2009 outlooks: Cleveland Indians

Rarely does such a disappointing season give a team as much cause for a celebration as the 2008 season gave the Indians, who used it to the lay the groundwork for what shapes up as another run at a division title.

Darlings to win it all after finishing one victory shy of the World Series in 2007, they stumbled out of the gate with a 47-60 record through the first four months of the season. Of course, they had fair excuses for falling short of expectations, whether they wanted to admit them or not. Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez -- their two primary sluggers for the better part of the decade -- began the year cold and then missed more than a month each with injuries. Same for Fausto Carmona, a 19-game winner in 2007 who walked more batters than he struck out in 2008 and actually got worse after serving a DL stint for a strained left hip. In fact, of the three injured superstars, only Martinez got back to playing like close to himself, posting an .807 OPS in the final month of the season.

The Indians found themselves so far out of contention by the middle of July that they had no choice but to trade their best player, ace CC Sabathia, for a haul of minor-leaguers headlined by top prospect Matt LaPorta. Their season was, for all practical purposes, over.

But something changed during those final two months -- ironically, right after the Sabathia trade. Against all odds, a new wave of talent began to pick up the slack, salvaging a wasted season by leading the Indians back to a .500 record.

Shin-Soo Choo, a longtime favorite of stat geeks who spent most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, hit .359 with 10 home runs over that final two-month period, making him arguably the team's MVP. He gives the Indians another steady hitter to go along with 30-30 man Grady Sizemore and slugging shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera also broke out in the second half, hitting .320 with an .862 OPS to emerge as a sleeper at a thin position. Even backup catcher Kelly Shoppach showed the Indians might need to move Martinez out from behind the plate sooner than expected, blasting 21 home runs in 352 at-bats. If Hafner doesn't recapture his MVP form, Shoppach gives the Indians a fallback plan.

Of course, Cliff Lee had the biggest breakout of any Indian last year, capturing the AL Cy Young with 22 wins -- most of them coming during the team's darkest days in the first half. He stands to take a step back just because 22 wins and 2.54 ERAs don't happen in this day and age, but he looks like a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation. Carmona, who has to prove himself again, joins him at the top of the rotation, with soft-tossing lefties Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers both expected to compete for the final three rotation spots along with retreads Anthony Reyes and Carl Pavano and prospects Adam Miller and David Huff. Reyes, a former Cardinals prospect, has the inside track for a job after impressing with a 1.83 ERA in six starts for the Indians last year.

Tired of dealing with all-guts, no-talent closers like Joe Borowski in recent years, the Indians shelled out for Kerry Wood this offseason. He leads a deep bullpen that includes three above-average setup men in Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt.

Potential Breakout: Shin-Soo Choo, OF

Choo obviously can't maintain that .359-hitting, 10-homer pace he set for himself over the final two months of last season, but he compiled his .946 OPS over the entire season, not just those two months. If that number sounds impressive to you, it should. It ranked Choo ahead of David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard and just about every other player you'd consider drafting in the first round. The guy knows how to get on base, and he knows how to pick up extra bases. You shouldn't expect him to hit 30 home runs or anything, but as a late-round pick, he won't disappoint.

Potential Bust: Mark DeRosa, 3B

The Indians acquired DeRosa in the offseason to play third base for them, which sounds all fine and dandy until you remember just how much his 21 home runs last year eclipsed his previous career high of 13. At age 34, he'd have to overcome the laws of nature to keep his stock rising, and even disregarding his age, his history suggests he'll take a big step back power-wise. He just doesn't project as that kind of hitter -- never did. He'll hit around .290 with maybe a dozen homers or so and a decent number of runs scored at the top of the Cleveland lineup. He can suffice as a starting second baseman in Fantasy, but for a middle-round pick, you want something that'll do more than merely suffice.

Potential Sleeper: Travis Hafner, DH

Hafner has fallen so far so fast that he might even go undrafted in your league -- yes, a player who hit .308 with 42 home runs as recently as 2006. The 31-year-old's power inexplicably disappeared a month or two into the 2007 season, and his condition only grew worse over time. He performed so poorly at the beginning of 2008 that the Indians had to disable him with "weakness in his right shoulder." He tried to rehab but struggled just as mightily in his return. With nowhere else to turn, he had Dr. James Andrews perform arthroscopic surgery on the shoulder this offseason -- not that James found anything wrong. Will the procedure help? Who knows? Probably not, but doesn't that slim possibility that it will make Hafner worth a shot in that last round or two on Draft Day? If he doesn't bounce back, you can cut him just like you might cut any other player you draft that late. But if he does, you have a potential first-round talent for practically nothing.

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