In case there was any doubt, Justin Gaethje's epic upset of Ilia Topuria at the UFC Freedom 250 card guarantees the Arizona-born brawler an eventual spot in the UFC Hall of Fame. Those who have bet on him in 2026 and throughout his career know he's already an honorary member of the sportsbook Hall of Fame, and the undisputed lineal champion of your favorite betting app.
In what is already being labeled the Year of the Underdog, Gaethje's victory at +400 odds (give or take, depending on if and when you backed him) is his second of 2026 as a massive underdog and the latest entry among the sport's all-time classic upsets. He opened the UFC on Paramount+ era in January with an upset over surging contender Paddy Pimblett at odds of around +220.
Even so, fellow American champion Sean Strickland wrote his second chapter in this exclusive ledger with his similarly stunning upset of Russian brute Khamzat Chimaev, also with odds of around +400. This marks the second time Strickland, who at times has been better known for his world views than his fighting skills, has unseated a champion many observers believed was unbeatable at the time.
Nonetheless, recency bias, a rampant condition that has doomed countless sports bettors and tight-fisted fans alike, always suggests what we saw last is much more awesome or worse than what happened somewhere between 5 and 15 years ago.
So where do the Gaethje and Strickland upsets rank in terms of significance for the sport and the sportsbooks, and where do the differences lie? Let's take a look.
In terms of pure MMA betting odds, the Strickland and Gaethje title-fight upsets are nowhere near the all-time top five. We've been following the UFC long enough to have seen tickets with the following prices attached: Matt Serra (+800) over Georges St.-Pierre (-1,300) at UFC 69, Julianna Pena (+725) over Amanda Nunes (-1,100) at UFC 269, Michael Bisping (+700) over Luke Rockhold (-1,000) at UFC 199, T.J. Dillashaw (+650) over Renan Barao (-1,000) at UFC 173 and Holly Holm (+600) over Ronda Rousey (-900) at UFC 193.
Now, some of the above numbers have some wiggle room, considering the prices moved from opening to the closing number, as they are prone to do for every sport. But these tickets we've witnessed were all on the high end of the price spectrum with the exception of Holm, who opened in the +800 range. Regardless, all such title-fight underdogs fetched higher prices than what we've seen in this year's massive upsets.
Even so, the Strickland and Gaethje upsets in 2026 seem to carry the aura that they have more lasting significance. Is this the result of recency bias, or is there something to it? Perhaps a little of both, but we are leaning toward the former prevailing as a legitimate narrative.
Fans who want to wager on MMA and UFC need to see the latest FanDuel promo code.
In short, we don't think it's a stretch to call Gaethje's upset of Topuria the most contextually significant upset in UFC history. The reasons are plainly evident: In the lead-up to the Freedom 250 event, which was loosely linked to a celebration of America's birthday, one of the biggest concerns for both the promotion and U.S.-based fight fans was the real possibility that the main event could end with an underdog American challenger getting flat-lined by his foreign-born opponent on the White House premises while a global fight-watching crowd bore witness.
The general, low-bar consensus was that simply a respectable effort by Gaethje, who was 0-2 in previous title bids, would be enough fend off any real or permanent shame, but many observers believed even that potential outcome was a bit optimistic. Topuria was 17-0, a two-division champion and already walked through the likes of Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, both of whom had stopped Gaethje.
Topuria was the real-life villain in Gaethje's unlikely underdog journey. The 29-year-old Georgian is swaggering and sinister, his slick hair and piercing eyes enough to intimidate stranger and foe alike, his confident yet understated and detached disposition befitting that of a trained assassin. The 37-year-old Gaethje seemed to embrace the role of a glorified bar-room brawler clad in a UFC fight kit, regularly dismissing his world-class wrestling skills so long as the resulting slugfest generated a performance bonus at night's end.
Though Gaethje was analytically the promotion's all-time most prolific showman (15 fights, 15 performance bonuses heading into UFC Freedom 250), he was long considered a slight tier below world-champion caliber. Even his contemporaries, some of whom have shared the octagon with him and now predict fights for a living, gave him next to no chance against Topuria.
