As usual when the Cubs are home on a Friday, they host the lone matinee on the MLB slate at 2:20 ET as the San Francisco Giants make their lone visit of the season to the North Side to open a three-game weekend set. I almost always have an opinion on these Friday standalone matchups at Wrigley Field and have a parlay for today's game.
Giants vs. Cubs same-game parlay
- Chicago money line
- First inning Under 1.5 runs
FanDuel SGP price: +123
Both clubs played Thursday, but the Cubs didn't have to travel following their 7-6 win over the Athletics to snap a three-game skid. It's possible that Chicago activates infielder Matt Shaw ahead of this one as Shaw started an injury rehab assignment on Tuesday but wasn't expected to need very long.
The Giants had to make a relatively short drive from Milwaukee after a 12-9 upset win there yesterday to split a four-game set. That "improved" San Francisco to 13-22 away, one of the worst marks in the majors, and that's certainly part of the reason why I'm backing the Cubs today.
Trail Matt Severance's parlay at FanDuel, where new users can get $350 in bonus bets:
Chicago has been obliterated by injuries in the rotation. Former top prospect Ben Brown has been a godsend and when I first started formulating this story I liked the Cubs because of him. Alas, Brown has been pushed to Saturday.
Instead, righty Edward Cabrera (3-2, 4.00 ERA), Chicago's big offseason trade acquisition, will come off the injured list (blister; that has been a recurring problem in his career) and get the call. I live in South Florida so I am well aware of Cabrera from his Marlins days, and he's still that guy. The 28-year-old can be utterly dominant one start and utterly terrible the next. Cabrera has been better at home (3.55 ERA) and during the day (3.42 ERA).
In his final three starts before landing on the IL, Cabrera a 6.39 ERA in 12.2 innings. Before that stretch, he had a 3.27 ERA in 41.1 innings. That's totally who he is. The team is hoping a bit of an in-season break will help Cabrera.
Do I like the Cubs as much now as I did with Brown? I don't but still prefer them especially as Cabrera is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in five career starts vs. the Giants. The SportsLine Projection Model has him at 5.1 innings, 5.0 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs. That sounds about right. His walks (model has 1.5) are what need to be monitored.
San Francisco starts lefty and 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray (3-6, 4.45 ERA), although the 34-year-old looks nothing like a Cy Young caliber pitcher of late. Ray is winless in four straight and not able to complete five full innings in any of them. He always has had nasty stuff but can be wild and his pitch counts have been high of late because of walks or deep counts.
In five May starts, Ray was 1-3 with a 6.44 ERA and 17 walks in 29.1 innings whereas in his first 45.2 innings of the season, he had a 2.76 ERA. Ray and first-year Giants manager Tony Vitello â who might not get a second season -- have said the pitcher's health is fine. "Mechanics are a little off right now," Ray said recently.
There is a lot of chatter the Giants made trade him by the Aug. 3 deadline, but Ray would clearly have to rebuild some value here soon. He's on an expiring contract so that would bring the price down a little, and the Cubs have often been mentioned as a possible landing spot. Ray has made seven career appearances vs. the Cubbies but the only one this decade was last year when he got the win at Wrigley Field, allowing one run and three hits over six.
Winds apparently will be howling out today at 15 mph, so neither starting pitcher may factor into the decision. Chicago is a much better offensive team, ranking seventh in runs, while the Giants are 24th.
I know our tech guys are working on getting us the No Runs First Inning prop, and I am totally digging my first-inning plays of late. So great to have a winning leg in your pocket after an inning -- at least so far has been the case. I'm not doing U 0.5 in the first due to the winds, but also because of them U 1.5 isn't badly priced.
Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
