NFL playoff odds: Why the Lions are back in the hunt in the NFC after win over Ravens on MNF in Week 3

A series of recent events have led critics and fans alike to believe the Detroit Lions' tenure as a powerhouse in the NFC was over. Head coach Dan Campbell and his squad made a strong statement on Monday Night Football in Week 3, suggesting everyone pump the brakes on that thought.

The Lions set a franchise record with 15 wins last season but made an early exit in the postseason, losing 45-31 to the Washington Commanders in the divisional round. They lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coach positions during the offseason, as OC Ben Johnson accepted the job with the Chicago Bears while DC Aaron Glenn took the helm with the New York Jets.

With John Morton assuming OC duties and Kelvin Sheppard in place as the team's new DC, Detroit kicked off the 2025 NFL season with a disappointing 27-13 loss to a divisional adversary in the Green Bay Packers. The Lions were held without a touchdown in that contest until the final minute of the fourth quarter, prompting many to think their run as an offensive juggernaut was over with Johnson gone.

However, Morton's offense has squashed that theory in a hurry. Detroit bounced back from the Week 1 loss by demolishing Johnson's Bears 52-21 and followed with a 38-30 triumph over Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on MNF. The 90 combined points are the most the Lions have produced in a two-game span since 1962.

Monday's victory, in particular, has swayed a large amount of people's opinion on the Lions, who outgained the Ravens 426-318 in total yards and 224-85 on the ground. They allowed Jackson to throw for 288 yards and three scores but sacked him seven times, matching the highest amount of sacks the two-time NFL MVP has sustained in his career, as the Pittsburgh Steelers recorded seven against him in Week 13 of the 2021 season.

SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model certainly view Detroit differently after witnessing its performance against Baltimore. The ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has the Lions' chances of success increasing across the board in its simulations as a result of the win.

The model still sees Green Bay winning the NFC North (47.4%), but Detroit closed the gap considerably. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (97.3%), Philadelphia Eagles (95.3%) and Packers (85.5%) have a better chance of making the playoffs than Detroit.

According to the ITL team's model, Philadelphia (28.8%) and Green Bay (18.0%) are the only clubs that represent the NFL in the Super Bowl LX next February in more simulations than the Lions. It also says just four teams have a stronger chance to win the championship than the Lions, who capture the Lombardi Trophy 9.1% of the time.

The Lions return home to face Cleveland (1-2) in Week 4 in what seemingly should be a victory, even though the Browns are coming off a shocking 13-10 comeback triumph over the Packers in which they trailed by 10 points after three quarters. Detroit is a 9-point favorite in the latest consensus NFL odds, and the ITL team's model says the outlook for the team's postseason chances would increase minimally with a win but drop considerably with a loss.

Detroit won four straight and seven of eight meetings with Cleveland before dropping a 13-10 decision on the road when the teams last met in Week 11 of the 2021 season. It would behoove the Browns to pay close attention this time to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who made four catches for only 18 yards as a rookie in that matchup.

Like the rest of the Lions' offense, St. Brown got off to slow start this year as he finished with 45 yards on four receptions in the opener against Green Bay. But the three-time Pro Bowler hauled in three of Jared Goff's five touchdown passes in the rout of Chicago and also scored a touchdown against Baltimore in Week 3 to grab a share of the league lead in receiving scores.