Successfully predicting an upset is what NFL bettors dream of, and there were two notable such games last week -- the Baltimore Ravens defeating the Atlanta Falcons with their backup quarterback and the Buffalo Bills beating the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. But which underdogs could cash for bettors in Week 6? Bet on the NFL and more at FanDuel, where new users can get up to $350 in bonus bets:
We've fired up the SportsLine Projection Model to break down Sunday's NFL games. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season on a 57-46 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. Bet the NFL at BetMGM and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
Best underdogs for NFL Week 6
- Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Chicago Bears
- New York Giants -105 vs. New Orleans Saints
- Arizona Cardinals +12.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Falcons vs. Bears: Falcons +3
It remains to be seen how this line will move if Michael Penix Jr. is deemed healthy enough to play. The Falcons quarterback was knocked out of the overtime loss to the Ravens after taking a nasty hit to the ribs. Penix told reporters that he wants to play against Chicago, which is a good sign, and this is a sound bet if the line has that expectation built in. It's also worth noting that Bears defensive end Montez Sweat has been suspended for two games, alleviating some pressure on Penix and on Bijan Robinson's ability to eat up yardage. The Falcons cover in 55% of the SportsLine model's simulations.
Giants vs. Saints: Giants -105
The 3-1-1 Giants are 1.5-point home underdogs against New Orleans 1-4. New York owning first place in the NFC East isn't an overwhelming sign of prestige given the dearth of quality in the division, to be clear, and the Giants aren't the scariest team in the world with the likes of Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns sidelined. But home field still counts for something, and are the Saints really that much better than the Giants? The SportsLine model doesn't think so. New York wins in 61% of the model's outcomes.
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Cardinals vs. Rams: Cardinals +12.5
Don't look now, but the Rams are under .500. Los Angeles has played a tough schedule thus far and has lost to three respectable teams in the 49ers, Broncos and Bills. But there's something amiss at SoFi and cutting the kicker is probably not going to fix all the issues. The 1-4 Cardinals aren't exactly amazing and there's a very real scenario where this Arizona defense gets eaten alive by a Los Angeles offense that now has a healthy Puka Nacua to play with. But the Rams aren't immune to the sort of silly mistakes that sub-.500 teams make, and that could lead to a score that keeps Arizona within two touchdowns. The Cardinals cover in 56% of the model's simulations.
