nfl-futures-promo-16x9.png

The 2025 NFL season is just around the corner, and we got our first taste of football when the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions met in this week's Hall of Fame Game. We're just over a month out from Week 1, which starts the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Dallas Cowboys, and Mackenzie Brooks has her four top season player props for the 2025 campaign. 

Top 4 NFL Season player props from Mackenzie Brooks

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog

Justin Herbert Over 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110, DraftKings)

Justin Herbert finished the 2024 season on a high note as he was far more productive through the air late in the year as opposed to early in the campaign. After averaging just one passing touchdown per game in his first six starts, Herbert's TD rate jumped 50% to 1.5 per game over his final 11 games. 

Weapons like Ladd McConkey will elevate Herbert's ceiling significantly. And while Greg Roman's offense didn't produce many touchdowns in his first year with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, Roman's first full season as OC saw Jackson lead the league in TD passes, a positive sign for Herbert's outlook in this system. 

Herbert and the Chargers also have a favorable 2024 schedule on paper, with only six games against top-10 pass defenses. Plus, while Quentin Johnston has been seen as a bust due to drops, he still scored eight TDs on just 55 catches last season, highlighting his big-play potential. Herbert has only gone Under 22.5 touchdowns once in his career, and that came in a season when he played just 13 games. With better health, improving weapons and a proven TD ceiling, he's a strong bet to go Over.

Brian Thomas Jr. Over 6.5 receiving touchdowns (-120, DraftKings)

Brian Thomas Jr. could hit this mark before November. As a rookie, he commanded 25% of the Jaguars' receptions, yet accounted for 35% of the receiving yards and a staggering 53% of Jacksonville's receiving touchdowns. With limited depth at receiver and tight end beyond him and Travis Hunter, there's a strong chance BTJ's target share climbs above 30%.

Even if Hunter takes a significant chunk of the volume, his presence will actually benefit Thomas by pulling defensive attention away, making Thomas even more efficient per catch. Thomas profiles as the rare receiver who can win with both volume (possibly nearing 100 receptions) and explosive scoring ability, similar to how players like Rashod Bateman and Quentin Johnston succeed in open field matchups. Given his red zone dominance and playmaking upside, Thomas is built to exceed the 6.5 TD line.

Kyler Murray Over 475 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)

Kyler Murray is primed to hit this total this season as long as he stays healthy. In the three seasons where he played at least 16 games, he cleared this mark easily with 544, 819 and 572 rushing yards. His lower rushing totals in other years (423, 418, and 244) were entirely tied to missed games. 

Murray posted a career-high 7.3 yards per carry last season, showing he's still an elite, explosive runner despite past injuries. His full-season Model projection includes 583 rushing yards and five rushing TDs, right in line with his historical pace. Plus, he'll face defenses that ranked 19th on average in yards per carry allowed. 

Malik Nabers Over 1,150.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)

Malik Nabers is in a great position to explode in his sophomore season. He already surpassed this mark in just 15 games as a rookie despite catching passes from a revolving door of struggling quarterbacks. Now, even if the Giants' QB room is still in the bottom tier of the league, it's a clear upgrade from last season.

Nabers averaged only 11.0 yards per catch, but what really stands out is his 39.4% share of team receiving yards, which significantly outpaced his 34% share of receptions. That kind of efficiency suggests room for a jump in yardage with even modest improvements in quarterback play. 

The Giants ranked 31st in yards per attempt (6.0), while Pittsburgh with Russell Wilson averaged 7.2. Even if Nabers misses a few games and finishes with just 90 catches, a bump to around 12.8 yards per reception, which is realistic in a more functional offense, would still push him well Over this total.