Two NL Central rivals and playoff hopefuls clash on Tuesday, July 28, with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting theChicago Cubs at 7:45 p.m. ET on TBS. The Cubs are one of the top teams in the National League, entering Tuesday with the top Wild Card spot in the league, while the Cardinals are two games out of the third and final NL Wild Card spot. Chicago took the series opener 7-3 on Wednesday, winning its sixth game in 10 tries and giving the Cardinals their eighth loss in 10 games.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has the Cubs winning in 55% of its simulations and the Under on 9 runs occurring 58% of the time. The model entered Week 19 of the MLB season on a sizzling 39-23 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anyone following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Before locking in your wagers for Cubs vs. Cardinals, you should see what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is betting for Tuesday's game.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who is up 133.4 units dating back to the 2022 MLB season on straight bets, prop betting and parlay betting. Here's a look at his best bets for Cubs vs. Cardinals on Tuesday.
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Cubs vs. Cardinals best bets
- Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-119, DraftKings)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-112, DraftKings)
This week's TBS Tuesday game pits Colin Rea against Michael McGreevy, which isn't the marquee matchup many people are running to the ballpark for. Last night's game provided some fireworks as the Cubs won with ease, and on another hot night in St. Louis, this should be a fun game to watch. Chicago racked up 14 hits Monday against Matthew Liberatore and Hunter Dobbins, as Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner grabbed four hits a piece and the Cardinals bullpen was salvaged with just two pitchers used.
On the surface, McGreevy has pitched well this year despite a 4-8 record, with a 3.07 ERA in 20 starts and a 1.13 WHIP, but as we dive deeper, the expected stats point to him being a regression candidate. It's an expected ERA at 5.46 and a SIERA at 4.52, both suggesting that his success is not something that should continue long term.
Some of that regression movement in his numbers may come in this outing against a Cubs team that had his number in two of three starts last year, with McGreevy failing to complete five innings in both of the appearances where he struggled. He did have a solid six shutout innings against this Cubs lineup in one start last year, but there were a lot of hard-hit balls along the way, and many of those same batters will be in the lineup to see him again tonight.
Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-116)
When McGreevy and Busch squared off late last year, the Cubs slugger proved why he was the superior Michael, going 3-for-3 with two home runs and a double. Busch was 0-for-5 on Monday night but had picked up five hits across his previous two games, with hits in nine of his 11 starts prior to that. He's been on a tear lately, putting up a .286 average in July and reaching base 16 times in 10 games since coming back from the All-Star break, so I like him to bounce back tonight.
The price on Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI is showing some strong value here, and I'm backing Busch to have a solid game while hitting near the top of the order on the away team. He's perfectly positioned in the projected lineup, surrounded by teammates who also have a track record of hitting the ball hard off the Cardinals' starter. Lefties are also hitting nearly .250 with nine home runs and 20 walks off McGreevy thus far, the worse side of the platoon for him, and the side Busch will be hitting from.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
McGreevy has allowed a ton of hard contact to both lefties and righties, but against these Cubs left-handed batters, I'm going to bet the trend continues with some hard-hit balls. Crow-Armstrong weirdly had just one hit off of McGreevy last year, but he hit five of seven batted balls "hard" at 95+ mph exit velocity.
At some point, the trend should break, as aside from a measly single in September of last year, PCA came away with nothing to show for his well-hit baseballs against the Cardinals right hander. With the Cubs center fielder playing at an elite MVP type pace, I would take him against most pitchers, but especially a guy who he's consistently hit the ball hard against and who has been worse to his side of the platoon.
Moreover, PCA will hit atop the Cubs order and should see the most at-bat opportunities in the game. Four of his 10 hits in the second half of the season have gone for extra bases, with two triples and two home runs. I don't even mind taking a shot on the alternate lines here of 3+ and 4+ total bases, where a home run or a couple of extra-base hits would cash a few bets for us.
