'09 Draft Prep: Updated Top 25 rookies to target

What in the name of late Octobers?

David Price is back in Triple-A. If you have lived under a rock this spring, it comes as a complete shock.

"No, I knew it was coming," Price said after being demoted to the minors, "but right now, it kind of stinks a little bit."

The Rays' ALCS Game 7 closer was supposed to be taking flight as one of the aces of baseball this April, not toiling back in the Triple-A holding pattern.

But, it makes sense, if you recall what made Price such an impactful late-season pitcher last year. His first professional season started last May 22. That was the only reason he was as fresh as he was Oct. 19, when he was closing out the Red Sox, and Oct. 29 when he pitched the Rays' last inning of the World Series in the rain-suspended Game 5.

See, to build a pitching staff that will be strong after six months of baseball -- geez, the baseball season is freakin' long -- you have to either count on 12 pitchers conditioned to do six-plus months of pitching or count on organizational depth and reinforcements.

Price is clearly not conditioned to pitch six -- or seven -- months of baseball. He is the primary reinforcement.

"We have obviously spent a lot of time talking about this," Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. "When we came into camp, we came in with an open mind, knowing full well that there were certain developmental issues that we wanted him to focus on and also the workload. And just the increase and how we're going to monitor that."

The Rays can say they are sending Price to the minor leagues to work on things. Fans might think they are doing it to be cheap, like they were with 2008 AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria and the B.J. Upton's and Delmon Young's before him.

Hogwash.

Price is one of the top 25 pitchers in all of baseball right now, be it March, April or May -- for as long as he can pitch this season.

The Rays are just building pitching depth, affording them the chance to keep the Jeff Niemanns and Jason Hammels on the staff now to eat the less meaningful April and May innings, so Price can be fresh to dominate in the September and maybe October ones.

"We had a lot of conversations about ways to get creative," Friedman said, "and went through it for the last two or three weeks at length and ultimately decided that all things considered that this was the right move for David and, in turn, the organization.

"David will help us win games in 2009."

Price's changeup is good enough to win now for the Rays and Fantasy owners. He doesn't need to blow away overmatched Triple-A hitters in April and May to prove it.

"Absolutely," he said, debunking claims his changeup needs work. "I think that's a non-issue. That was way better than my slider, so I don't think that's an issue."

So, the question now is where do we draft Price?

Strangely, his demotion merely drops him to where he should have been going all along, in the middle rounds. He is a stashee in all leagues with reserves and maybe only a late-round flier in leagues without them. You could be taking a zero until June 1 -- although this writer says he returns well before that.

The Rays will be five games behind the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East with their fifth starter getting bounced in the fourth inning just about every time out. Price will be back in Triple-A, sitting 5-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 27 innings. That will change their plans in a hurry.

The 23-year-old pitched around 139 1/3 innings between spring training, the minors, majors and the postseason in 2008. Tampa wants to ensure he doesn't exceed that total by more than 20 percent this season. That is about 170 total innings, but that counts spring training and the postseason.

Our projections had forecasted exactly 169. Chopping off those 27 we see coming in Triple-A -- which means just about all of that 20 percent increase being absorbed in the minors, by the way -- Price becomes our No. 55 starting pitcher in Fantasy Baseball. That makes him a $6 bid in mixed leagues -- although he is sure to go for far more -- and a $15 bid in AL-only formats. Still, he will go for far more, justifiably so.

He is a talent you just cannot find on a street corner or the midseason waiver wire.

We project 9-7 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.231 WHIP and 135 strikeouts in 135 innings. Capable of so much more, sure, but we cannot project more than the Rays are saying he will give us.

The shoulder is a complex and fragile joint, layered with muscles, tendons and tissue. The consequences of overstretching it can be disastrous. Ask Mark Prior. Pedro Martinez. Matt Clement. Or any other pitcher to have undergone major shoulder surgery on the labrum and/or rotator cuff.

We don't like the fact our preseason Nos. 1 (Price) and 2 (Matt Wieters) will be starting in the minor leagues, but we can understand it -- even justify it in the case of Price.

With the season now very close, we provide an upgraded Top 25 rookies to target on Draft Day. This is a living, breathing list that can change on a moment's notice. It is frankly that reason alone that makes us say drafting rookies in Fantasy Baseball as anything more than mid- to late-round fliers -- no matter how talented -- is a crapshoot and a dangerous step into the unknown.

They can be heroes or big fat zeroes.

