NFL predictions: How Chargers vs. Vikings Week 8 Thursday Night Football impacts Los Angeles' playoff hopes
According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, no team faces a bigger swing game in Week 8 than the Chargers
Just one month ago, the Los Angeles Chargers were a popular pick to win the AFC.
They were a perfect 3-0, having already knocked off the three-time defending AFC champion Kansas City in the season opener. They held a two-game lead in the AFC West and their defense had allowed just 50 points, the fourth fewest in the NFL up to that point.
SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model gave the Chargers a 64.7% chance to win the division, a 90.9% chance to make the playoffs and a 9.4% chance to reach the Super Bowl.
But the last month has been unkind to Los Angeles. Jim Harbaugh & Co. have lost three of their last four games, including a defeat to the previously winless Giants. The Chargers' only victory over that time was a two-point win over the hapless Dolphins. Los Angeles' once-stout defense went from allowing 16.7 points a game over the first three games to 28.3 over the last four.
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And now, as the Chargers (4-3) enter Week 8, their Thursday Night Football contest against the Minnesota Vikings (3-3) carries more weight than it looked like it was going to carry a month ago. After its losing streak, Los Angeles now is one game behind the Broncos (5-2) in the AFC West, and its chances to make the playoffs, win the AFC and Super Bowl have all dropped considerably since Week 3.
| Chargers' chance to ... | Through Week 3 | Today |
| Make playoffs | 90.9% | 56.4% |
| Win division | 64.7% | 11.9% |
| Win AFC | 9.4% | 3.8% |
| Win Super Bowl | 4.0% | 1.6% |
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, the Chargers will be playing in the biggest swing game of Week 8. They enter the week with a 56.4% chance to make the playoffs. If they beat Minnesota, that probability increases to 65.2%. But if they were to lose, that number crashes to 44.8%.
That hypothetical 20.4% drop is the biggest of any NFL team this week.
| Team | Chance to make playoffs with Week 8 win | Chance to make playoffs with Week 8 loss | Differential |
| Chargers | 65.2% | 44.8% | 20.4% |
| Cowboys | 41.0% | 20.9% | 20.1% |
| 49ers | 74.5% | 54.5% | 20.0% |
| Patriots | 86.3% | 67.3% | 19.0% |
| Bears | 56.7% | 38.0% | 18.7% |
Los Angeles' struggles have coincided with quarterback Justin Herbert's struggles. Through the first three games he had a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a passer rating of 105.5. Over the last four games, he has a 7-to-5 ratio with a rating of 87.3.
The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings.
Minnesota has a lot riding on this game as well. The NFC North is arguably the deepest division in the league and the Vikings occupy the basement, two games behind the division-leading Packers (4-1-1) in the loss column. Of Minnesota's 11 remaining games, seven are against teams that are currently above .500. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, that's the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league, so there is urgency for the team to capitalize on winnable games.
Quarterback Carson Wentz is set to start once again for the Vikings, who could get J.J. McCarthy back soon from an ankle injury. Wentz is 7-0 in his career on Thursday night, which is the most wins without a loss by any quarterback since 2000. However, he is coming off his worst game of the season, throwing two interceptions in a 28-22 loss to the Eagles.
