It's my final home runs picks story before the All-Star break, which got me wondering what the MLB record was for most dingers before the break. For whatever reason, I like random facts like that and remember them -- if "Jeopardy" ever has a sports-only version, I would dominate. The mark is 39 by Barry Bonds in that 2001 asterisk season with the Giants. Seattle's Cal Raleigh came up one shy last year. Bonds' record will be safe until 2027, as the Phillies' Kyle Schwarber leads the majors with 32 homers. I will be the guy picking the Home Run Derby for Monday's festivities from Philadelphia, incidentally.
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Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I am playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were the the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani and Rays' Junior Caminero -- so not exactly going out on a huge limb on that duo. Ohtani had a rare oh-fer against the Padres, while the rising superstar Caminero, who will be in Monday's All-Star Home Run Derby, did go yard in Houston and paid at a price of +280. Per usual, all my HR picks mean I recommend Over 1.5 total bases even more.
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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, July 10
- Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+340, FanDuel)
- Austin Wells, Yankees (+459, DraftKings)
Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+340, FanDuel)
Coors Field is my No. 1 choice to take a home run play from and Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park second, with the Cubs and Reds opening their weekend NL Central series there with a 7:10 ET first pitch. No major weather factors.
I was thinking about doing a separate story on the return from a long injured list stint for Reds ace Hunter Greene, who pitches tonight, and perhaps his impact on Cincinnati's longer-shot playoff chances. When he is on, Greene is about as good as any right-hander in the Show. But when you throw as hard as Greene does -- are you listening, Jacob Misorowski? -- you can be injury-prone and that has been Greene.
Off March elbow surgery, Greene made his season debut on July 4 at home vs. Baltimore and was shredded for eight earned runs and seven hits (one homer) over 3.1 innings, but the velocity was largely there at 98-99 mph. Clearly, though, plenty of rust. And I'm hoping that carries over to Friday.
When looking at a divisional matchup, isn't funny how one guy can have great splits off a terrific pitcher from the division while the rest of the team struggles? Greene makes two former Cubs All-Stars look silly in Ian Happ (2-for-19, 10 Ks career), Dansby Swanson (0-for-14, six Ks) ... and even current All-Star Pete-Crow Armstrong (1-for-11, one HR, three Ks) hasn't had much success.
Yet designated hitter Seiya Suzuki hammers Greene at 8-for-14 with two homers, three doubles and a triple -- a cool 1.500 OPS. Suzuki is having a pretty good year with 16 homers and hit one each of the past two games in another hitter-friendly park in Baltimore. He did leave Thursday with cramps but was not concerned, so neither am I. Tonight marks the Cubs' first visit this season to Great American Ball Park, and Suzuki hit two homers in 22 at-bats there in 2025.
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Austin Wells, Yankees (+459, DraftKings)
The Yankees don't get to the nation's capital often, and the Washington Nationals are legit playoff contenders for the first time since winning their only World Series in 2019, so it should be a packed house with the 6:45 ET first pitch -- I'm sure a fun atmosphere all weekend at Nationals Park. Guys get fired up playing in situations like that. No major weather concerns.
I believe in the "Horse for the Course" scenario on the PGA Tour where a struggling top golfer gets to a track he has fared well at in the past, he plays well there and it turns his entire season around. Fixes the yips or whatnot. Maybe that can happen tonight for massively struggling Yankees catcher Austin Wells.
There is no doubt New York will add a piece or two ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, and one of the glaring holes is at catcher because of the disappointing season Wells has had. The 26-year-old lefty slugger was third in the the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year voting and then upped his home run total to 21 last year. But it has been major regression in 2026, as Wells is batting only .151 with five homers and a .488 OPS. Combined, the Yankees are getting -1.2 WAR from their catchers. You hear a ton of talk about the team eyeing Minnesota's Ryan Jeffers.
Trade rumors/potentially losing your job can help snap a guy out of a season-long slump, and maybe the Jeffers-to-Yankees rumors have done so for Wells. In Thursday's 12-4 win at Tampa Bay, Wells had his best game in weeks, going 2-for-4 with a solo homer and a walk. It was his first dinger since May 22.
The Nationals are expected to use an opener, but Wells generally hits well down the lineup so that shouldn't affect him, barring a big first inning for the Yankees. No, I chose Wells because he is 4-for-10 with two homers and a double career off Washington primary pitcher Zack Littell (7-6, 5.02 ERA). His 22 homers allowed this season are second-most in the Show. Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe also have good splits off Littell.
