Although the 2026 NFL draft was widely considered somewhat marginal for offensive playmakers who could make an immediate impact, analysts were generally more bullish on top-rated defensive prospects. Even so, the elite defensive prospects were in an exclusive tier, and most of the blue-chippers went in the top 15 overall picks.
The Arizona Cardinals, who ranked in the bottom five in nearly every defensive category last year, chose former Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at No. 3 overall. The somewhat surprising selection threw countless mock drafts -- and perhaps the real one -- out of their projected order. As such, many defensive players ended up in somewhat unexpected destinations, making for some interesting prices in the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the current favorite is David Bailey (+525), the former Texas Tech edge rusher selected by the Jets at No. 2 overall. Bailey was taken ahead of presumptive front-runner for the No. 2 spot, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese (+750), who fell to the New York Giants at No. 5 overall. In a move that caught most draft analysts off guard, the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to No. 6 overall to select LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane (+850). Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders selected Reese's Ohio State teammate, linebacker Sonny Styles (+800) at No. 7 overall.
Ohio State safety Caleb Downs (+750), who was widely considered a top-six prospect, instead became the last of three Buckeyes defenders to go in the first round. He fell to No. 11 overall, with the Dallas Cowboys swapping picks with the Miami Dolphins in a trade to move up and grab him. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were almost universally credited with getting a steal at No. 15 overall in University of Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. (+550), who is the second favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Defensive Rookie of the Year pick: Caleb Downs (+750)
Last week in this space, we took a look at the odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year and made a value-based selection on the equation of talent meeting the best opportunity. We're going to follow that formula with Defensive Rookie of the Year and back Downs at +750.
Given all of the Dolphins' needs during a rebuild, it was a bit surprising they passed on a prospect who has the potential to be a defensive cornerstone for the next decade. In allowing Dallas to move up, Miami added a couple of picks in a draft in which they already held 11 selections. They used the 12th overall pick on polarizing offensive line prospect Kadyn Proctor of Alabama.
The Cowboys ranked dead last in scoring defense at 30.1 points per game last year. Their mid-season trade for tackle Quinnen Williams helped a bit but wasn't enough to get them over the top in their late playoff chase. The unit remains bereft of difference-makers following the much-criticized trade of linebacker Micah Parsons, who was shipped to the Green Bay Packers amid a contract holdout last August.
The ball-hawking Downs is an instinctive playmaker and natural leader who should immediately fill the biggest defensive need for the Cowboys, who are expected to compete for the NFC East title. Dallas is priced at +190 behind the favored Philadelphia Eagles (+140). We expect Downs to be a Day 1 starter and playmaker for a club whose high profile only enhances his potential for recognition. The Cowboys made the right move at a massive value, and we believe Downs should emerge as a front-runner for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