Updated Top 25 rookies to target

Top 25 rookies to target on Draft Day
RK	Player	TM	Age	POS	2008 high	Destination	Spring training stats through March 25
1	David Price	TB	23	LHP	Majors	Triple-A	2-0, 1.08 ERA, .214 BAA, 10 Ks, 8 1/3 innings
Very few come around with greater expectations, but almost no one has this kind of talent.
2	Matt Wieters	BAL	22	C	Double-A	Triple-A	.343 AVG, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R, 0 SB, .543 SLUG in 35 AB
They remain committed to him starting in the minor leagues, but Gregg Zaun still could hand the job over.
3	Tommy Hanson	ATL	22	RHP	Double-A	Triple-A	1-0, 2.45 ERA, .250 BAA, 14 Ks, 14 2/3 innings
Arizona Fall League is a hitter's league and it couldn't touch him. What an amazing talent on the verge.
4	Cameron Maybin	FLA	21	OF	Majors	Majors	.313-1-2-9-2, .438 SLUG in 48 AB
His steals will be what he should be drafted for, but he figures to be able do everything long term.
5	Travis Snider	TOR	21	OF	Majors	Majors	.359-3-8-6-1, .667 SLUG in 39 AB
His power will be far more intriguing long term, but he is a nice sleeper at a real deep position.
6	Trevor Cahill	OAK	21	RHP	Double-A	Triple-A	2-0, 3.94 ERA, .200 BAA, 10 Ks, 16 innings
We like Cahill over Anderson long term, but Anderson may be more ready to start the season in the majors.
7	Brett Anderson	OAK	21	LHP	Triple-A	Majors	1-1, 2.25 ERA, .276 BAA, 6 Ks, 16 innings
A's injury-hit rotation looks like it will need this shot in the arm out of spring training, so look out in any format.
8	Jordan Zimmermann	WAS	22	RHP	Double-A	Majors	1-1, 3.14 ERA, .232 BAA, 20 Ks, 14 1/3 innings
We are a bit surprised the Nationals would rush him up so soon, but his spring dominance earned him a spot.
9	Elvis Andrus	TEX	20	SS	Double-A	Majors	.255-0-2-7-3, .291 SLUG in 55 AB
Rangers hand the starting SS job to him over Michael Young, but his steals are his lone plus asset.
10	Colby Rasmus	STL	22	OF	Triple-A	Majors	.283-0-5-12-3, .417 SLUG in 60 AB
We thought he should have made the team last spring, and don't think he should make the team this spring.
11	Chris Getz	CHW	25	2B	Majors	Majors	.333-1-7-3-2, .467 SLUG in 45 AB
He beat out a big-time prospect in Gordon Beckham and now might even lead off for a great offense.
12	Scott Lewis	CLE	25	LHP	Majors	Majors	1-1, 3.52 ERA, .241 BAA, 12 Ks, 15 1/3 innings
Winning the Indians' No. 4 starting spot makes him a great sleeper even in mixed leagues on Draft Day.
13	Jason Motte	STL	26	RHP	Majors	Majors	4 saves, 1.08 ERA, .161 BAA, 13 Ks, 8 1/3 innings
With Chris Perez's bad spring, we are thinking if the Cardinals go raw at closer, it will be Motte now.
14	Nick Adenhart	LAA	22	RHP	Majors	Majors	1-0, 4.05 ERA, .240 BAA, 10 Ks, 13 1/3 innings
If not for his poor 2008, he would be a certain top five on this list. Angels injury-hit rotation needs him now.
15	Matt LaPorta	CLE	24	OF	Triple-A	Triple-A	.361-1-4-7-1, .611 SLUG in 36 AB
The biggest mashing prospect around will eventually be a Fantasy superstar, but opens the season in Triple-A.
16	Rick Porcello	DET	20	RHP	High Class A	Double-A	0-1, 4.26 ERA, .379 BAA, 4 Ks, 6 1/3 innings
If he gets time in the rotation, you have to figure it is because the other options are weak. He's being rushed.
17	James McDonald	LAD	24	RHP	Majors	Triple-A	1-2, 5.84 ERA, .277 BAA, 8 Ks, 12 1/3 innings
Another No. 5 rotation candidate who we would have higher on this list if he won a rotation spot in camp.
18	Aaron Poreda	CHW	22	LHP	Double-A	Triple-A	1-1, 6.08 ERA, .245 BAA, 7 Ks, 13 1/3 innings
He opens the year in the majors, but he will be impacting the White Sox and Fantasy before the year is out.
19	Clayton Richard	CHW	25	LHP	Majors	Majors	1-1, 5.06 ERA, .314 BAA, 7 Ks, 21 1/3 innings
He might merely be a back-end starter, but he will start the year in the rotation if Bartolo Colon doesn't.
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	25	C	Majors	Majors	.179-2-5-4-0, .393 SLUG in 28 AB
Jarrod Saltalamacchia is ahead of him right now, but T2 is a future top 10 Fantasy C himself, too.
21	Kenshin Kawakami	ATL	33	RHP	Japan	Majors	1-0, 1.23 ERA, .167 BAA, 7 Ks, 14 2/3 innings
Smallish right-handed import is a real old for a rookie, but he could have a Hiroki Kuroda-like impact.
22	Koji Uehara	BAL	33	RHP	Japan	Majors	0-1, 4.70 ERA, .258 BAA, 12 Ks, 7 2/3 innings
The Orioles have him penciled in as their No. 2 starter, but that's not a good situation for any Fantasy pitcher.
23	Brett Gardner	NYY	25	OF	Majors	Majors	.409-3-6-9-4, .750 SLUG in 44 AB
The Yankees don't have a true center fielder, so this base-stealer could impact Rotisserie if he starts.
24	Gordon Beckham	CHW	22	SS	Low Class A	Double-A	.270-2-6-6-2, .568 SLUG in 37 AB
Our look at him this spring has us giddy behind our original belief. He is going to be a big-time star very soon.
25	Gaby Sanchez	FLA	25	1B	Double-A	Triple-A	.200-0-0-2-0, .267 SLUG in 30 AB
We think Dallas McPherson needs to start and Sanchez needs to be in the minors, but there is potential here.
The dropouts
NR	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	24	RHP	Majors	Triple-A	0-1, 9.75 ERA, 8 K, 2.00 WHIP, 12 innings
This is one of the biggest fallers in Fantasy value this spring. He is going from the rotation to perhaps Triple-A.
NR	Gio Gonzalez	OAK	23	LHP	Majors	Majors	0-0, 4.32 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.08 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings
Minor league strikeout maven had a rotation spot to lose with the A's and went out and did this spring.
NR	Max Ramirez	TEX	24	C	Majors	Triple-A	.600-0-1-1-0, .800 SLUG in 5 AB
Of Texas' catching trio, Ramirez has the most dynamic bat, but he might be the one to open in Triple-A.
NR	George Kottaras	BOS	25	C	Majors	Majors	.273-1-5-4-0, .455 SLUG in 22 AB
The next Kelly Shoppach? Kottaras had 22 Triple-A HRs and could steal some starts from Jason Varitek.
NR	Carlos Carrasco	PHI	22	RHP	Triple-A	Triple-A	2-1, 6.75 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.43 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings
The Phillies might bring their prized pitching prospect along slowly this spring, but look out once he arrives.
NR	David Freese	STL	25	3B	Triple-A	Triple-A	.263-0-2-2-0, .316 SLUG in 19 AB
After Troy Glaus' surgery, his 26 Triple-A homers made him a sleeper to start on opening day. He still might.
NR	Brent Lillibridge	CHW	25	SS	Majors	Majors	.228-0-3-3-1, .263 SLUG in 57 AB
He's insurance in case Getz isn't the answer and he could prove to be a steal in deeper AL-only formats.
NR	Matt Antonelli	SD	23	2B	Majors	Triple-A	.250-0-3-8-0, .344 SLUG in 32 AB
He is still better than Chase Headley in our eyes and a potential starter at second base for the Padres later.
Other potential ROY candidates: Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL; Jeff Niemann, SP, TB; Dexter Fowler, OF, COL; Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT; Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL; Jonathon Niese, SP, NYM; Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL; Brad Mills, SP, TOR and Brett Cecil, SP, TOR.

