Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Blue Jays starter against Pirates
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday's 14-game schedule
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs play the fourth game of their key five-game series when the National League Central rivals square off on Wednesday at Wrigley Field. After losing the first game of the series, 7-0, the Cubs have won the last two, 6-4 and 4-1. The Brewers (79-47) still own the best record in baseball and lead the division by seven games over the Cubs.
Wednesday's pitching matchup pits 23-year-old Milwaukee phenom Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 3.89 ERA) against Chicago righty Colin Rea (9-5, 3.99). Over his last five outings, Misiorowski is 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA. Meanwhile, in three starts in August, Rea is 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA.
Top sportsbooks have set Misiorowski's total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5 and Rea's at 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Rea Over 3.5 and Misiorowski Over 5.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Wednesday's schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars.
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Pirates (12:35 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
This is a reasonable total for the veteran Blue Jays righty. Bassitt (11-6, 4.22) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 16 of 25 starts this season. The SportsLine Projection Model also notes that he has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts market in five of his last eight games when he is favored and playing a team with a losing record, averaging 4.8 pitcher strikeouts per game. On Wednesday he will go up against a Pittsburgh club that averages 8.65 strikeouts per game, the eighth highest total in the majors.
Martín Pérez Over 2.5 strikeouts vs. Braves (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts
This is the SportsLine Projection Model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. The White Sox lefty (1-2, 3.09) makes his first start—and second appearance—since returning from a flexor strain injury, which landed him on the 60-day IL. Seven days ago he struck out four despite pitching just 3⅓ innings. In his four starts before the injury, he went Over 2.5 strikeouts three times. On Wednesday he faces an Atlanta club that averages 8.66 strikeouts per game, the seventh most in all of baseball.
Landen Roupp Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
The 26-year-old San Francisco righty already has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of 21 starts this season. That includes two starts against the Padres in which Roupp (7-6, 3.45 ERA) has struck out four and five batters. The SportsLine Projection Model also notes that he has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts line in four of his last five games.
