Who will make College Football Playoff final four? Experts predict semifinalists for 2026 season
With the NCAA Tournament's Final Four approaching, our CBS Sports experts lay out their picks for 2026 CFP semifinalists
The college basketball Final Four takes center stage this weekend, with the men's and women's action tipping off in Indianapolis and Phoenix, respectively. But while basketball fans focus on the hardwood, it's worth looking ahead to another marquee postseason: next year's College Football Playoff.
With the 12-team format now entering its third year, the landscape has already proven unpredictable. Since the expanded field began, only one top-four seed receiving a first-round bye -- reigning national champion Indiana -- has advanced out of the quarterfinals. Last year's seeding rule changes, which eliminated automatic byes for the highest-ranked conference champions, didn't alter that pattern.
CBS Sports' college football writers and experts submitted their early "Final Four" predictions for 2026, revealing both consensus picks and intriguing outliers. It's no surprise that Notre Dame and Ohio State were the most popular picks, reflecting their status as early favorites for the national championship. Each appeared on all but one of the nine ballots submitted. Interestingly, only two different pairs of predictions were identical.
But who else is projected to be in the mix? Below is a look at the complete set of early CFP "Final Four" selections.
David Cobb
Final Four picks: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M
Expect Notre Dame to be a team on a mission in 2026. The furor of a 2025 CFP snub should fuel a Fighting Irish team that operated as one of the nation's best following a 0-2 start. While star running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are gone, that's typically one of the simplest positions to backfill. Ohio State and Texas are easy picks because of their elite QB-WR tandems (Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith for the Buckeyes and Arch Manning and Cam Coleman for the Longhorns). Texas A&M returns a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback in Marcel Reed, and while there are questions on defense, head coach Mike Elko is a man who can find the answers.
Brad Crawford
Final Four picks: Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Texas Tech
As the unbeaten top seed after coasting through the ACC and beating Notre Dame during the regular season for the Fighting Irish's only loss, Miami is going back to the CFP under Mario Cristobal and transfer quarterback Darian Mensah. Texas Tech repeats as Big 12 champions and this time, wins a postseason game to reach the quarters. Arch Manning leads the Longhorns to a title in the SEC, and the other Final Four rep will be Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman is on a mission after last season's snub and has a squad that should be loaded defensively.
Tom Fornelli
Final Four picks: Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon
The one thing these four teams have in common is that they each have a returning starter at QB. We've seen how important experience at that position has been for teams in the playoff, particularly in the expanded field. The other thing they all have in common is that they are ridiculously talented squads who will be near the top of the polls all year and capable of winning multiple playoff games.
Chris Hummer
Final Four picks: Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas
This is an interesting year projecting toward the playoff. Last year, I felt 12-15 teams had a legitimate chance to contend entering the season. That list has narrowed in 2026 as the disparity and spending across the sport have grown. In addition to the four teams above, I'm quite bullish on Oregon, Texas Tech and Miami. But Ohio State, Texas, Georgia and Notre Dame are the teams I feel best about.
All four return their starting quarterbacks, and I expect all four of them to be in the Heisman conversation. All four are also relatively rare in that they each return at least 11 starters during an era where turnover is the reality for most schools. Throw in the fact that those four teams sign annual top-five and top-10 classes, and I believe they're clearly in a top tier by themselves (along with Oregon) entering 2026. That could change as we get closer to the season, but I would be shocked if those four weren't in the 2026 playoff.
Shehan Jeyarajah
Final Four picks: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Texas Tech
This is a make-or-break season for Texas, and the Longhorns will get back to the semis behind Arch Manning's new cadre of weapons. Texas Tech will also blow through the Big 12 behind a veteran offensive line, setting them up with a high seed and a favorable first-round matchup. After getting left out of the College Football Playoff last season, Notre Dame will go on a revenge tour out of the gate. The final spot will be competitive with Georgia, Indiana, USC and many others vying, but I'm not betting against Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin in their final seasons.
