NFL picks: Colston Loveland prop among SportsLine expert's best bets for Week 12

There are plenty of noteworthy matchups in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season including the Indianapolis Colts battling the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but one of the most interesting storylines comes from Chicago where Aaron Rodgers tries to showcase his dominance over the Bears once again. This time, Rodgers will attempt to do so as a member of the Steelers and is officially questionable due to a wrist injury. On the flip side, first-year head coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams have Chicago at 7-3 and in first place in the NFC North. The Bears are 2.5-point favorites at top sportsbooks, and the total is set at 46.5.

While bettors will be looking at NFL player props for Rodgers (if he does suit up) and Williams, SportsLine expert PropBetGuy is targeting a rookie from this contest for one of his top prop picks for Week 12. Before you lock in your player prop wagers for Sunday's slate, be sure to check out what PropBetGuy has to say. He's 6-0 (+600) in his last six NFL player prop picks and here are his plays for Week 12.

Keaton Mitchell Over 19.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Mitchell has cleared rushing yards this line in three of his last four games. He's proven to be an explosive complement to Derrick Henry in the Ravens rushing attack, and has carved out a 4-6 carry role for himself on a weekly basis.

The matchup against the Jets not only pits him against a below average run defense (19th in EPA per rush attempt), but also serves as a possibility for gamescript to play in our favor. The Ravens are almost two-touchdown favorites and it's a good bet they'll be in favorable running situations for most, if not all, of the game.

I'd bet this up to over 21.5 yards.

Colston Loveland Over 24.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel)

Despite his fellow tight end Cole Kmet seeing a full complement of snaps last week, Loveland was on the field for 61% of pass plays. Olamide Zaccheus took a back seat, which benefited Luther Burden but also Loveland, as the Bears ran even more two tight end sets.

The result was Loveland registering 40 receiving yards on three catches (four targets). Overall, Loveland has cleared this line in each of his last four games.

The rookie tight-end gets a plus matchup against the Steelers who allow both the sixth most targets and yards to the position. I'd bet this line up to over 27.5 receiving yards.

Greg Dortch longest reception Under 14.5 yards (-110, Caesars)

Despite Dortch being thrust into an elevated role, this long reception line reads as too high for the receiver. His average depth of target is 0.7 yards and even though he did see some deeper throws in garbage time last week, I'm expecting a more muted role against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville has defended the slot at a high level, ranking top seven in slot receiving yards allowed per game, yards per route run, yards per target and catch rate per Fantasy Points Data.

In fact, the Jags have only allowed five catches to receivers in the slot for more than 15 yards all season. Dortch, who ran 79% of his routes out of the slot last week, should be kept in check today.

I'd bet this line up to -130.