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Inside the Lines team

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. 

We used our proprietary AI to identify the projections that had good betting value vs the line, and then identified the sportsbook offering the best line or price at the time we publish. The projection is in [BRACKETS] and the sportsbook is in (parentheses). We also show how the player has covered that bet since the start of last season and this season (CS) so far. 

DraftKings Best Bets

I am particularly high on the Quinshon Judkins Over. He barely practiced but was immediately named the starter versus Baltimore and had 10 carries despite being on a pitch count. I also like Dak Prescott against a bad pass defense in Chicago and am really surprised to see that line.

  • Bryce Young [0.88] Yes Pass INT -135, 57.4% (DK) | Last 16: 8-8 | CS: 2-0
  • Quinshon Judkins [13] Over 10.5 (-108 DK) Rush Attempts | Last 1: 0-1 | CS: 0-1
  • Trevor Lawrence [19.5] Under 20.5 (+105 DK) Pass Completions | Last 12: 7-5 | CS: 1-1 
  • Dyami Brown [2.1] Under 3.5 (-156 DK) Receptions | Last 20: 15-5 | CS: 1-1
  • Michael Pittman Jr. [63] Over 44.5 (-113 DK) Receiving Yards | Last 18: 8-10 | CS: 1-1 
  • Sam Darnold [239] Over 214.5 (-111 DK) Passing Yards | Last 20: 15-5 | CS: 1-1 
  • Dak Prescott [291] Over 259.5 (-112 DK) Passing Yards | Last 10: 4-6 | CS: 1-1 

BetMGM Best Bets

The Falcons were run heavy against Minnesota in order to protect Michael Penix Jr. from Minnesota's pass rush. They won't have those same concerns versus Carolina, and Penix is going to have his first multi-pass TD game this week.

  • Michael Penix Jr. [1.62] Over 1.5 (+130 MGM) Passing TDs | Last 7: 1-6 | CS: 0-2
  • Michael Penix Jr. [232] Over 209.5 (-115 MGM) Passing Yards | Last 7: 3-4 | CS: 1-1
  • Romeo Doubs [2.7] Under 3.5 (-110 MGM) Receptions | Last 16: 11-5 | CS: 2-0 
  • Saquon Barkley [104] Over 86.5 (-115 MGM) Rushing Yards | Last 22: 16-6 | CS: 1-1 
  • Jonathan Taylor [18] Over 12.5 (-110 MGM) Receiving Yards | Last 16: 5-11 | CS: 2-0 
  • J.K. Dobbins [70] Over 48.5 (-115 MGM) Rushing Yards | Last 16: 11-5 | CS: 2-0 
  • Christian McCaffrey [46] Over 36.5 (-115 MGM) Receiving Yards | Last 6: 4-2 | CS: 2-0 

FanDuel Best Bets

I don't think the Browns will muster enough first downs for Joe Flacco to attempt enough passes to come close to completing 24 passes. He also could get benched if the game is out of hand as he was against Baltimore. In that game, Dillon Gabriel looked good in garbage time with a nice TD pass.

  • Darnell Mooney [51] Over 37.5 (-114 FD) Receiving Yards | Last 17: 11-6 | CS: 0-1   
  • Joe Flacco [18.8] Under 23.5 (-108 FD) Pass Completions | Last 9: 4-5 | CS: 0-2  
  • Chase Brown [3.3] Over 2.5 (+102 FD) Receptions | Last 18: 10-8 | CS: 0-2 
  • Jaylen Warren [3.7] Over 2.5 (-148 FD) Receptions | Last 18: 8-10 | CS: 1-1 
  • Baker Mayfield [21] Over 17.5 (-114 FD) Rushing Yards | Last 20: 13-7 | CS: 2-0
  • Tyrod Taylor [30] Over 27.5 (-114 FD) Pass Attempts | Last 3: 0-3 | CS: 0-1 
  • Juwan Johnson [3.7] Under 4.5 (-112 FD) Receptions | Last 17: 11-6 | CS: 0-2 

Fanatics Best Bets

I still think Carson Wentz has enough muscle memory from when he was a good QB to get the ball to Justin Jefferson six times. Rico Dowdle hasn't done much in Carolina, but Chuba Hubbard is only averaging 3.65 yards per carry, so maybe this is the week they give Dowdle more chances.

  • Rico Dowdle [30] Over 15.5 (-105 FAN) Rushing Yards | Last 18: 16-2 | CS: 0-2 
  • Nick Chubb [15.2] Over 13.5 (+100 FAN) Rush Attempts | Last 10: 3-7 | CS: 0-2 
  • Justin Jefferson [5.9] Over 5.5 (+105 FAN) Receptions | Last 20: 12-8 | CS: 0-2 
  • A.J. Brown [4.4] Under 5.5 (-180 FAN) Receptions | Last 19: 14-5 | CS: 2-0 
  • Keenan Allen [3.6] Under 5.5 (-175 FAN) Receptions | Last 17: 13-4 | CS: 1-1 
  • Geno Smith [0.86] Yes Pass INT -140, 58.3% (FAN) | Last 19: 12-7 | CS: 2-0
  • DJ Moore [4.8] Over 4.5 (+100 FAN) Receptions | Last 19: 13-6 | CS: 1-1

Caesars Best Bets

Interestingly, Caesars is basically never offering an outlier line. They play it down the middle when setting odds. With Jayden Daniels possibly going to miss the game and Austin Ekeler out for the season, I'm banking on Bill to find the end zone as the Commanders' leading rusher.

What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?" 

These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.