What unfolded was an unwritten "Rocky" sequel that transpired in real time. It started with the likable but seemingly flawed American challenger looking over the Declaration of Independence in the White House hallway before sauntering to the cage, serenaded by the sobering anthem "Ain't No Grave." Topuria confidently smirked while circling the perimeter of the White House, perhaps in an unofficial victory-lap rehearsal, as he casually strolled to the octagon. He was seemingly unbothered by the role of hometown-hero spoiler on foreign soil.
It ended with Gaethje back-flipping from the top of the cage to the canvas with an illuminated White House as a backdrop while his defeated opponent was rushed away to seek medical attention. Topiura was forced to surrender after four rounds of relentless raw violence and will-defying moments for both combatants, with his face and veil of invincibility shattered.
Although it's not as if the other mammoth UFC title-fight upsets lacked intriguing storylines, Gaethje's win over Topuria provided a once-in-a-lifetime scene that is unlikely to be challenged in the blood sport of locked-caged combat.
Even so, the UFC's Greatest of All Time Underdog artist award goes to Strickland, whose title-fight double dip at odds of +400 or better currently stands alone in the pantheon of giant killers. As an aside, the YouTube channel MMA on Point recently produced an excellent episode on UFC all-time underdog GOATs and correctly slotted Strickland in the No. 1 position.
His opportunity against Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 in September 2023 came essentially as a by-product of the promotion running thin of challengers to Adesanya. The Nigeria-born New Zealand resident had recently become a two-time champion while also notching five total defenses against the best the middleweight division had to offer.
Strickland was better known as a journeyman-plus level fighter who had a better chance of entertaining a crowd behind a microphone than he did with his effective but conservative fighting style. The first-time title challenger started the week by stealing the pro-Adesanya crowd, as Australians appeared to enjoy his no-holds-barred humor, then stole the middleweight belt by rocking the champion with a flush right hand in the first round and cruising to a dominant decision victory.
Part 2 of Strickland's historic upset double seemed just as unlikely from a probability and practicality standpoint. Long-celebrated Russian prodigy Chimaev had just grazed the first layer of his talent ceiling at age 32 by dominating former champion Dricus du Plessis to capture his first UFC title, and it was widely considered a foregone conclusion that he would simply swat away the 35-year-old Strickland like a stubborn mosquito on a sticky summer night.
Instead, Strickland withstood Chimaev's famous early grappling pressure and eventually forced the Russian to match him in the kickboxing discipline. The challenger surged down the stretch while the younger champion faded, and the air-tight split decision in the main event of UFC 328 in May stamped Strickland's contribution to the UFC history book in permanent ink.
The Strickland and Gaethje upsets are the glowing gems in a 2026 UFC campaign that many MMA observers are accurately dubbing Year of the Underdog.
In the 20 UFC events held so far this year, 10 main-event underdogs have won, and many were far from slight underdogs. This group includes Gaethje's year-opening upset of Pimblett in January to launch the Paramount on UFC era, Strickland's win at +220 as a perplexing longshot against the talented but perhaps overrated prospect Anthony Hernandez (-300) in February, Oliveira (+150) unseating Holloway (-190) for the mythical BMF title in March and rugged lightweight veteran Renato Moicano (+135) turning back prospect Chris Duncan (-160) in April.
Of course, the two massive title-fight upsets authored by Gaethje and Strickland provide the five-star cuisine on the 2026 UFC underdog betting menu.
If you plan to wager on UFC 329, find the best offer with the Caesars Sportsbook promo code.
Will the underdog theme continue in the second half of 2026? Time will tell, but we're about to witness another high-profile opportunity next month when iconic former two-division champion Conor McGregor, coming off a five-year layoff and the gruesome leg injury that was the primary cause of the hiatus, takes on Holloway at welterweight in the main event of UFC 329 in Las Vegas on July 11.
When the fight was announced, sportsbooks immediately posted odds on the 34-year-old Holloway -- a former featherweight champion who has never fought at 170 pounds -- as a -550 favorite over the long-dormant 37-year-old McGregor (+350).
Those odds have since shifted drastically in favor of the bombastic but now infamously inactive Irishman, with most outlets now pricing Holloway around -260 and McGregor at +210. We've already offered in this space that we believe McGregor backers are supporting an idealized version of the former two-division champion that no longer exists, and we see incremental value on the late-prime Holloway the cheaper he becomes.
We maintain this stance but, in the Year of the Underdog, McGregor punctuating his long-awaited return with an upset victory would merely feel like another lucrative birdie on this memorable plus-money course.