Projected postseason honors

And we also update our projected All-Rookie Team, guys we expect to make an impact this year, and the All-Prospect Team, those that will be the hottest names in the minors this season at their positions.

All-Rookie Team				All-Prospect Team
C	Matt Wieters	BAL		C	Matt Wieters	BAL
1B	Gaby Sanchez	FLA		1B	Justin Smoak	TEX
2B	Chris Getz	CHW		2B	Alcides Escobar	MIL
3B	Mat Gamel	MIL		3B	Pedro Alvarez	PIT
SS	Elvis Andrus	TEX		SS	Gordon Beckham	CHW
OF	Cameron Maybin	FLA		OF	Cameron Maybin	FLA
OF	Travis Snider	TOR		OF	Colby Rasmus	STL
OF	Colby Rasmus	STL		OF	Jason Heyward	ATL
DH	Matt LaPorta	CLE		DH	Matt LaPorta	CLE
SP	David Price	TB		SP	David Price	TB
SP	Tommy Hanson	ATL		SP	Tommy Hanson	ATL
SP	Trevor Cahill/Brett Anderson	OAK		SP	Madison Bumgarner	SF
SP	Jordan Zimmermann	WAS		SP	Stephen Strasburg	NCAA
SP	Scott Lewis	CLE		SP	Neftali Feliz	TEX
SP	Nick Adenhart	LAA		SP	Chris Tillman	BAL
RP	Jason Motte	STL		RP	Daniel Bard	OAK

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