What better way to start the July 4 holiday weekend than with a Cardinals-Cubs matinee Friday at Wrigley Field? That's the definition of baseball. Chicago appears to be in quite advantageous position for the 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch in what is surprisingly St. Louis' first visit to the North Side this season.
Cardinals vs. Cubs MLB same-game parlay
- Chicago alt +1
- First inning Under 1.5 runs
DraftKings SGP price: +113
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I'm a Cubs fan as you likely know and try to bet these standalone Friday matinees when I can. But I definitely bet these when the Cubbies have the day off on Thursday and the visiting team has to play the night before and fly in late for a super-quick turnaround. That's exactly where the Cardinals are after a wild 11-5 win to complete a series in Atlanta last night.
It appears Milwaukee will capture the NL Central again, but the Cardinals and Cubs are likely to jockey for second place for the rest of the summer and perhaps for the league's top wild card spot. Chicago currently holds it by a half-game over Philadelphia. St. Louis holds the last one, 2.5 games back of the Cubs. I'd be fine going to heaven if I can see a Cards-Cubs playoff series.
The SportsLine Projection Model is significantly higher on the Cubs as it gives them an 85.4% shot to make the playoffs, and they certainly should get there despite a rotation that has been utterly obliterated by injuries. They absolutely have to add pitching ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline with Cade Horton and Justin Steele done for the year, and Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon and Ben Brown all on the injured list. Brown is probably done for 2026, too, and had been great.
The Cubs were so desperate for an arm that they recently acquired struggling lefty David Peterson from the Mets for a lower-level prospect, and he'll get the start on Friday. Peterson had been 3-6 with a 6.09 ERA in 16 games (eight starts) covering 68 innings with the Mets this season.
But the Cubs thought he would be much better with them because Peterson is a ground-ball pitcher, and they have arguably the best middle infield defense in the majors with Gold Glovers in second baseman Nico Hoerner and shortstop Dansby Swanson. So far, so good as Peterson's team debut last Friday was a win in Milwaukee. The 30-year-old allowed a homer on his first Cubs pitch but settled down to give up two runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings.
Peterson did face the Cardinals back on June 10 at Citi Field with the Mets and allowed six runs and seven hits in 3.2 innings after following a one-inning opener. Nelson Velazquez and Jordan Walker both went yard off him. The model forecasts Peterson at 5.1 innings, 4.5 strikeouts, 5.5 hits allowed and earned runs today.
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Righty Andre Pallante (9-5, 3.83 ERA) has been a big part of the Cardinals overachieving thus far. If you had wagered $100 on the Cardinals to win each of his 16 starts, you would be up $452. The 27-year-old had a six-start unbeaten streak snapped last Saturday as he was pounded for five runs and 11 hits in a home loss to Miami.
But Pallante has been much better on the road at 5-0 with a 2.73 ERA and .169 opponents' batting average in six starts. Could we see history from the Cubs' Swanson at the plate? In Wednesday's 23-run effort against the Padres, he had three homers and eight RBI. The game prior, he had two homers and three RBI. The MLB record for most homers over a three-game span is seven by Shawn Green of the Dodgers from May 23â25, 2002. The record for most RBI over a three-game span is 16 by the Cubs' Sammy Sosa from Aug. 10-12, 2002 (absolutely remember that when Sammy went bananas).
Swanson just had 15 RBI over a three-game span last month against the Mets and has a whopping 26 RBI over his past 10 games -- that is the most by a Cub in a 10-game span in franchise history. Swanson is the first Cubs player with back-to-back multi-homer games since Patrick Wisdom on Aug. 27-28, 2021. No Cub has had three such games. Swanson is +4800 to hit two today but is 2-for-14 off Pallante with four Ks.
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Not the best pitching matchup for the Cubbies, so that's why I flipped to +1 for some insurance. But, again, they have such a massive rest edge that we still have to go. And we may as well find out in the first inning how things are looking. That might be lazy, but it's July 4 weekend.
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