Inside the Lines Chargers at Raiders props cheat sheet: Sell high on Herbert and Quentin Johnston, fade Jeanty

The Inside the Lines team uses its proven NFL model to identify our best SportsLine player projections versus the best available odds to build our best bets.

By Stephen Oh

& Inside the Lines Team

Sep 12, 2025 at 1:17 pm ET • 6 min read

Inside the Lines team

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. Here, we highlight our favorite prop picks for Monday Night Football between the Chargers and Raiders.

Main Markets: Lean Under 46.5 Points (-108 DraftKings)

The consensus spread has moved slightly from Chargers -2.5 to Chargers -3.5, perhaps based on the concern that even if he plays, Brock Bowers will not be near 100%. The model does not have significant value on any of the main market lines with the Chargers covering 51% of simulations, the game coming Under 58% of the time, and the Chargers winning roughly 60% of the time (-185 consensus).

The 58% Under 46.5 at DraftKings is the best value of the three markets and fits with the "storyline" presented below. This is the third iteration of the Jim Harbaugh versus Pete Carroll matchup that started with Stanford's straight up win as 40 point dogs. USC's high-powered offense only scored 23 that night. Then, the two faced off for years as coaches for the 49ers and Seahawks, often with the two best defenses in the league. That memorable 2013 NFC Championship Game was 23-17, another low-scoring game.

The O/U opened at 43.5 but has steamed up to 46.5. I think the Under, with the assumption that this will be a defensive battle, is the way to go with both teams fairly conservative offensively and not wanting to make a costly mistake or turnover.

Justin Herbert Under 256.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

I see a really nice opportunity to sell high on Justin Herbert. Before Week 1, his line was as low as 224.5. We successfully capitalized on a line that was too low for who he, even in the Greg Roman offense, is as a QB. His 318 yards in Week 1 made everyone think we're seeing Herbert circa 2020-22 again. I think this is an overreaction, especially in light of the defensive battle we are foreseeing.

I think this is classic run the ball, play field position offense. These are old-school coaches. This is not Ben Johnson going back to face Detroit and wanting to show his bag of tricks. The Raiders gave up a lot of yards in Week 1 (287), but that number was inflated by New England playing from behind and abandoning the run. They only averaged 6.2 yards per attempt.

Herbert's 256.5 yards divided by his 33.5 pass attempt line implies 7.7 yards per which is well over his career high of 7.2 yards per attempt.

Quentin Johnston Under 3.5 Receptions (+100 BetMGM)

I am probably the biggest Quentin Johnston defender not named Johnston or Harbaugh, but my description of him is "he's an 80% free-throw shooter that airballs all of his misses." By this I mean his drops are often so costly and egregious that they stand out more in people's minds and he gets penalized for what he leaves on the field and not recognized for what he produces.

He rewarded defenders like me in Week 1 by basically winning the game with his 79 yards and two touchdowns. The fact that Johnston was targeted seven times was not surprising, but the fact that he caught five of those passes was. He has caught fewer than 60% of his targets for his career and as a result has come Under 3.5 receptions in nearly 70% of his games. Even if you isolate since last season, it's at 59%.

The last time he raised expectations from a great game was a 14-target, 13-reception, 186-yard game versus the Raiders on Jan. 5, 2025. He got everyone excited that he and Ladd McConkey would take Hebert to his first playoff win. Johnston had no receptions on five targets in the playoff loss. I think the pressure coming off a great Week 1 but playing in an intense atmosphere will get to him.

Ashton Jeanty Under 18.5 Rush Attempts (-120 Fanatics)

Jeanty had 19 carries in Week 1 but tallied just 38 yards. The game flow versus the Patriots resulted in more plays than you would expect in a 33-oint game. Because we think this game is going to be a close, low-scoring affair where both sides are comfortable playing the field position game, we see Jeanty not having 19 carries again. He is projected for 15.

I also like that if Brock Bowers does not play or is significantly slowed down then the Raiders' ability to convert third downs will go way down and the percentage of third-and-shorts will go down. This will result in fewer running downs for Jeanty.

Prop Cheat Sheet for the Game

I hand selected my favorite props from the table below which shows all of our model values vs the best lines and/or prices. The model projected stat (average of simulations) is in [brackets], a player's cover record vs that bet since the start of last season including playoff games and the current season cover record is also displayed. If you don't like what you see above then I won't be offended. Maybe one of these is more to your liking.

What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?"

These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.