Fantasy players and analysts simply won't be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt anymore. I get it. 

Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies

The case for: I'm going to give it an honest try, but I'll be honest: I don't really see the case for Sanchez as the No. 4 SP, even though I suspect he'll be a pretty popular choice. And that's mostly because he's coming off a season where he topped 200 innings with a 2.50 ERA and doesn't have much of a recent injury history to speak of. He took a big step forward in his strikeout rate in 2025 and, armed with an elite changeup, I think some think there might be more room for growth in that regard. 

The case against: This is the ultimate floor play for your ace, except he's only pitched at this level for one season. Sanchez is very, very good. Occasionally, he's absolutely brilliant. But he seems like one of the more likely bets to take a step back among the high-end pitchers, and for as good as he was in 2025, he wasn't even a top-four pitcher when he had a near best-case scenario season. 

Jacob deGrom, Rangers

The case for: deGrom's 172.2 innings were by far his most since 2019, and it was his first season without missing a start due to an elbow injury since 2020. That's a very good sign that his surgically repaired UCL is in good shape, and he intentionally dialed his velocity back with the stated goal of staying healthier. At 37, it worked, and he rewarded us with a 0.92 WHIP and 2.97 ERA, and a top-12 finish among starting pitchers. And, given his track record (and his still-elite per-pitch numbers), it's not unreasonable to think there could be another level deGrom can reach in 2026. 

The case against: You will note, of course, that we got close to a best-case scenario season from deGrom in terms of health, and he was just the No. 12 starter in Fantasy. In part, that's because he got just 12 wins in 30 starts, and I'd bet on more than that in 2026 if he stays that healthy. But it's also because he struck out just 185 batters, with his lowest strikeout rate since 2016. The bet on deGrom coming into 2025 was that, while he was an incredibly risky pick, the upside made it worth it. Going into 2026, it feels like the opposite is kind of true – deGrom might be more of a floor play than a ceiling player at this point in his career. 

Hunter Brown, Astros

The case for: I'm a little bit surprised Brown isn't getting more of the love Sanchez is as a contender for the No. 4 spot. He didn't provide the volume Sanchez did, falling about 17 innings short (in one fewer start), but his per-inning performance was probably a little stronger, with a slight edge in strikeout rate, ERA, and WHIP. Sanchez has slightly better ERA estimators thanks to better results on balls in play (and slightly better control), but that can fluctuate wildly from year to year. I'll probably rank Sanchez ahead of Brown, but they'll be back-to-back for me, and I suspect there will be a bigger gap in their prices than that.

The case against: Brown struggled to sustain his velocity throughout the season, and it was down sharply in September, especially. It's also a legit six-pitch arsenal that generates a lot of weak contact, but the underlying swing-and-miss skills aren't as strong as you'd expect for a guy who struck out 28.3% of opposing hitters – he ranked 23rd among qualifiers in swinging strike rate, compared to seventh in strikeout rate. It's not unreasonable to expect some regression with the strikeout rate, as a result, and I'm not sure the elite skills are there to keep him in the top-five discussion if and when that happens. Again, he's more "great" than "elite." 

Bryan Woo, Mariners

The case for: Woo shrugged off concerns about durability to become arguably the league's best workhorse in 2025, leading the majors with a whopping 27 starts (out of 30) of at least six innings. But he isn't just a volume merchant – Woo's fastball-heavy approach limits damage on contact, and he bumped his strikeout rate up to 27.1%. And there might be room to grow there with his slider and sweeper combo, both sporting at least above-average whiff rates. It's the combination of floor and ceiling that makes Woo so interesting, and he could be the next Zack Wheeler, who combines workhorse workloads with elite per-inning production. 

The case against: The injury track record isn't great. His 2025 regular season came to an early end due to a pec injury, and while he was able to pitch through it in the postseason, it's hard not to be worried about the wear and tear of throwing so many more innings than he ever had. Woo was in and out of games constantly in 2024, suffering multiple elbow and forearm issues, as well as a hamstring injury that required an IL stint. His emergence as one of the best bets for volume in 2025 was one of the biggest surprises of the season, and he doesn't exactly have the track record to back it up (yet). 

Hunter Greene, Reds

The case for: I'm open to the idea that we should just prioritize skills at pitcher rather than worrying about innings or injury concerns, and if that's the approach you want to take, Greene is the pitcher for you. He enjoyed a breakout season in 2024 despite a dip in strikeout rate, and then he got the strikeouts back, cut his walk rate by three percentage points, and now legitimately looks like one of the handful of best pitchers in the world. Greene is blessed with one of the best fastballs in the world, and his slider might be even better, recording a 47% whiff rate and .263 xwOBA in 2025. With a 2.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the past two seasons, Greene isn't just a No. 4 contender – he could be the best pitcher in Fantasy if he stays healthy. 

The case against: That's no small "if." In fact, it's a pretty giant one for a pitcher who sits at 100 mph and has had five IL trips in four seasons in the bigs – and had Tommy John surgery before that. His injuries in 2025 weren't to his arm, thankfully, but he did miss more than a month in 2024 with an elbow injury and missed about the same amount of time in 2022 with a shoulder strain. Greene has some mild performance concerns – he gives up a lot of loud contact in a bad home park for it, and his walk rate could regress to pre-2025 levels – but here it's more about whether you think it's worth betting he can stay healthy. If you're all about upside, this is the pick for you, but you have to downgrade him in leagues without IL spots to play with. 

