Football is back, baby! Now, granted, it's a Wednesday and it feels weird to have the NFL season start on a Wednesday, but we've been without actual NFL football long enough that we can deal with the season starting a day early just so the league can spread its wings into Australia and force-feed us a second kickoff game that takes place in the future (the Rams and 49ers will play on Friday and most of us will watch on Thursday. Heavy stuff, Doc).
And we get a banger of a kickoff, too, with a rematch of the Super Bowl, where the Patriots and Drake Maye were dismantled by the Seahawks' defense. Hopefully, the game is much better this time around.
We do have a low total in this one with two defensive-minded coaches, so let's not get crazy with touchdown parlay bets. But there's plenty of NFL betting meat on the bone for the first game of the year. Let's get to some picks.
Patriots vs. Seahawks best bets
Seahawks -3
There's no doubt the Patriots will be motivated to show last year wasn't a fluke and to get revenge on Seattle for embarrassing them in the final game of the season. But the Seahawks should be plenty motivated too; when's the last time you saw a team win a Super Bowl and get as little love as the Seahawks did this offseason.
Mike MacDonald's defense should only be better and despite losing Kenneth Walker to free agency, Seattle's run game should be stout with Jadarian Price stepping in. What the offense specifically looks like sans Klint Kubiak is a major storyline for the entire season, but I'm not worried about the Seahawks finding their way to enough points to cover the three and letting the defense do most of the work en route to taking out the Patriots again.
Patriots vs. Seahawks player props
Interested in prop betting? Here are three of my favorite player props for this matchup, including picks for each of the starting quarterbacks.
DeMario Douglas 20+ receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
Douglas cleared this number in 10 games last year, including the playoffs, and produced a seven-target, five-catch game for 45 yards against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. We're basically asking for three catches (although we could get there with two potentially) against a defense that will be heavily shifting its attention to A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, leaving Douglas as a nice safety valve for Maye when Seattle dials up the pressure.
Drake Maye 200 pass yards/Sam Darnold 200 pass yards (-115, DraftKings)
I don't believe this game will be a shootout, but I do think it will be closer than the Super Bowl and both of these quarterbacks will throw enough to clear the measly number of 200 yards. By comparison, the two to combine for 400 yards is -375 on DraftKings. Maye and Darnold's respective pass attempt Over/Under betting lines are 33 and 31, so they'd need just 6.5 yards per attempt to clear 200. We're asking the bare minimum here.
Romeo Doubs 4+ receptions (+108, DraftKings)
The less-heralded addition for the Pats at wideout this offseason, Doubs is being priced because he's averaged just over three receptions a game for the Packers the last four years. But he did that because he was constantly in a rotation with a slew of other receivers. I'd expect a lot more usage this week out of the gate in Josh McDaniels' offense. If the Seahawks get a lead, we could see Maye pepper Doubs, so I don't hate a mini-ladder up to six catches if you're so inclined.
Patriots vs. Seahawks anytime touchdown scorer picks
Who will find the end zone in this Super Bowl rematch? I've got my eyes on one pass catcher for each team, one of whom is a big name and the other is more of a longshot play.
A.J. Brown (+165, DraftKings)
The Patriots took a big swing this offseason to acquire Brown and provide Maye with a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. Vrabel has a long history with Brown, and given the wide receiver's penchant for being -- ahem -- emotional, I would be shocked if the Pats didn't try and get him in the end zone in his first game. This +165 price point is solid for a guy who can win contested catches in the red zone, is explosive down the field and is a YAC monster with the ball in his hands.
Elijah Arroyo (+700, DraftKings)
The second tight end for Seattle feels a little mispriced here. Given the Seahawks' changes in the run game personnel-wise, I wouldn't be shocked to see Darnold throw a little more down by the goal line in this game. The Seahawks should use plenty of two-tight end sets, and Arroyo will go largely unnoticed down by the goal line. I wouldn't be shocked to see him slip out off a play action bootleg look and find paydirt early in this game. His first touchdown scorer price (+3500 on DK) is absolutely worth a sprinkle as well.
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