NFL Week 9 totals: Packers vs. Panthers, Cowboys vs. Cardinals among best Over/Under bets
Which totals look like the best plays for Week 9 of the NFL season?
With Week 9 of the NFL season about to begin, Overs (64) have started to become noticeably more common than Unders (54). While that's good information to keep in mind when making NFL picks at the top sportsbooks, it doesn't mean you should automatically take the Over for every game. Injury reports, weather reports and overall team performance trends are your friends. So is the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. Below, we've highlighted three NFL totals picks from the model for Week 9.
If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide, as well as our over/under betting explainer.
Broncos at Texans Under 39.5
You couldn't cook up a better Under game in a lab without putting Nathan Peterman at quarterback for both teams. The Texans have the NFL's best defense and an offense that can be hit-and-miss, while the Broncos have the fifth-best defense, both by yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. Patrick Surtain is hurt, which will obviously impact the Denver defense, but Houston doesn't feature much of a passing game outside of Nico Collins -- who himself is listed as questionable. This is obviously a very small number, but the Under is hitting in 58% of the model's simulations.
Panthers at Packers Over 44.5
The Packers are fifth in the league in points per game and just dropped 35 on the Steelers. Carolina has had a comparable season to Pittsburgh in scoring defense, and the Panthers might get Bryce Young back for this game after he returned to practice on Wednesday. Young isn't exactly a world beater under center, but after Andy Dalton managed just 9 points against Buffalo, any upgrade is good news for our purposes. The Over is hitting in 66% of the model's simulations.
Cardinals at Cowboys Over 53.5
Kyler Murray is trending towards playing on Monday, which will be a welcome addition for the Cardinals as they take on the NFL's second-worst defense. Dallas is an Over machine, and while this is a bit of a chunky number, it's hard to imagine the Under hitting if Murray plays -- particularly with the Cowboys playing at home. It's hitting in 55% of the model's simulations, but that's with the total pegged at 54, meaning pushes are baked in. FanDuel has it a half point lower, meaning it can't push. The number may only go up if Murray is confirmed to go, so this is a number to jump on now if the game intrigues you.
