Sophomore slump or worse? What's going on with Jaguars' Brian Thomas Jr. and Cardinals' Marvin Harrison Jr.?

We all have seen sophomore slumps. Players that seemingly broke out come crashing back down to Earth as quickly as they rose, going from being the next big thing to a bust quickly in the eyes of most fans. At wide receiver, this happens a lot with the variance that comes from playing the sport. I mean, you gotta get the ball to make something happen with it, right?

However, for two of the most prominent sophomore receivers in the NFL, the opening to the 2025 season has been … less than kind. Arizona's Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jacksonville's Brian Thomas Jr. have gotten off to a rough start to their 2025 campaigns, despite being the bona fide No. 1 receivers for their respective teams. Both are near the bottom of the league in receiving yards and touchdowns for all receivers in the NFL; not the place you want to be heading into what was supposed to be a second-year breakout. 

Both Harrison Jr. and Thomas Jr. are incredibly talented guys who can tilt a game with their ability, but their issues feel a bit like a choose-your-own-adventure book right now: lots of answers that can technically be correct, but with a lot of answers come a lot of guys to blame.

We'll start with Thomas Jr., who has simply had a nightmare start to the season. Despite being targeted 25 times, he's only hauled in seven of those passes. Per Next Gen Stats, Thomas Jr. is the only player among the top 20 in receptions who has a catch rate below 40%, and the closest person to him is Los Angeles Rams WR Davante Adams … at 44.8%. So he's seeing targets at a high volume, yet not being very successful on those targets.

Now, we've all seen the term "hospital ball" get thrown around concerning Thomas Jr. and his QB Trevor Lawrence. Let's get one thing clear: not every in-breaking route is a hospital ball. Tough catches over the middle are going to happen for even the best receivers in the NFL, they're going to get hit on digs and over routes, especially with NFL defenses playing more aggressive quarters coverage with the safety driving on dig routes hard.

Now that we explained what a hospital ball actually is, the blame for Thomas Jr.'s slow start to the season is spread out equally among Thomas Jr. and Lawrence. Schematically, the Jaguars are very close to being an elite offense; they're 16th in EPA per play despite leading the NFL in drops and seemingly having an illegal shift penalty every three plays. Thomas Jr. is being asked to run a much different diet of routes in his second season than his first: more in-breaking routes over the middle and less iso ball on the outside. Per Next Gen Stats, 41 of his 105 routes so far this season have been on in-breakers -- 39% of his routes run. That's a 5% increase on his in-breaking routes from 2024, a noticeable jump from his rookie year. He's also being asked to work a lot more in the quick game, which is reflected in his heat maps from 2024 versus 2025:

As the Jaguars offense has become more methodical and hammering the middle of the field, Thomas Jr. has struggled to adjust. He'll stop on routes over the middle when Lawrence wants him to keep running (the Jordan Battle INT against Cincinnati) and he just flat out drops passes. 

Lawrence has also sailed him high on passes and not given him many shots at explosive passes downfield (Lawrence is 0-for-4 on all his targets to Thomas Jr. of over 20 air yards). But even with all that said, I think Thomas Jr. is very close to having a big game, because the Jaguars keep throwing him the ball. Lawrence keeps going to Thomas Jr. over the middle of the field, and their rapport continues to build on a lot of the concepts coach Liam Coen likes to run. On the explosive pass that would set up the Travis Etienne game-winning TD, Lawrence checks into an in-breaker from Thomas Jr. against the Texans' Cover 0 blitz. The timing is on point, the ball is in the great place to set up Thomas Jr. for yards after the catch and the rest is history.

Coen spoke about Thomas Jr. after the game, and that confidence he mentioned is something that I think is going to help Thomas Jr. going forward, because it's clear Lawrence and Coen trust him. The best thing for Thomas Jr. is what the Jaguars are doing: keep going to him.

For Marvin Harrison Jr., however, the answers get a little bit simpler, and within that the questions get a lot tougher to ask. Harrison Jr. is not only coming off a rough game, dropping two critical passes in the Cardinals' 16-15 loss to the 49ers, but he's been an afterthought in the Cardinals offense. He's only got 10 catches on 17 targets, the only players with less targets around that same volume are the Cowboys' Jalen Tolbert and Patriots' Kayshon Boutte.

At points in the game, it sometimes feels like he disappears, the idea of Harrison Jr. fading away as the Cardinals still struggle to find answers throwing the ball. If you're wondering why this feels so familiar … this is the same problem the Cardinals had last year. The biggest difference is that offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is actually trying to help Harrison Jr. out a lot more than he did in 2024. Last year, it felt like Harrison Jr. fell into the "sacrificial X receiver" category for the Cardinals offense. This is a player who lives on the outside and only runs go routes or isolated routes as the passes get thrown the other way.

It's felt like Harrison Jr. has been more involved and lined up in different ways for the Cardinals this season. Last season, 27% of his routes came from the slot; so far this season, he's had 28% of his routes from the slot. He's run more crossers and routes over the middle of the field, using his graceful long speed and separation skills to get open against zone coverage. The heat maps for Harrison Jr. also show that:

So, if the offensive coordinator is working to get Harrison Jr. more involved, and Harrison Jr. is creating these new chances, what's going on? This is where the answers get tough, because I think the answer to the Harrison Jr. question is QB Kyler Murray and to an extent Petzing as well. Murray is not a middle-of-the-field thrower; he never really has been and might never be. For an offense that wants to run the ball effectively and take those shots over the middle of the field, Murray just isn't pulling the trigger on those passes. Where Murray is at his best is using his legs and then throwing it to the edges of the defense where his receivers make contested catches.

The problem there is … Harrison Jr. isn't really a contested-catch receiver. Per Next Gen Stats, Harrison Jr. is 0-for-3 on all tight-window targets this season (tight window is defined as there being less than a yard of separation between the receiver and the defender). In 2024, he had a 30% catch rate on those passes, below guys like Josh Palmer and Sterling Shepard. Harrison Jr. isn't blameless in this at all, he's doing a lot of things that receivers will tell you are bad habits: jumping to catch a wide-open pass, going to body catch contested passes. It's a bit of an odd couple pairing between Murray and Harrison Jr., but one that the Cardinals are banking on working much better than it has. 

So how do the Cardinals fix this, especially with James Conner out for the rest of the season? I think it comes back to Petzing and how he can incorporate Harrison Jr. into the game early and often. The tricky part is that Harrison Jr. also isn't a YAC receiver you run on screens, so what Petzing has to do to get him the ball early are simple slants, speed outs and hitches. Getting him going early has to play a part in the offense moving forward, and Harrison has to convert on the tight window catches. We've seen Harrison win from the slot and in the quick game, but both buttons feel like they're pressed enough in real time.

In addition, the offense feels like it's either deep ball or no ball, with very little intermediate game. Now is that a knock on Murray or Petzing? I think it's both, because if Murray doesn't throw over the middle of the field it neuters what the offense can be. However, Petzing has to give his QB some designed targets in that range. This is part of why I'm a bit lower on Harrison Jr.'s outlook in this offense compared to Thomas Jr. The odd grouping of Murray and Harrison Jr. hasn't been consistent enough, and I'm not sure it ever will be.