Rams vs Seahawks: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 16's Thursday Night Football matchup

Thursday night's big divisional matchup between the Seahawks and Rams has some watchability downside to it, thanks in large part to a low total and Davante Adams potentially not playing. 

But make no mistake: this is a heavyweight battle between maybe the best two teams in the NFC. And the stakes are massive: the Rams currently have a 53% chance of securing the No. 1 seed. If they win, that number spikes to 90%. That's an enormous amount of playoff seeding leverage.

And of course, there's the NFC West title that's up for grabs: if the Seahawks win on Thursday, they can win out and take the title and host a playoff game. Lose and the Seahawks are very likely going to be on the road for Wild Card Weekend. 

Seattle's also missing tackle Charles Cross for this one, which isn't going to make Sam Darnold overcoming his issues with the Rams defense easy (four picks last game plus the ugly playoff loss while with the Vikings last year), which is notable if the Rams defense comes to play. 

We could be in for a rock fight here so be careful with touchdown scorer bets, but there's still plenty of meat on the bone for some props and best bets. Let's get some winners! 

If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Rams vs. Seahawks game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Rams +1.5

I thought long and hard about taking the Rams on the money line for this game, but I think there's a very good chance we get a TNF nail-biter between these two powerhouses. 

With the various injuries and the stout prowess on the defensive side of the ball, we shouldn't see a blowout from either team. Even with Darnold having his worst game of the season, the Seahawks still kept things close with the Rams earlier in the year.

And so I want the points with the Rams. Losing Adams is a big issue for sure. But they've got some nice young players who can step in and make some plays. Plus, the Rams have been rolling out 13 personnel a ton this year and should have multiple tight ends on the field a majority of the time. 

Matthew Stafford is the MVP and I expect him to play like it on Thursday night, even against a good Seahawks defense. Puka Nacua being healthy is massive and the Rams are running the ball really well right now with their personnel usage. 

Sean McVay's teams have scored 20+ against Mike McDonald in every single game they've matched up dating back to McDonald's days as Ravens defensive coordinator and I think something about the matchup just clicks for the Rams coach.

We'll ride our boys once more. 

Rams vs. Seahawks player props

Puka Nacua over 7.5 receptions

Nothing is ever a given in football but this one feels really good. No Adams is going to mean even more focusing in on Nacua for Stafford, even if the defense doubles down on stopping him. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams came out firing in the pass game early to try and get the Seahawks defense on its heels and we get Nacua to three or four catches early on. He's going to be the guy on third down as well and like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, even if a defense is keying in on Nacua, he's still likely to catch a ton of passes because he's such an elite short-yardage route runner. 

A mid-game visit to the medical tent is always a concern with Nacua, but it's probably our biggest fear in not hitting this prop. 

Kenneth Walker over 10.5 receiving yards

Last week's narrow win over Indy notwithstanding, Walker's seen his targets spike decently over the last month plus. He has 27 targets on the season now and 15 of those have come in the last five weeks.

That includes a three-target, three-catch, 44-yard receiving day against the Rams the last time these teams played. 

With the offensive line banged up and Darnold dealing with some demons with this defense, I think it's likely Klint Kubiak dials up some short stuff to the running backs to ease him in or alleviate the pass rush.  

This is also a very low number and it's possible we could get there with a single catch. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions

Like Nacua's receptions prop, we're not going to overthink this. JSN has been either the most dominant receiver in the league this year or the second-most dominant receiver in the league behind Nacua.

He's an elite route runner and gets open on short-yardage spots, which sets up well with how the Seahawks will have to win in the passing game. 

Like Nacua, I greatly prefer the receptions number to the yardage, even though both can obviously get to their number. JSN's hit this number in all but four games this year and had nine catches against the Rams earlier this season, despite a game that finished with just 40 total points. 

TNF anytime touchdown scorer props

Colby Parkinson

Expect Parkinson to be a very popular pick for ATD this week in many different spots on these Internet streets, because he's been on a heater when it comes to scoring touchdowns. 

Parkinson's found the end zone a whopping six times over his last six games and with Adams extremely unlikely to play in this game, there's even more end-zone equity available via the vacated red-zone targets.

This is also a nice price for someone who has been a top target for Stafford by the goal line and once Adams is ruled out, I would expect this number to drop a bit.

A.J. Barner

Tight End Thursday lives on! Barner's got double usage in terms of his ability to score, as he's a good red-zone target for Darnold, but he's also the guy the Seahawks use in their tush push packages. 

We love the idea of backing a guy who can score rushing or passing, and Barner getting potential rushing looks if the Seahawks get to the one-yard line with this price above 2-1.