Giants starting Jaxson Dart: Have Russell Wilson's last four seasons jeopardized future Hall of Fame chances?

During the final weeks of the 2024 season, it became clear that Russell Wilson's time as a starting NFL quarterback was coming to an end in the not too distant future. The end may soon be upon us following another uninspiring performance from Wilson during the Giants' Week 3 loss to the Chiefs that dropped New York to 0-3. 

On Tuesday, the Giants turned to rookie Jaxson Dart for their Week 4 game against the Chargers, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported. While this move signals the beginning of a new era for the Giants, it could also mean the end of Wilson's run as a starting NFL quarterback, one that may not end up immortalized in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. 

Wilson appeared to be a shoo-in for future Hall of Fame induction entering the 2022 season, his first with the Broncos following a largely successful 10-year run with the Seahawks that included a Super Bowl win, a second Super Bowl appearance and nine Pro Bowl berths. 

But after two rocky years in Denver, an up-and-down season in Pittsburgh and more struggles this season in New York, it's safe to say that Wilson's eventual spot in Canton, Ohio, is anything but a sure thing. 

There are 26 quarterbacks who have been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Of those quarterbacks, none experienced the type of decline Wilson is experiencing. The two that come closest are Johnny Unitas and Joe Namath.

Unitas finished his career with three subpar seasons that culminated with a dreadful final year with the Chargers. But Unitas' career was so good with the Colts (he was largely considered to be pro football's greatest quarterback during the NFL's half-century) that voters gave his final seasons little to no thought. 

Like Unitas, Namath finished his career with a new team (he spent one forgettable year with the Rams) while ending his career with multiple subpar seasons. But Namath's decline was largely due to ravaged knees, not diminishing skills. He also had the bona fides of being the first pro quarterback to throw for over 4,000 yards and leading the Jets to the biggest upset in pro football history. 

Wilson's bona fides are good, too, but they aren't as strong as Unitas' or Namath's. That's why his late-career slide won't be overlooked when his career is looked at by Hall of Fame voters. 

Quarterbacks have earned Hall of Fame induction in the past by having careers that were defined by either iconic moments, prolific stats, notable individual honors, or a combination of the three. Virtually every Hall of Fame quarterback has at least two of those three unofficial criteria. Wilson has some of all three, but not quite enough of any to be considered a slam dunk future Hall of Famer. 

Wilson's 10 Pro Bowls and one Super Bowl win are his biggest arguments for future induction. In fact, his 10 Pro Bowl selections are tied for the fifth-most of any quarterback in NFL history. He has as many Pro Bowl nods as Unitas and Aaron Rodgers and one more than Hall of Famers John Elway, Dan Marino, Fran Tarkenton and Warren Moon. He has two more Pro Bowl nods than Joe Montana (who was considered the NFL's greatest quarterback pre Tom Brady) and contemporary Philip Rivers. He has four more Pro Bowl nods than Ben Roethlisberger, who is considered a future Hall of Fame lock. 

A stat that should bolster Wilson's future Hall of Fame case is that he is one of seven quarterbacks in history with 10 Pro Bowls and at least one Super Bowl win. Three of those quarterbacks (Unitas, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre) are in the Hall of Fame, and the other three sans Wilson (Brady, Rodgers and Drew Brees) are shoo-ins for future induction. 

One thing that those quarterbacks have that Wilson doesn't, however, is an All-Pro nod. Wilson also never won league or Super Bowl MVP, honors that significantly bolster a Hall of Fame argument. He also never won Offensive Player of the Year.  

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If Wilson one day earns Hall of Fame induction, he will be the first to do so without having an All-Pro, MVP or OPOY on his resume. That's a rather big hurdle he'll have to jump one day if he is going to ultimately receive a bronze jacket and bronze bust. 

Another hurdle -- and possibly Wilson's biggest one -- is that his most memorable moment in the NFL was his jaw-dropping interception to Malcolm Butler in the final seconds of Super Bowl XLIX that cost Seattle a chance at winning back-to-back Super Bowls. While the pick was an all-time great play on Butler's part, and while Pete Carroll deserves more criticism than anyone for his decision to throw the ball instead of giving it to Marshawn Lynch, Wilson's role in the iconic/infamous moment is undeniable. 

Really, this story wouldn't exist if Wilson had hit Ricardo Lockette on that fateful pass. Had that play unfolded differently, Wilson could have thrown the game-winning touchdown pass in a Super Bowl that saw him join Hall of Famers Bart Starr, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Montana, Troy Aikman, Elway and Brady (and eventually Patrick Mahomes) as the only starting quarterbacks to lead their teams to back-to-back Super Bowl wins. 

Had Seattle won that game, everything that transpired in the following years for Wilson would have been gravy for him in terms of his status as a future Hall of Famer, even with how the last four seasons have gone for him. Instead, Wilson's career, while extremely good, may ultimately come up short of receiving pro football's highest honor.