Today's MLB story will be two-fold regarding the playing-for-nothing Los Angeles Angels finishing an AL West series in Houston. First off, I believe the home side is in a great position to win, and it darn well better be, as Houston has burned me recently a few times. And second, I have some updated sports betting numbers regarding Astros superstar Yordan Alvarez and his quest for the AL Triple Crown. It's an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch from Daikin Park, the latest start of the night because it's a getaway day and most games are matinees.
Bet $5+ and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you bet on baseball at DraftKings:
Fans who are interested in MLB betting can try it on the best sports betting apps and get bonuses. They can also check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games like Angels vs. Astros from the model's 10,000 simulations, as well as from our experts.
Let's be clear that Alvarez is going to win his first MVP Award, as he is priced at -1400 (was -1200 yesterday at DK), and he would become the third Astros player to win such. Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell won it in 1994, when Houston was in the National League, and future Hall of Famer and current teammate Jose Altuve took the honor in 2017.
What might happen to Alvarez's MVP chances should the Astros finish below .500 (although 80-82 might even be enough to win the weak AL West)? A handful of guys have won league MVP awards playing for losing teams, including Shohei Ohtani as recently as 2023 in the AL with the Angels. He won that because Ohtani shined as a hitter and pitcher and is a total unicorn. But a Triple Crown winner is a unicorn, too. And if Alvarez gets that, it doesn't matter what Houston's final regular-season record looks like.
Place your Angels-Astros wagers and get $1,500 in bonus bets back at BetMGM Sportsbook::
Angels-Astros MLB same-game parlay
- Houston no bat bottom 9
- Under 1.5 first-inning runs
DraftKings SGP price: +132
Entering Thursday, the 35-year-old Alvarez leads the Junior Circuit in batting average (.317; eight points better than No. 2 Chandler Simpson of Tampa Bay), homers (36; one more than No. 2 Junior Caminero of the Rays) and RBI (88; six better than No. 2 Dillon Dingler of Detroit and Pete Alonso of Baltimore).
It's unlikely Alvarez becomes the first player to win the overall Triple Crown when including both leagues since Mickey Mantle in 1956, as he doesn't lead any as of today but is obviously close in all three. The last Triple Crown winner from either league was the Tigers' Miguel Cabrera in 2012, when he led the majors in homers and RBI and was second in batting average despite sitting at .330 â six points behind then-Giants catcher Buster Posey, who now runs San Francisco's front office (and not very well of late).
Even winning the AL version is far from a done deal. A couple of weeks ago, I saw Alvarez priced around -155 for Yes at DraftKings. Now, No is -320 and Yes +250. I'd definitely lean No, but 95% of handle and 85% of tickets at DK on that prop are on Yes as of the most recent update. And at that current price, why not? As a fan, I'd like to see history.
Bet on MLB at DraftKings, where new users get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5+ first wager:
As for tonight, the Halos start struggling righty Grayson Rodriguez (3-6, 7.17 ERA), and simply looking at that ERA and the fact batters are hitting .283 against Rodriguez this season might make you lean toward playing an Alvarez prop here. I won't discourage that, but know that he's 0-for-10 career off Rodriguez with three strikeouts yet is "only" +235 to homer.
Rodriguez once was one of the most touted pitching prospects in the sport, and he showed that in his second season in the majors in 2024 with Baltimore, going 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA. But then major injury hit, surgery followed and he missed all of last year. The Angels got him in an offseason trade for Taylor Ward.
Rodriguez has been solid vs. Houston this season, with a 3.48 ERA in 10.1 innings but without a decision. However, he enters winless in six, and Los Angeles lost all six. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 5.0 innings, 4.7 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 2.6 earned runs.
Houston is in the midst of a nine-game homestand against the bottom three of the AL West (Mariners and Athletics also), and this was a great chance to separate from Texas for the division lead. The lineup has gone a bit quiet lately, although it did enough Wednesday night in a 3-2 win to snap a three-game skid.
Bet on MLB and more at FanDuel, where bettors can get up to $1,000 in Bet Reset Tokens:
Easily the biggest surprise in the Houston rotation this season starts tonight in righty Peter Lambert (8-6, 3.11 ERA). He leads the team in wins, innings pitched and strikeouts all while making "only" $1.5 million this year. You would be up $583 if you wagered $100 on each of Lambert's starts for Houston to win (13-8 in his).
Lambert, a former Rockies castoff who spent last year in Japan and was not good, has surrendered two runs or fewer in eight straight but hasn't earned a victory since July 11 because of little run support (4.43 runs of support per nine). Lambert already has shattered his previous MLB high in innings pitched, so that could be why the team hasn't allowed him go to past 5.2 innings in the past four.
The 29-year-old hasn't gotten a decision in two starts vs. the Angels, posting a 3.18 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. Both were in Anaheim. The model his him at 5.2 innings, 5.7 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs.
A series finale like this against a bad team and struggling pitcher is simply a game that can't be lost by a playoff contender. The model has Houston by a full run. I am more than OK with just Astros not bat B9 at -135 solo but also enjoy that first-inning rush to get a parlay leg in. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
