NFL Week 2 Inside the Lines Top 50+ RB Prop Cheat Sheet: Back Breece Hall, fade Ashton Jeanty

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As anyone who bets knows (or should know), lines are highly fluid and it is very likely that by the time you read this, the odds presented here will have changed. If the lines have moved in your favor, then good for you. If they moved toward our recommended side, then it's just a reminder to keep up with our latest picks at the blog.

Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions (Was +100 at BetMGM, now -110)

I'm going to take Jerry Jones at his word when he says rookie Jaydon Blue isn't ready to play a big role yet. I'm going to keep this simple. It's plus money on a line that's less than both Williams' career average of 2.9 and our projection of just over 2.5 receptions. His average would be higher but his totally ineffective rushing in '24 on the Broncos resulted in him playing fewer snaps and he only averaged 2.0 receptions.

He definitely looked better running the ball in Week 1, Blue, like I said may not be ready to play significant snaps and Miles Sanders had a really costly fumble vs the Eagles. Williams has gone Over 19-15 for this prop when he has at least 11 carries, so when he is the primary back, he hits this plus money bet over 50% of the time.

David Montgomery Over 10.5 rush attempts (-130 FanDuel, BetMGM)

Before the season started, I thought Jahmyr Gibbs would get more carries per game than Montgomery, but in Week 1 Montgomery outrushed him 11 to 9. While I like Jared Goff and the passing game to have success and help build a big lead vs. Chicago in the first 2.5 quarters, we should hopefully see Montgomery feast in the last quarter and a half.

This line was -110 at BetMGM when it opened so you'll want to move quickly on this.

He averaged 12.7 per game last season and that's what the model projects. He has gone Over 10.5 carries in 12 of his last 17 games and in nearly 80% of games in his career. He may be nearing the end of his career and finish the season with under 180 total carries, but expect him to have 12+ at least to start the season.

Breece Hall Over 80.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 Fanatics)

I loved what I saw from Breece Hall in Week 1. He benefited from the defensive "gravity" that Justin Fields, as a running threat, provides while also keeping the workhorse RB role (19 rushes) over Braelon Allen (six rushes). Allen ran for a TD so maybe he gets the lion's share of goal line carries, which is why Hall ATD isn't as good a bet in my opinion. 

With a career 92 rushing + receiving yard average (22-19 over 78.5) and a projection for 90 here, there is 11 yards of wiggle room. Hall started slowly in his second season recovering from a season-ending injury his rookie season, but when he regained his form, he had three straight of at least 90 yards. He then had another rough stretch with six of seven Unders, but then he ripped off 12 Overs in 14 games from the end of '23 to midway through 2024. With his 145 yards in Week 1, I think he's in one of his high production grooves.

Zach Charbonnet Over 9.5 receiving yards (-118 BetMGM)

Many expected Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker would split RB snaps in Klint Kubiak's offense. Charbonnet had 12 rushes for 47 yards and a TD. Walker had just 10 rushes for 20 yards. The good thing for this week is Charbonnet didn't have any receptions, so we're getting a really low line.

He had at least 10 receiving yards in 14 of 17 games last season and averaged more receiving yards on the road (19) than at home (13) in his career. 

Ashton Jeanty Under 91.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Raiders anemic rushing attack a year ago was supposed to be fixed by Jeanty and Geno Smith at QB. But they did not radically improve the team's offensive line run blocking. The Raiders averaged just 80 rushing yards per game last season, and we estimate that a workhorse RB like Jeanty may only get 75% of team rushing yards. So a line of 92.5 projects to 120 rushing yards as a team, and this team is not 50% better on the ground with just Jeanty and Geno.

Jeanty's dominance in college came from his ability to break tackles and have defenders bounce off him. That simply does not happen at the NFL level unless you are Derrick Henry. He did have 19 rush attempts (just 38 yards) in Week 1 so oddsmakers will likely set him at 17.5 to 18.5 carries and I think he'll need to average more than 5 yards per carry to go Over.

In his final season at Boise State, Jeanty averaged 7.0 YPC, but he capitalized on defenses who underrated him. He averaged 13.4, 7.7 (vs Oregon), 11.5, 10.0, and 14.3 YPC in his first five games. But once the word was out about the need to really wrap him up to bring him down, his averages were much lower with 7.0, 3.9, 4.8, 6.1, 5.0, 8.9, 6.1, 6.5, and 3.5 vs the best defense he faced, Penn State, during the College Football Playoff.

Other Model Values

These are our latest Week 2 projections in comparison to the betting lines at the time we published. When there is projection value,  we list the full bet and the sportsbook with the best line. You can use this to see if the model agrees with your personal best bets. The table below was updated on Friday September 12.

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