Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Padres starter against Reds

A key three-game series between a pair of potential playoff teams in the American League begins Tuesday as the New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers. The Yankees (80-63) sit atop the wild card standings but have their sights set on a second straight division title and third in four years as they trail the first-place Toronto Blue Jays by two games in the AL East.

Detroit (82-62) is closing in on its first AL Central crown since 2014 as it enters the series with an 8.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians. The Tigers have struggled of late, losing nine of their last 13 contests, but took two of three at home earlier this season from the Yankees, who have won 11 of their past 14 games.

Will Warren (8-6, 4.28 ERA) takes the mound for New York in search of his third win in four decisions. The 26-year-old right-hander did not factor in the decision against the Houston Astros in his last start but registered four strikeouts over five innings, his highest total in four outings.

The Tigers counter with Casey Mize (13-5, 3.87), who has lost just once in his last seven turns. The 28-year-old righty posted his first victory in three career starts against the Yankees in April, allowing one run while registering six strikeouts across six frames.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Warren at 5.5 (Over +110, Under -143) and Mize (Over -130, Under -101) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Mize's Over 4.5 strikeouts prop as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Warren's Under 5.5 as a 3-star play.

However, the model has found better value on Tuesday's 15-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 5 stars and another at 4.5 stars that returns plus money. Here they are:

Luis Garcia Over 3.5 strikeouts (-151) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts

Garcia is making just his second start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The 28-year-old Venezuelan right-hander was solid in his season debut on Sept. 1, notching the victory against the Los Angeles Angels after allowing three runs over six innings. Garcia registered six strikeouts in the triumph, marking the fourth consecutive outing in which he fanned at least six batters dating back to before his elbow injury. One of those appearances was against the Blue Jays, a seven-inning effort in which he matched his career high with nine strikeouts. He has enjoyed success against Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is 1-for-11 with five strikeouts lifetime facing Garcia. 

Michael King Over 4.5 strikeouts (-160) vs. Reds (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.1 strikeouts

King last faced the Reds in May 2024, when he recorded six strikeouts across 6 2/3 innings. He is expected to be activated from the injured list before the game, and has gone Over his projected strikeout total in seven of the last 10 home games in which he is favored. He averaged 7.3 strikeouts per game over those 10 contests. The 30-year-old righty struck out eight batters in back-to-back outings prior to exiting his Aug. 9 start against the Red Sox due to shoulder issues.

Zack Littell Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts

Littell finished with just one strikeout over five innings in his start against the Padres while with the Tampa Bay Rays in April. The 29-year-old righty fanned four or more batters in 11 of his next 16 turns with Tampa Bay, however, and has done so in three of his six outings with the Reds. Littell lasted only 4 1/3 innings versus Toronto last time out but racked up six strikeouts. He has struck out 14 over 14 2/3 frames in three road starts for Cincinnati, so it's conceivable he'll go Over his projected total for this outing if he works at least four innings.