World Cup Golden Boot futures: Barrage of goals shakes things up, Messi joins Mbappe and Kane among favorites

Fans and bettors need to "brace" themselves for a Golden Boot race that could come down to the wire at the 2026 World Cup. A diverse group of goalscorers have been filling the nets, with Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal the latest to record a brace in a victory against Saudi Arabia on Sunday. 

Lionel Messi had a hat trick in Argentina's opener, and he gets a chance to add to that total in Monday's noon ET match against Austria. He is the co-favorite at +300 to win the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot. He joins superstar Kylian Mbappe of France as a co-favorite, with England's Harry Kane right behind at +350.

Mbappe was the +600 pre-tournament top choice at FanDuel, with Kane right behind at +700. Messi was the +1600 fifth choice behind Norway's Erling Haaland and Oyarzabal. Haaland (now +1200) also play on Monday, and Kane faces Ghana on Tuesday, and there are a lot more games to play, so the race could see continued volatility.

Messi shares the World Cup lead in goals with three, and he is joined by Canada's Jonathan David and Germany's Deniz Undav, who both had braces in their second group-stage matches. Others who have scored two goals in one game include Mbappe, Kane, the USMNT's Folarin Balogun, Cody Gakpo of the Netherlands and New Zealand's Elijah Just.

The list of players with two goals at the 2026 World Cup, which stands at 18 with Oyarzabal now on board, is an interesting group. Still, the cream typically rises to the top, and the farther a team goes in the tournament, the better chance a player has to win the Golden Boot. Mbappe won it in 2022 as France lost in the final to Messi's Argentina. The Frenchman finished with eight goals, while Messi had seven but got the trophy he really wanted.

Of the past six Golden Boot winners, only James Rodriguez of Colombia failed to reach at least the semifinals (they lost in the quarters). Ronaldo led Brazil to the world title in 2002, when he scored eight goals to win the award. Kane (2018) and Germany teammates Thomas Muller (2010) and Miroslav Klose (2006) all saw their teams lose in the semifinals.

Messi and Mbappe are the +300 favorites just ahead of Kane (+350) in the 2026 Golden Boot odds at FanDuel, and Oyarzabal is now at +700. Haaland is +1200, followed by Kai Havertz (+1600), Undav (+1800) and David (+2000).     

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2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds

As mentioned, Mbappe and Messi were the top two at the 2022 World Cup, and there is a fair chance they could end up meeting in the final again. Messi turns 39 on Wednesday, but his tactical knowledge and ability to think five steps ahead have kept him among the elite players in this tournament. His hat trick was his first since 2024, in a World Cup qualifying match against Bolivia. 

The Argentine has scored 62 goals in 67 matches with Inter Miami in MLS since joining the team before the 2023 season, and he is second all-time in goals with 914 in all competitions. Cristiano Ronaldo, who tops that list with 973, is +4500 to win the Golden Boot as he plays in his sixth World Cup. Messi still has the footwork and vision to capitalize on nearly every chance he gets, which is why he is at the top of the odds.

Mbappe and Kane are both assassins, and they are younger and more active on the pitch. Both have similar instincts to Messi and both are clinical finishers. Mbappe has 58 goals in 99 matches with the national team after his brace in the opener, and he had 40 goals in 42 matches in all competitions with Real Madrid in Spain's La Liga. Kane had 40 goals in 44 matches with Bayern Munich and is the all-time leading scorer for the Three Lions with 81 in 115 apperances. 

Messi, Mbappe and Kane are all known quantities, so their odds don't have great value, but they're going to get their goals and likely get deep into the tournament. Any of them could easily take the Golden Boot. 

Haaland is in the same stratosphere and is probably the best striker in the world. He won the English Premier League Golden Boot last season with 27 goals in 35 matches, the fourth straight year he has won it. He also is Norway's all-time leading scorer with 51 goals, but the Norwegians might not get deep enough into the knockout round for him to rack up the goals to win the award.

Several under-the-radar players are making moves, with Oyarzabal looking like the best player on the field in Spain's 4-0 victory against Saudi Arabia on Sunday. The Real Sociedad man was +1400 to open the tournament but had dropped to +4500 after the draw with Cabo Verde in the opener. The 29-year-old isn't a striker in the mold of Kane or Haaland, but he can obviously make things happen. He had 15 goals with Sociedad last season. Spain have a lot of scoring options, including Lamine Yamal, who also scored Sunday, so he might have a tough time racking up enough, even if La Roja make a serious run.

Undav is another player who might not be familiar to casual fans and bettors, and he didn't even start Saturday. He scored twice in about 30 minutes on the field, and he has been showing in the German Bundesliga that he can bury his chances. The 29-year-old had 19 goals to lead Stuttgart and was second in the league (well) behind Kane. Undav has nine goals in just 11 international appearances, but with Havertz, Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Leroy Sane among the scorers for Germany, he might struggle to repeat Saturday's success.

Havertz is the top scorer on the German team with 24 goals, and he has played for some of the top teams in Europe. He also has often frustrated those teams' fans with his knack for disappearing for short stretches. Havertz has all the tools and instincts, but he is a streaky goalscorer. He has 43 goals over six seasons in the Premier League -- three with Chelsea and the past three with Arsenal. He only played 12 matches in the Gunners' recent championship season. 

The value on the current 2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds looks like it is with Yamal and with the Brazilians. Yamal's talent is unquestioned, and the finish on his goal Sunday was exquisite. But he dealt with a hamstring injury for a couple of months leading up to this tournament, and his minutes are being managed. He didn't start the opener but was in the starting 11 on Sunday and scored just 10 minutes in. He can score quickly and in bunches, so if he's healthy he is a legitimate contender at age 18.

My pick would come from Brazil, and Matheus Cunha and Vinicius Junior are neck-and-neck for the best odds, with both at +3000 and sitting on two goals. Vinicius has scored in both games, while Cunha had two against Haiti on Friday. My money is on Vinicius, as the Real Madrid man has 11 goals for the national team and was fourth in La Liga with 16 goals last season. That was still nine fewer than Mbappe, the league's top scorer. Cunha is a force, and the passion he shows with the the Selecao is hard to beat, but he has just three international goals. The 27-year-old had 10 with Manchester United last season.

The fate of Brazil was uncertain after a 1-1 draw with a tough Morocco team in the opener, but the comprehensive 3-0 victory against Haiti showed what they are capable of. If they can get deep into the tournament, Vinicius is going to be a big reason why. Cunha is likely to play a big role as well, but I'm putting something on the more proven finisher, Vinicius, especially at these odds.   

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