Steelers vs. Bengals: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 7's Thursday Night Football matchup

Another week, another shocking result for a Thursday Night Football divisional game as the Giants stunned the Eagles, who were massive favorites coming into Week 6. Could Week 7 have more drama in store? Joe Flacco and the Bengals would love nothing more than to really heat up the AFC North with a shocking win over Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. The past few weeks of TNF should give us a strong inclination that simply taking "the better team to win and cover" is kind of silly. Divisional underdogs have been live on Thursdays this year. 

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If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Steelers vs. Bengals game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Bengals +5.5

Just like last week, there are plenty of trends to lean on here if you want to back the Steelers, especially if it's just the Steelers to win. Pittsburgh has covered three straight games, the first time Aaron Rodgers has done so since 2022. Rodgers needs just one TNF win to tie Tom Brady for the most all time (12). 

The Bengals have been outscored 140-55 over their last four games, obviously all losses. The Bengals have scored three points or fewer in the first half of four straight games. That's... not great.

But like last week: let's buck those trends! The reality is we've seen narratives completely shaken to their core over the last few Thursday nights, from the Rams losing outright to the 49ers as nearly double-digit favorites at home, to the Eagles losing outright to the Giants as more than a touchdown favorite on the road. 

The Bengals are a bad football team. But Joe Flacco's now had a full week to prepare and he at least looked competent compared to Jake Browning last week. He helped the Bengals hit the Over on their team total and cover the spread against the Packers, who I think are comparable to the Steelers on offense.

Pittsburgh operates much more slowly and runs the ball a lot more methodically and a lot less explosively. We're going to get Trey Hendrickson (it appears, barring a last-second change) and Shemar Stewart (back after an extended absence) in this game for the Bengals defense. 

This is kind of a last stand for Cincy if they want to keep those "get Joe Burrow back healthy and make a run" hopes alive. Let's take it with them. 

You can bet on the Giants to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn't win:

Steelers vs. Bengals player props

Tee Higgins Over 45.5 receiving yards

Higgins easily cleared this number last week against the Packers, even with Ja'Marr Chase nearly closing in on 100 yards for the game as well. He's a big, physical receiver who fits the mold Flacco likes to target, seeing eight throws his way in the loss to the Packers. 

The former Clemson standout has an excellent history against Pittsburgh, averaging more than 85 receiving yards per game against the Steelers in eight contests, with four touchdowns in those games. 

Cincy is going to find it tough to run against the Steelers, because the Bengals find it tough to run against everyone. That means targets aplenty for both Chase and Higgins, and we're just asking for 50 yards here. 

Darnell Washington Over 22.5 receiving yards

Washington got involved in a big way last week against Cleveland, seeing five targets and turning those looks into three catches and 62 yards. His blocking ability -- and how much he can help the run game -- is a big reason why he's seeing a massive spike in snaps the last two weeks, getting 91% and 80%t of the offensive snaps in the last two games. 

The Steelers coaching staff, specifically offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, has praised Washington and as long as he's seeing that kind of snap count with the run-heavy play-action offense Smith wants to run, the targets and opportunities should continue to be there for receptions as well. 

Cincinnati has allowed the second most targets to tight ends in the NFL, meaning this is a spot where Washington could fed in short yardage by Rodgers. Feel free to take his receiving yards as well if you're feeling frisky. 

Jaylen Warren longest reception Over 10.5 yards

Warren is the lead back for the Steelers,a team that isn't afraid to involve the backs in the passing game. Warren has caught all but one of his 14 targets this season and we have multiple outs here.

One, the Steelers come out slinging it short to the running backs hoping the Bengals are playing the run. Early screen, bam, Warren goes for a first down and change. And then we can sneak this late if the Steelers are somehow trailing and need to feed Warren in the pass game against a backed-up defense, where he's capable of pushing forward for 11 yards.

Warren's hit this number in three of his four games and if it's a close matchup, I fully expect him to be more involved in the passing game than he was last week in the smothering of Cleveland.    

TNF anytime touchdown scorer props

D.K. Metcalf +155

We highlighted Metcalf's anytime touchdown price in the "Bet It Now" column this week, but I'm not afraid to go right back to it, even if we haven't scored any CLV before Thursday morning. Obviously that could change as we get closer to kickoff time and I think it should really be closer to +115 given Metcalf's usage and the matchup.

Metcalf has been incredibly efficient with every red-zone look he's gotten (three targets, three catches, three touchdowns) and the Bengals are near the bottom in red-zone scores allowed this year. Cincy's also 27th in passing touchdowns allowed per game and Metcalf is on a heater, having scored a touchdown in four straight games. 

Metcalf is averaging a career high 18.7 yards per catch this season, with that number spiked thanks to monster 25.2- and 23.8-yard outputs in the last two weeks, respectively. Shemar Stewart is back for this game but I'm not really worried about that — Metcalf can score from anywhere at any time and is always a threat to house every reception he hauls in. 

Ja'Marr Chase +140

Look, if we're going to take Metcalf at a generous price, we kind of have to do the same with Chase, right? I don't love banking on the Bengals to do much of anything in this matchup, particularly early. But that should mean lots of throwing late and we're talking about a plus-money number on Chase to score a touchdown in a massive primetime game against a division rival. 

Let's just bet on the two alphas on the field finding the end zone.