World Cup futures odds: Does the United States have a legitimate chance to win the 2026 tournament?

The United States weren't among the top dozen favorites to win the 2026 World Cup before the start of the tournament. However, their performance in their first two matches changed that.

Team USA began the competition with an impressive victory, defeating Paraguay 4-1 behind a two-goal effort by Folarin Balogun. Giovanni Reyna also scored in the triumph as the Americans took an early lead in the race for first place in Group D. 

Star forward Christian Pulisic picked up an assist in the win but was unavailable for the United States' second match against Australia due to a calf injury. His absence did not deter the team at all, as it posted a 2-0 victory. For the second straight time in the tournament, the U.S. grabbed the lead on an own goal, as a pass attempt by Balogun deflected off Australia's Cameron Burgess and into the net in the 11th minute.

The Americans went up 1-0 in their World Cup opener on an own goal by Paraguay midfielder Damian Bobadilla.

Defender Alex Freeman doubled the lead against Australia when he headed in a deflected shot in the 43rd minute, and the Americans never looked back. They clinched Group D and a trip to the knockout round when Paraguay defeated Turkiye the following day.

Spain were the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup at FanDuel Sportsbook before the event got under way with odds of +450. Twelve teams were between the Spaniards and the United States, who -- along with Mexico and Uruguay -- were priced at +6000.

Those odds dropped significantly with the two victories by Team USA, whose best finish was third place in the inaugural tournament in 1930. The club is now listed at +3500, with only 10 others having better odds at FanDuel.

ODDS TO WIN 2026 WORLD CUP

The United States are one of three teams that have secured a spot in the knockout round, along with fellow co-host Mexico and Germany. They conclude the group stage with a match against Turkiye on Thursday and will meet a third-place group finisher on July 1 in the Round of 32.

Team USA certainly have given their fans hope that they can win their first World Cup title after failing to advance past the Round of 16 in each of their past two appearances. CBS Sports soccer writer James Benge believes they have a chance to go deep in this edition of the tournament.

"The draw has been constructed in such a fashion that there are a lot of good breaks that can come America's way," Benge said.

However, Benge warns against building expectations the U.S. likely won't be able to reach. He sees them as a team that shouldn't be taken lightly, but one that realistically won't get past the likes of France, Spain, England or Argentina.

"Strange things can happen in one-off football matches -- particularly if the home faithful could match the noise that Lumen Field made Friday (against Australia) -- but if this pack gets far enough to run into an apex predator, they could learn some tough lessons," Benge said. "Then again, at this moment, the players and (USMNT head coach Mauricio) Pochettino's system have got themselves to a spot where if they have to face up against the best of the best, it will be because they have already achieved something pretty impressive indeed."