Brandon Marcello
Final Four picks: Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State
Notre Dame has the clearest path to the College Football Playoff of any team in America. I'm projecting the Irish to go 12-0, which will ignite debate over whether they deserve the No. 1 seed. They'll withstand every criticism -- the soft schedule, the talk about being snubbed last year -- but don't let any of that overshadow one of the most talented rosters in the country, and Marcus Freeman cementing himself as a top-five coach in the sport.
Here's the part I hate to say out loud: nobody truly knows what happens after that. The field is foggy in April, and if you compare expert predictions, they tend to look eerily similar. That's everyone quietly admitting they're scared of being wrong.
Three Big Ten teams could make the semifinals next January. Oregon's roster is loaded. Ohio State -- not Texas -- should be the favorite in their non-conference clash, even with so many new faces on defense. Michigan might surprise people if Jason Beck's offense catches fire, as I expect it to with QB Bryce Underwood. And Georgia has been quietly rising over the last two years, and though the pass rush isn't what it was four years ago, Kirby Smart's program is stronger in more areas than people acknowledge.
Cody Nagel
Final Four picks: Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon
The Big Ten puts itself in position for a fourth consecutive national championship, with familiar contenders in Ohio State and Oregon leading the charge. The conference has already placed a pair of teams in the CFP semifinals in each of the first two years of the 12-team format, and its depth at the top isn't going anywhere. I'm with Shehan on Notre Dame -- a favorable schedule sets up a real path to 12-0 and potentially the No. 1 overall seed for Marcus Freeman. Texas with Arch Manning is the trendy pick to represent the SEC with a deep postseason run, but Georgia is hard to overlook. Despite back-to-back quarterfinal exits, Kirby Smart's program continues to operate at a championship-caliber baseline.
Austin Nivison
Final Four picks: Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas Tech
The Buckeyes will be one of the favorites to win the national championship in 2026, and it's not hard to see why. Quarterback Julian Sayin is back after finishing fourth in Heisman Trophy voting last year, Matt Patricia returns to run the defense and Ryan Day plucked Arthur Smith from the NFL to run the offense. As for Georgia, experience at the quarterback position has proven valuable in recent years, and the Bulldogs have that in Gunner Stockton. Combine his steady presence under center with Kirby Smart's ferocious defense, and it's a recipe for a deep playoff run.
Texas Tech lost a lot this offseason -- especially on the defensive side of the ball -- but the program once again spent big money in the transfer portal to reload. Plus, the Red Raiders upgraded at quarterback by bringing in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby. Michigan may be more of a long shot to reach the semifinal, but it's not hard to see the path. Bryce Underwood takes a big step forward under new offensive coordinator Jason Beck, and Kyle Whittingham plugs in some Utah transfers on defense to ensure that unit is stout.
Chip Patterson
Final Four picks: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas
This prediction starts with the expectation that an extremely talented Notre Dame team goes 12-0 to claim the No. 1 seed in the bracket while the top teams from the Big Ten and SEC all emerge from league play with at least one loss, either in the regular season or in the conference championship game. From there, it's a projection that Texas finally gets over Georgia in the SEC, and that Ohio State is able to exact some revenge after falling short of a Big Ten title in 2025. Oregon's spot here at No. 4 is an immense amount of respect for Dante Moore and the way last year's team continued to battle through injuries and setbacks, but with the turnover of two coordinators, we have the Ducks running just behind the Buckeyes, figuring Ohio State gets the win when they clash in Columbus on Nov. 7.
Cameron Salerno
Final Four picks: Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State
After an early exit in the College Football Playoff last year, I expect Ohio State to make a return to the semifinals, at least. With Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin likely heading to the NFL Draft after this season, this will be a huge season for both. Speaking of the Big Ten, I'm a believer in Kyle Whittingham. There are not many coaches in the sport who have accomplished more with less than he has during his coaching career. Now he gets access to the resources Michigan has? It's a perfect partnership. My other two picks are Notre Dame and Georgia. I also considered LSU. The Tigers will make the CFP in Year 1 of Lane Kiffin's tenure but will lose in the first round.