Max Fried, Yankees

The case for: Fried shrugged off whatever concerns there might have been about his health in 2025, throwing a career-high 195.1 innings with a 2.86 ERA and 189 strikeouts. He has a great team backing him up, a proven track record of high-level performance, and a deep and varied pitch mix that lets him attack pretty much any challenge that comes his way. And he did all that in 2025 despite a weird mid-summer dip in production that he overcame in the end. 

The case against: There's very little performance risk for Fried, and he's likely to be at least a B+ across the board. I'm just not sure he's likely to be much more than that. Fried has never had a strikeout rate over 25.7%, and even in a very good 2025 season, he had a 1.10 WHIP. If you could pencil him in for 200-plus innings every season, it might be enough to overcome the relatively small flaws in his game, but that isn't the case with Fried, who reached 190 innings for the first time in his career in 2025. He missed time in 2023 and 2024 with forearm injuries as well – remember, this time last year, Fried's health was a real question mark. We might see some folks rank Fried as the No. 4 SP, but I don't really see the case for it here. 

Cole Ragans, Royals

The case for: Here's another example of the "just forget about injuries" case. I have no performance-related questions about Ragans, despite his 4.67 ERA in 2025, which mostly came during the stretch immediately preceding both of his IL stints. Ragans came back from his shoulder injury in September and struck out 22 hitters in 13 innings and looked no worse for the wear, and the underlying numbers all season were beastly. He had a 2.63 xERA and a bonkers 38.1% strikeout rate, and while that rate isn't likely to prove sustainable, Ragans is absolutely an elite strikeout pitcher with a whole arsenal full of whiff pitches. I would project a sub-3.00 ERA and close to 12 K/9, and I'm not sure there's more than a couple of other pitchers I would say both of those things about for 2026. 

The case against: It's injuries. He had surgery on his elbow in both 208 and 2019, and then missed three months with a shoulder issue this summer. He got through 186.1 innings in 2024, but has never thrown more than 140 in a season otherwise, including just 72 in 2025 between the majors and the minors. On a per-inning basis, Ragans is as dominant as basically anyone outside of that top tier of three, and if you want to make the case for just prioritizing talent, he's a viable candidate for the No. 4 spot. I'm just not sure I want to take that risk. 

"Why didn't you include …"

  • Zack Wheeler, Phillies – It was supposed to be a Big Four. Wheeler was potentially pitching his way to his first Cy Young and might have been a first-round pick before a blood clot ended his season early and necessitated thoracic outlet surgery. Wheeler could be ready for Opening Day, but at 35 years old and coming off significant surgery, I just don't know how we could draft him expecting dominance. I'll be rooting for it, but he simply can't be drafted this early. 
  • George Kirby, Mariners – Even if I didn't have questions about Kirby, I don't think he'd really be a candidate for my No. 4 spot – he just doesn't have the strikeout upside and has never really shown the elite run prevention skills. But Kirby also clearly wasn't himself this season, with his arm slot dropping after his return from a shoulder injury, which negatively impacted his fastball shape and cost Kirby the ability to throw his splitter or changeup. I suspect he'll spend the offseason working to get his old arm slot back, and if he does, he could be a fantastic discount pick in drafts. But he won't be a No. 4 candidate. 
  • Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves – Schwellenbach has the talent. He has elite command of a deep arsenal and saw a velocity jump that led to an even better fastball. And then he broke down, suffering a fractured elbow in July that ended his season, another in a relatively long line of injuries Schwellenbach has suffered in a relatively short amount of time as a pitcher. The talent is there, but Schwellenbach doesn't have the proven strikeout upside to overlook his injury history.
  • Joe Ryan, Twins – Honestly? Ryan is good, but he's usually not much more than just good, at least not in the long run. He gets a lot of strikeouts and has stretches of dominance, but at the end of the day, his ERA ends up a little uglier than you'd expect. He does carry a good WHIP with him, which helps, but playing on a mediocre Twins team is another weight dragging him down. 
  • Blake Snell, Dodgers – Someone's gonna try to make the case for it. But it ain't gonna be me. Snell might end up with elite ratios at the end of the season, but it's never a smooth ride to get there, and he rarely gives you ace volume. Great pitcher, and he'll put up stretches as good as any pitcher in baseball. But he's too volatile to be in this discussion. 
  • Logan Webb, Giants – It's the WHIP. I'm actually a big fan of Webb and I think he's super fun to watch pitch – I especially love the way he saves his sneaky-dominant four-seamer for two-strike counts – but two straight seasons of 200-plus innings with a WHIP over 1.20 is just tough to stomach. He's an awesome No. 2 SP as a rotation stabilizer who allows you to take some risks with the rest of your staff, but he isn't a real contender for the No. 4 spot. 
  • Spencer Strider, Braves – I mean, yeah, you can talk me into Strider still having this upside. But we didn't see it in 2025, as his fastball velocity flagged and dragged down his whole game. If we get to the spring and Strider is sitting at 97 mph and blowing hitters away, maybe we can have the discussion about pushing Strider up our draft boards. But even then, I can't see a world where he gets anywhere close to the top five again.