2009 outlooks: Detroit Tigers

So often you hear of the Cinderella story, of the team coming off a last-place finish -- with expectations low and believers few and far between -- that catches fire late in a pennant race and surges into the playoffs for an unexpected championship run.

But rarely do you hear of the opposite, of the team favored by all the preseason publications -- with expectations impossibly high and believers set to crown them champions in March -- that fizzles in the early going and ends up the doormat of its division.

The Tigers did just that in 2008, riding the high of their 2006 trip to the World Series and the momentum of their offseason blockbuster with the Marlins -- one that netted them Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis -- to a last-place finish, behind even the lowly Royals.

And as if their situation couldn't get any worse, consider all the damage done during their disastrous 2008 campaign. They lost an emerging Cy Young candidate (Justin Verlander) to inexplicable mediocrity, another flamethrower with ace potential (Jeremy Bonderman) to unending elbow and shoulder concerns, an overpowering lefty and near Cy Young winner (Willis) to historically bad control problems, a middle-of-the-order slugger and potential Hall of Famer (Gary Sheffield) to age and declining bat speed, and an All-Star shortstop (Edgar Renteria) -- who they acquired for two top prospects (Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez), by the way -- to free agency.

And, oh yeah, third baseman Carlos Guillen missed about one-third of the season with his usual slew of injuries, but you probably assumed as much.

Pretty bad, right? Faced with so many key losses and question marks, you might expect a team -- one with playoff aspirations, anyway -- to shore up its roster in the offseason.

The Tigers' solution? Well, they just moved a catcher (Brandon Inge) to third base and a third baseman (Guillen) to the outfield, thereby making themselves weaker at two positions, at least offensively. And let's not forget they signed Adam Everett to replace Renteria at shortstop -- a move that usually forces a team to reach into its minor-league system two months into the season.

Yes, the Tigers decided to fill their holes by creating new ones, and when you look over their short list of assets -- one scattered with aging, injury-prone underachievers -- you see a lineup full of potential holes with few pieces remaining to plug them.

Fun times, indeed.

Of course, the Tigers do have two steady middle-of-the-order hitters in outfielder Magglio Ordonez and first baseman Miguel Cabrera -- still a first-rounder in Fantasy even though he no longer qualifies at third base. They also have a potential 20-20 candidate with the ability to hit .300 in center fielder Curtis Granderson. But for a team solidified across the diamond with no starting jobs up for grabs in spring training, the Tigers don't give you much reason to get excited in Fantasy.

And their rotation doesn't look any more appealing with the sudden downfalls of Verlander, Bonderman and Willis, though Verlander seems a likely candidate to rebound considering the inexplicable nature of his demise. Armando Galarraga, who tends to go late in drafts despite winning 13 games as a rookie last year, looks like the safest bet of the bunch. Willis will try to reclaim one of the final two spots in the rotation, fending off newcomer Edwin Jackson, has-been Nate Robertson, late-season surprise Zach Miner, semi-prospect Chris Lambert and top prospect Rick Porcello -- one of the few remaining gems of a mostly barren farm system. In the bullpen, an erratic Fernando Rodney will try to hold off Brandon Lyon for the closer role, though setup man Joel Zumaya has better stuff and could push either of them for the job if he ever stays healthy.

Potential Breakout: Edwin Jackson, SP

If you look at Jackson's final line in 2008, you might mistake him for the same underachieving prospect that flamed out in the Dodgers organization years ago. But if you remove a miserable September -- a product of him reaching his career high in innings -- he finished with a 3.81 ERA. The 25-year-old still needs to cut down on his walks, but he made significant strides last year, enough to reignite the belief that he might someday emerge as a top- or at least a middle-of-the-rotation-type pitcher. Really, if not for the Rays' overabundance of pitching and need to clear a rotation spot for hot-shot rookie David Price, the Tigers wouldn't have even had a chance to get their grubby little paws on a pitcher as talented as Jackson. Best of all, you probably don't even need to draft him in mixed leagues, so you get a chance to see if he shows signs of breaking out before adding him to your team.

Potential Bust: Magglio Ordonez, OF

Considering how much went wrong for the Tigers in 2008, not much remains that can still go wrong. But if any player figures to fall short of his expectations on Draft Day, it's Ordonez. The 35-year-old still goes off the board in the early rounds, continuing to coast on the fumes of his improbable 2007 season, when he hit .363 -- nearly 50 points higher than his previous career high. Sure, he might bat .300, but he has no better than above-average power, hitting fewer than 30 home runs every year since 2002. He also missed some time last year with an oblique strain, and at his age, the injuries will only become more frequent. In a lot of ways, he's Bobby Abreu without the stolen bases, except Abreu tends to go four or five rounds later.

Potential Sleeper: Brandon Inge, 3B

Yes, Inge again moves from catcher to third base -- a transition he already made once in his career -- which might not sound like good news to you in Fantasy if he didn't retain catcher eligibility heading into next season. But since he does, you have reason to rejoice. You can't count on him for consistency, a high batting average or a league-leading number of RBI, but you can count on him for one thing that no other catcher-eligible player will give you: 550-600 at-bats. The biggest drawback to playing catcher is the amount of rest the position requires, so whenever a catcher moves to another position, he suddenly has an opportunity to play 162 games, meaning he has an opportunity to score more runs and drive in more runs than ever before. As long as he stays healthy, no other catcher-eligible player will come close to Inge's plate appearances, meaning he could easily finish as a top-12 option at the position. Besides, he has always hit better at third base, even blasting 27 home runs there in 2006.

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