Until 2024, trying to predict NFL Comeback Player of the Year was a total crapshoot because there really were no criteria for those Associated Press voters. But starting with that '24 season, the criteria was changed to give the award to a player who returned from "illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season." So, long story short, it could no longer go to a guy who was just terrible one year (if healthy) and good the next.
I took a look Monday at updated NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year betting trends from BetMGM and today will do the same for Comeback Player of the Year with the season kicking off one week from tonight. Much like for NFL MVP, CPOY has become a quarterback award, with a signal-caller having won seven straight seasons until that run ended in 2025 with 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey taking it home.
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McCaffrey was the first tailback winner since the Cardinals' Garrison Hearst in 2001. Hard to argue against McCaffrey, though. He was limited to just four games in 2024 but played all 17 last year and totaled better than 2,100 yards from scrimmage and 17 TDs. Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson was second in the 2025 voting and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott third.
Two players have won this award twice in quarterbacks Chad Pennington and Joe Burrow, but needless to say McCaffrey won't be winning again this year. He isn't even a betting option at BetMGM. Nor should he be. But San Francisco has three Pro Bowl-caliber players returning from major 2025 injuries who are close to the top of the board in pass-rusher Nick Bosa (+2000), linebacker Fred Warner (+3000) and tight end George Kittle (+3000).
Running backs have never won this in back-to-back years and the one with the shortest odds is the Giants' back-flipping Cam Skattebo at +3500. A defensive player hasn't won since Chiefs safety Eric Berry in 2015, and newly unretired Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald is a +800 fourth-favorite. Considering the future Hall of Famer hasn't played since 2023, he'd be my choice as it would be a story right out of Hollywood.
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But the favorites are three quarterbacks: Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes (+185), Washington's Jayden Daniels (+400) and Minnesota's Kyler Murray (+550). The book is quite exposed on Mahomes, as he leads in handle (46.2%) and tickets sold (18.1%) on this prop.
Comeback Player of the Year is about the only thing Mahomes hasn't won yet in the NFL, but he "somewhat" qualifies coming off a torn ACL and LCL that limited him to 14 games last year. He will be ready for the season opener vs. Denver. Since he was cleared in late July to participate in all football activities, Mahomes has not missed any practices but didn't play in the preseason.
If you were wondering, Tom Brady won Comeback Player of the Year in 2009 after suffering a major knee injury of his own in the 2008 opener and missing the rest of that season. So the obvious GOAT parallels are there, but Brady missed basically a full campaign , while Mahomes missed three games. Berry has been Kansas City's only winner since this award returned in 1998.
Murray is second in tickets (12.0%) and handle (9.7%) at BetMGM, and he has the double-whammy of coming back from injury and starting over with a new team, as Murray has won the Vikings' starting job over former first round pick J.J. McCarthy. Murray probably has more offensive talent around him than Mahomes does.
The player the book is most exposed on is another veteran quarterback in Deshaun Watson, who won the very underwhelming job in Cleveland over Shedeur Sanders â although few expect Watson to actually keep it all year. BetMGM is most exposed on Watson on this prop as he has moved from +8000 to +5000, taking 7.4% of tickets and 6.9% of handle.
I'm not sure Browns fans would even want Watson to win this, they want him gone so badly. Plus, that would mean Cleveland had a decent season and not picking No. 1 overall in the 2027 draft. The only Browns winner of Comeback Player of the Year was QB Joe Flacco in 2023 in part because Watson was limited to six games due to injury. Flacco only played in five late-season games and then the NFL changed the wording of this award when he won it.
