NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Ravens vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football from proven model

A third consecutive AFC North title seemed unattainable for the Baltimore Ravens just a few weeks ago. By the time Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season concludes, the possibility of achieving that goal could be very real.

Baltimore won its fifth division title in seven seasons in 2024 but lost five of its first six games this year and were without quarterback Lamar Jackson for several weeks due to a hamstring injury, leaving its chances for another crown in peril. After using their bye in Week 7 to regroup, things began to take a positive turn for the Ravens as they cooled off the red-hot Chicago Bears last Sunday with third-stringer Tyler Huntley under center.

Later that evening, the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers suffered their second straight loss, falling 35-25 to the Green Bay Packers. The Steelers dropped to 4-3 with that setback and now have the unenviable task of trying to solve the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts in Week 9.

The Ravens are expected to have Jackson back in the lineup for their Week 9 matchup against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. Miami (2-6) is coming off a 34-10 triumph over the Atlanta Falcons but has dug itself a deep hole from which it is unlikely to get out of.

The return of two-time NFL MVP Jackson, coupled with the low level of difficulty of Baltimore's remaining schedule have many believing the team once again will finish atop the AFC North. Major sportsbooks all have the 2-5 Ravens as the favorites to capture the crown even before Week 9 begins, with the price down from -120 to -130.

SportsLine's Inside the Lines team won't go that far, but it does like Baltimore's prospects much more with a victory on Thursday. The ITL team's projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says the Ravens' chances for the division title will be 11% better with a win than a loss to the Dolphins, who basically have no hope for their first AFC East title since 2008 no matter the outcome.

Beginning with their meeting with Miami on Thursday Night Football, the Ravens have five consecutive games against teams with losing records before their first showdown of the season with the Steelers in Week 14. Two of those five matchups are with their other two division rivals, and victories over Cleveland and Cincinnati - which they also face in Week 15 - would further strengthen their chances of finishing atop the AFC North.

Wins obviously also would improve Baltimore's outlook for a playoff berth, much more so than Miami's. According to the model, a triumph over the Dolphins would make the Ravens' postseason chances almost 15% better than a loss would. Much like with the AFC East title, Miami's hopes for a playoff berth are almost non-existent.

Baltimore has split its four matchups against Miami with Jackson at quarterback, and the four-time Pro Bowler came up with some amazing performances. Jackson threw for over 300 yards in three of those contests and made five touchdown passes in each victory. The loss in which he eclipsed the 300-yard mark, which occurred in 2022, also saw him throw for three TDs and run for 119 yards and a score.

Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdown passes for the Dolphins in last week's triumph over Atlanta and had an epic outing in the team's 42-38 victory against Baltimore in 2022. The signal-caller set career highs of 469 passing yards and six TD tosses in that contest, and Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is hoping for an effort close to that on Thursday night. Baltimore is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is leaning toward a cover by the Ravens as it projects them to post a 35-26 victory.