Chargers vs. Vikings prediction: Can Carson Wentz or Justin Herbert turn things around for their teams?
L.A. hosts Minnesota on Thursday in a game both teams need to win
By
Jared Dubin
•
6 min read
In the Week 8 edition of "Thursday Night Football," the Los Angeles Chargers play host to the Minnesota Vikings.
L.A. enters this game at 4-3 after dropping a wild game to the Colts last week, in which its defense got absolutely set in flames. The Chargers have now lost three of their last four since starting the season 3-0, and they're still dealing with a rash of injuries as they look to keep pace in the AFC West.
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Minnesota came out of its bye with a loss to the Eagles, dropping the Vikings back to .500 on the season. Two of their three wins have come against the Bengals and Browns, so they should be looking to prove that they can compete with actual competitive teams as they move into a considerably tougher stretch of schedule over the next two months.
Which of these two teams will bounce back and get into the win column? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Chargers vs. Vikings live
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 23 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
- Stream: Amazon Prime
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Chargers -3, O/U 44.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
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When the Vikings have the ball
The Vikings' passing game has, somewhat surprisingly, looked better with Carson Wentz under center than it did with J.J. McCarthy. Kevin O'Connell has been willing to pass the ball at a higher rate with Wentz in the lineup, and the backup QB has done a better job of both getting the ball out (his sack rate is less than half of McCarthy's) and getting it down the field to his pass-catchers than did the rookie during his early-season stint.
Wentz has had the advantage of having Jordan Addison in the lineup for three of his starts, while McCarthy didn't have him at all, and that's been of tremendous benefit to the offense. Addison has gone for 4-114-0, 5-41-1 and 9-128-0 in his three appearances, and he'd helped take advantage of the coverage rolled Justin Jefferson's way while also allowing more space for Jefferson himself to operate. Jefferson has gone for 22-328-0 in Addison's three games after totaling 12-200-1 in the three games prior to his return.
But while Wentz has gotten the receivers going a bit, he's also unsurprisingly undermined the offense himself at times with ill-timed sacks and incomprehensible turnovers. He barely had to do anything in his first start against the Bengals thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns, and in his other three games, he has three touchdown passes against four interceptions. His pick-six against the Eagles last week was entirely inexplicable. Sometimes, he seemingly just has his processor go offline for a play or two or seven, and it looks like he hasn't played football before.
Against a Chargers pass defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in success rate, that could be dangerous. Then again, we also saw the Chargers get absolutely torn apart by Daniel Jones last week, and part of their high success rate ranking is having played games against the Raiders, Broncos and Dolphins. So perhaps Wentz has more of a chance to get going here than it might appear on the surface. At the very least, O'Connell will scheme him into position for success, and then it's up to him to take advantage of being put in those good situations.
The Vikings may have more luck running the ball against a Chargers front that has gotten licked to the tune of 5.1 yards per carry and the league's third-highest rushing success rate. Jordan Mason should probably be expected to lead the backfield whether Aaron Jones returns from his hamstring injury or not (he's listed as questionable), and Mason has averaged 4.5 yards a pop so far this year. If Jones is out, I expect to see a lot of downhill runs for Mason, with the Vikings trying to work the play-action passing game off of that.
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When the Chargers have the ball
The Chargers have been one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL all season, dropping back on 64.9% of their plays, according to Tru Media. They also have the league's second-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE), according to Establish the Run, and that holds true for both the entire game and in neutral situations. They've been slightly less pass-happy over their last four games as they have dealt with injuries at tackle and running back, but they're still seventh in PROE during that time.
The reason this is particularly relevant for this game is that the Vikings have a pretty wide split between their effectiveness against the pass and against the run. According to Tru Media, they rank fifth so far this season in opponents' passing success rate and just 19th in success rate against the run. Opponents have thus been extremely run-heavy against the Vikes, calling a rush on 49.0% of their plays.
The Chargers, of course, may decide to go pass-heavy either way. The strength of their team at the moment is Justin Herbert and the pass-catchers. Even nominal starting running back Kimani Vidal, who is filling in for Omarion Hampton, is a better pass-catcher than a runner. He clocked the Dolphins on the ground two weeks ago, but so does everybody. In his career outside of that game, he's averaging around 3.4 yards per carry on his 56 totes. So, don't be surprised if it's a lot of Herbert dropping back and looking for the likes of Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen and Orande Gadsden II on Thursday night.
If and when he does drop back, the Chargers will be faced with a pass rush that blitzes at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The Vikings have sent extra rushers on 41.9% of dropbacks, via Tru Media, which ranks second-highest in the league behind only the Falcons. Minnesota has killed teams when rushing five or more players, ranking third in the league in EPA per dropback.
With L.A.'s issues up front (we still don't know whether the starting tackles will actually suit up; they're each listed as questionable), it'll be important for Herbert to get the ball out quickly, which could lead to more work for the underneath targets like McConkey, Allen and Gadsden than for Johnston, who does more of his work down the field. Around 44% of opponent passes against the Vikings have traveled 0 to 5 air yards, according to Tru Media, which is the third-highest rate in football. They've faced bottom-10 rates of throws in the 6 to 10, 11 to 20, and 20-plus air-yard range.
The Chargers should definitely at least try to get the run game off the ground, but it could prove difficult with Vidal and practice-squad passing-down back Nyheim Hines in the backfield. (Hassan Haskins is also out -- not that he was particularly effective rushing the ball anyway.) They're not a particularly good run-blocking unit to begin with, and it's not like the Vikings are slouches against the run; they're just not as good against the run as they are against the pass.
Instead, this is likely to be a strength-on-strength matchup, with Herbert facing Brian Flores and his creative schemes. That's one of the most potentially exciting matchups you can draw up in the league.
Prediction
In a game where two teams seem likely to have more success running the ball than throwing due to the respective strengths of the opposing defenses, but also probably still want to rely on their passing game to some extent, I'm going to lean toward the team with the quarterback I trust more. That's pretty clearly the Chargers here.
Pick: Chargers 24, Vikings 20
