Patriots vs. Jets prediction, odds, line: 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model

Nine divisional games take place in NFL Week 11, the first of which has the New York Jets visiting the New England Patriots on 'Thursday Night Football.' Both squads enter on winning streaks, with New England prevailing for the seventh straight game with a 28-23 road win at Tampa on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Jets have won back-to-back games for the first time in over a calendar year as they knocked off Cleveland, 27-20, in Week 10. New England leads the all-time series 75-56-1.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The Pats have won 13 of their last 14 home games versus the Jets, including a 25-22 win last year. The latest Jets vs. Patriots odds have New England as 11.5-point favorites. The over/under for total points is 43.5. Before making any Patriots vs. Jets picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 on a 47-32 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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Now, the model has zeroed in on New York vs. New England. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Jets:

Why the Jets can cover

New York has performed as one of the best teams in the role of an underdog, going 5-2 versus the spread this season. It has covered in three of its last four overall and is 3-1 ATS on the road, compared to New England being 2-3 ATS at home. Additionally, New York scored two non-offensive touchdowns in Sunday's win over Cleveland and could have opportunities for more of those on Thursday, considering Drake Maye is sometimes careless with the ball. The second-year quarterback has three interceptions, three fumbles (one lost) and taken 13 sacks over his last three games, while New York has just one giveaway over its last two games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Patriots can cover

The Pats take care of business versus struggling teams as they've covered in all five games against opponents with a winning percentage of .400 or lower. New England is a complete team, ranking eighth in scoring offense and sixth in scoring defense, making it one of three squads to rank in the top eight in both. The strongest unit of the team is its No. 1 run defense, which would mitigate New York's biggest offensive strength and make the Jets one dimensional. Unfortunately for New York, that dimension of the passing game ranks dead last in the league, and the Jets are averaging just 104.8 passing yards over their last four games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Patriots vs. Jets picks

For the NFL Week 11 'Thursday Night Football' game of Jets vs. Patriots, the model is leaning Over the total, projecting 53 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Jets, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Patriots spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 47-29 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.