If nothing else stands out news/injury-wise on Fridays going forward, and there aren't that many left in a regular season with 37 total days remaining, then I'll just open this column with updated futures betting odds for the MLB home run champion. Presently, Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber leads with 37 and is the +130 favorite, while Houston's Yordan Alvarez (+200) and Atlanta's Matt Olson (+250) are one back.
DraftKings does have one new season prop that has caught my eye: Will Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong have a 40-homer, 40-steal season? He's at 31 of each with Yes a +1100 longshot and No at -2500. I sure hope Yes hits but I doubt the homers will happen. PCA is the 10th player in baseball history with consecutive 30-30 seasons.
Colorado is home tonight and normally that would have my attention. I take a first look at these as early as Monday morning and I was going to be all over a few Guardians facing Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (3-8, 7.08 ERA) tonight, but Lorenzen was designated for assignment later Monday so there goes that, wrecking one great MLB prop betting situation.
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Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were the Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+508) and the Giants' Rafael Devers (+560). Guerrero had a hit vs. the Yankees but ended up leaving injured after a collision and ended up on the seven-day concussion injured list. Did you know the All-Star has not homered yet at home this season? Crazy. Devers had a double and RBI against Colorado -- as usual, all of my home run prop picks mean I like Over 1.5 total bases at the best sports betting apps even better.
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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, August 21
- Yandy Diaz, Rays (+498, DraftKings)
- Randal Grichuk, White Sox (+350, FanDuel)
Yandy Diaz, Rays (+498, DraftKings)
The first game in a very important AL East series between the first-place Rays and wild-card hopeful Orioles has a first pitch of 7:15 ET from beautiful Camden Yards, which is generally hitter-friendly. Neutral weather it appears. Baltimore just got a super-charged boost last weekend in taking three straight games at Tampa Bay but couldn't finish what would have been a shock four-game sweep on Monday.
I would argue that one of the 10 most underrated hitters in the majors, and maybe one of the top five is Tampa Bay All-Star designated hitter Yandy Diaz. Most casual MLB fans barely know the 35-year-old Cuban because he has been playing with the anonymous Rays since 2019 -- people do know rising superstar slugger Junior Caminero because he has competed in the past two Home Run Derby competitions, including a runner-up finish in 2024, and is among this year's home run leaders.
Diaz always puts up strong numbers, although he's not a 40-homer guy or the type. His career high was 35 in 2023. Last year, it was 29 and 19 so far in 2026. While Diaz's home splits are massively better than away (.370 slugging, five HRs on road), he's crushed Baltimore lefty Trevor Rogers despite not yet going yard at 7-for-13 with three doubles for a 1.341 slugging percentage. Hey, maybe those were all off the wall.
Rogers has given up 13 dingers in his 23 starts and gave up one last Sunday in a quality start and victory in St. Petersburg, with Ryan Vilade being the one to get him. Diaz had a first-inning single and then two groundouts vs. Rogers in that one. Diaz did homer in the series finale Monday, his second this year overall against the Orioles. None of those are at Camden Yards.
Guess we also have to also consider Vilade at +610 as he's now 4-for-4 career off Rogers with a double, triple and homer, but I wasn't about to lead this story with the 27-year-old journeyman, who wasn't a regular with his three previous clubs.
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Randal Grichuk, White Sox (+350, FanDuel)
We have big-market action from the South Side tonight with the New York Mets opening a series at the Chicago White Sox with a 7:40 ET first pitch. The Rate is hitter-friendly and the weather looks like nothing to worry about. I'm a Sox fan too, and I would have taken anyone's action this spring that the Mets with their MLB-high $357 million payroll would finish with a better record than the Pale House and their $83 million, but baseball is a funny game.
The Metropolitans have made some horrible financial decisions in recent years (although it's not like owner Steve Cohen can't afford it), and one of those terrible contracts handed out was a three-year, $75 million deal to lefty Sean Manaea after a terrific 2024 season in Queens. Manaea has been largely terrible since then while making about $20 million per season through 2027. Life ain't fair, man.
Manaea (4-5, 4.22 ERA), on the hill tonight, has surrendered 16 total homers in his 111.0 innings this season and gave up two last time out against Washington. Nine of those 16 have come on the road, while right-handed hitters account for 12 of those 16 bombs. They hit him hard overall at with a .267 average and .829 OPS.
Can't say I ever thought I'd use White Sox outfielder Randal Grichuk in this column, but the 35-year-old journeyman has been a really solid fit in the lineup and clubhouse for an incredibly young team on the rise. Grichuk, who started the season with the Yankees, has 10 homers and a .547 slugging percentage and is a lefty-killer at .312 with a .632 slugging and eight homers. Grichuk has seen Manaea more than any other White Sox batter and is 6-for-19 with a double, triple and two homers against him.
