NFC South best bets 2025: Model backing Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, new-look Saints go over win total
Mackenzie Brooks and the Inside the Lines Team break down where every NFC South team's season is most likely to end and how to make smart futures bets
The NFC South has been dominated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the last few years, winning the division four years in a row. Will 2025 be the team's fifth straight title? The Atlanta Falcons enter the year with some buzz after falling just short of a division crown a year ago and this will be the first full year of Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Bryce Young appeared to figure it out late last year and the Carolina Panthers ended 2024 on a high note. As for the New Orleans Saints, they have a new head coach in Kellen Moore as well as a rookie quarterback in Tyler Shough, making them an intriguing team to follow. For all of my daily best bets, go to the Inside the Lines blog.
Tampa Bay's top-rated offense should be better in 2025
Tampa Bay finished 2025 third in total yards, third in passing yards, fourth in rushing yards and third in points scored. The Bucs' offense was elite despite Chris Godwin's early season-ending injury and Bucky Irving not having over 10 carries until mid-October and only having two double-digit carry games in his first nine games.
| OUTCOME | TAMPA BAY | ATLANTA | CAROLINA | NEW ORLEANS |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +115, 46.5% | 19.7% | -165, 62.3% | 67% | -300, 75% | 97.1% | -1050, 91.3% | 75.9% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +260, 27.8% | 31.4% | +310, 24.4% | 19.6% | +480, 17.2% | 2.2% | +1200, 7.7% | 18.3% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +430, 18.9% | 26.1% | +650, 13.3% | 9.1% | +1100, 8.3% | 0.6% | +3200, 3% | 4.8% |
| LOSE NFC CHAMP | +1000, 9.1% | 13% | +1800, 5.3% | 2.9% | +3100, 3.1% | 0.1% | +12000, 0.8% | 0.9% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +2200, 4.3% | 5.7% | +4700, 2.1% | 0.9% | +7500, 1.3% | 0% | +31000, 0.3% | 0.1% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +2900, 3.3% | 4.1% | +6500, 1.5% | 0.5% | +12000, 0.8% | 0% | +50000, 0.2% | 0% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Bold Indicates Model Betting Value | ||||
The returning production (usually something I say referring to college teams) combined with a healthy Godwin, first-round WR in Emeka Ogbuka and Irving as the team's clear RB1 has me thinking the Buccaneers can average even more points per game in 2025. Mike Evans is getting up there in age, but he isn't getting any shorter and his hands aren't getting worse anytime soon.
The model has positive value in all of the good categories above. I am highest on the +430, 18.9% bet that they get to (but lose) in the Divisional round at FanDuel. The model has that at 26%. Bet this at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets:
I am a believer in Michael Penix Jr., but I obviously have more faith in Tampa Bay's high floor and even higher ceiling. People are hoping Penix can unlock Kyle Pitts, and maybe he can if Pitts is a wide receiver. Penix didn't have a ton of touchdown or overall production with tight ends in his biggest passing seasons at both Washington and Indiana despite playing with tight ends who made the NFL. FanDuel has the best price to Miss the Playoffs at -164, and the sim has that at nearly 82%.
If Atlanta loses in Week 1 at home to Tampa Bay as we predict (66% chance of losing), the team's playoff chances drop to just 12%.
Bryce Young looked like an NFL player in his last three games with over a 200-yards per game average, seven passing TDs, three rushing and no turnovers, but the competition was not tough and defenses may not have been "amped up" in December vs. Carolina. It seems like people were impressed by Young's last three games, which I think were nothing compared to what rookie Bo Nix did in Weeks 16-18 (nearly 800 passing yards, nine pass TDs, one pick).
If any of the elite QBs put up Young's numbers, people would have wondered what was wrong with them. Carolina also allowed a staggering 35 points per game on the road last year. They were not exactly the 1985 Bears at home, either, allowing 28 per contest. We have a ton of value on the Panthers to Miss the Playoffs because they can improve by +3.5 pts offensively and +3.5 pts defensively and still average a -4 point differential per game, which is where the 5-12 Jets were last season.
DraftKings is offering the best Carolina to Miss the Playoffs line at -290. Bet on the Panthers at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket in addition to $200 in bonus bets:
The Saints are a surprisingly tough team to evaluate. We were high on their win total Over last season and were flying high when they won their first two games by a combined score of 91-29. Then the injuries started piling up. The defense was still pretty good and Alvin Kamara was still a very effective RB.
They have a new widely-respected offensive-minded head coach in Kellen Moore. They have talented weapons. They drafted Tyler Shough early in the second round despite his age. I would think they wouldn't do that unless they thought he could be an effective game manager, even as a rookie. I would think if they didn't think highly of Shough, they would have aimed to tank for Arch Manning in the upcoming draft.
Despite being last in our power rankings they are a still a good bet to win over 4.5 games at -130 on FanDuel. Bet on the Saints at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets:
The model has the Saints as having the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. They only have one game on the road against an elite team (Week 4 at Buffalo). Other than that, they have at least a fighting chance (less than a TD underdog) in seven other games. The Saints have nine games versus teams projected to finish in the bottom-third of the league.
